Severe Thunderstorm Warning 34, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

171 
WWUS53 KGRR 181332
SVSGRR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
932 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015

MIC139-181345-
/O.CON.KGRR.SV.W.0034.000000T0000Z-150718T1345Z/
OTTAWA MI-
932 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 AM EDT
FOR OTTAWA COUNTY...

AT 930 AM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM FRUITPORT TO 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GRAND HAVEN TO 11
MILES NORTHWEST OF BEECHWOOD...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS. 

IMPACT...EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NORTHERN HOLLAND...    GRAND HAVEN...         HUDSONVILLE...
ZEELAND...             COOPERSVILLE...        FERRYSBURG...
FRUITPORT...           JENISON...             BEECHWOOD...
NORTON SHORES...       SPRING LAKE...         WRIGHT...
EASTMANVILLE...        ALLENDALE...           DRENTHE...
OLIVE CENTER...        MARNE...               GRAND VALLEY...
BAUER...               JAMESTOWN...           

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AND CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY.
LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 4312 8591 4321 8591 4320 8579 4277 8578
      4277 8621 4298 8622 4312 8627
TIME...MOT...LOC 1330Z 301DEG 36KT 4311 8614 4300 8611 4287 8634 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

NJJ

758 
WWUS53 KGRR 181347
SVSGRR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
947 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015

MIC139-181356-
/O.EXP.KGRR.SV.W.0034.000000T0000Z-150718T1345Z/
OTTAWA MI-
947 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR OTTAWA COUNTY HAS EXPIRED...
            
THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  HOWEVER GUSTY
WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

LAT...LON 4312 8591 4321 8591 4320 8579 4277 8578
      4277 8621 4298 8622 4312 8627
TIME...MOT...LOC 1345Z 282DEG 51KT 4311 8614 4300 8611 4287 8634 

$$

NJJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
854 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 853 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY MOVING ON
SHORE JUST NORTH OF MUSKEGON TO NEAR LUDINGTON AT AROUND 45 MPH.
THE LINE IS MOVING INTO MORE STABLE AIR AND I EXPECT THE LINE TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ONSHORE. STILL THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED HAVE
STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THEY MOVE ON SHORE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
ALSO EXPECTED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015

TODAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE YEAR WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER MID 90S INLAND OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND IT
WILL EASILY BE VERY HUMID. THE COMBINATION OF THESE WILL RESULT
IN SIGNIFICANT HEAT STRESS FOR THOSE OUTSIDE THIS AFTERNOON IN
SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT COMES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A
SECOND COLD FRONT WILL BRING YET COOLER AIR FOR THE MIDDLE OF THIS
COMING WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015

THE PRIMARY QUESTION IS WHAT HAPPENS TO THE MCS CROSSING MINNESOTAINTO
WISCONSIN THIS MORNING? DOES IT REACH LOWER MICHIGAN BY MIDDAY OR
DOES IF DISSIPATE? THEN NEXT QUESTION IS WILL THERE BE
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT? FINALLY WILL THE
TEMPERATURE REALLY MAKE IT IN TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND OF
LAKE MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON?

GIVEN THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY... AND
LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDING IT WOULD SEEM THE AIR SHOULD BE TO DRY
ALOFT FOR THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION TO REACH LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON. STILL WE WILL HAVE SURFACE BASE CAPES OVER 2500 J/KG
THIS AFTERNOON SO THE STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT TOTALLY. AS A
RESULT I HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS JUST IN CASE.

THE NAM HAS 1000/925 MB THICKNESS VALUES HIGH ENOUGH FOR HIGHS IN
THE MID 90S. THE ONLY QUESTION IS WILL THERE BE TO MUCH CLOUD
COVER. GIVEN THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING I AM THINKING ANY MCS RELATEDCLOUDS
SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT BY MIDDAY.

IT WOULD SEE WE DO HAVE A GOOD SHOT AT THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT GIVEN
THE COLD FRONT IS COMING THROUGH. PROBLEM IS THE UPPER JET LAGS
BEHIND.

IT WOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOLER MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015

A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN NEXT WEEK
WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL; HIGHS
AROUND 80 ARE EXPECTED.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT BUT
GIVEN THE TIMING AND NW FLOW ALOFT WE DON/T SEE MUCH PCPN DURING
THAT TIME. THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES FOR A FEW
DAYS RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MUCH LESS HUMIDITY IS
EXPECTED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TOO. THE ECMWF/GFS SHOW A
SHORT WAVE COMING THROUGH THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT IN CONJUNCTION
WITH SOUTH FLOW DEVELOP AND THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PCPN...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS HAPPENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015

THE LINE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WISCONSIN IS HEADING EAST AROUND 40
MPH AND WOULD REACH THE MKG TAF SITE AROUND 1430Z BASED ON OUR
TIMING TOOL. THEY WOULD REACH THE GRAND RAPIDS AROUND 1530Z. USING
THE EXPERIMENTAL VERSION OF THE HRRR (WHICH HAS BEEN DOING VERY
NICELY WITH THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THESE STORMS ALL NIGHT)
BRINGS THE STORMS INTO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN AROUND 12Z-13Z THEN
DISPATES THEM TOTALLY BY 15Z. SEEMS THE STORMS WOULD GET TO THE
MKG TAF SITE BEFORE THEY DISIPATE SO I INCLUDED THEM IN THE MKG
TAF.

ONCE THE LINE IS THROUGH SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY AS I
EXPECT THE THICK LAYERED CLOUDS FROM THE MCS TO MIX OUT BY LATE
MORNING. A SECOND LINE IS EXPECTED TO FORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
MOVE ONSHORE AROUND 23Z OR SO. I PUT THESE STORMS IN THE TAF
FORECAST TOO AS THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTANT IN FORECASTING THEST
STORM TOO. AFTER THE STORMS MOVE THROUGH I EXPECT VFR CIGS/VSBY
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015

I KEPT THE MARINE DESNE FOG ADVISORY DUE TO THE HIGH DEW POINTS.
WE MAY NEED TO LOOK AT A SMALL CRAFT ADVIOSY SUNDAY FOR WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015

STREAMFLOWS AT MOST OF OUR RIVER GAUGES ARE RUNNING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL... WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SHORT DURATION URBAN
AND LOW LYING AREA FLOODING. A FEW RIVERS COULD RISE OUT OF THEIR
BANKS IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS WITHIN CERTAIN DRAINAGE BASINS. THE MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE RIVERS TO FLOODING WILL BE THE ONES THAT WERE AFFECTED
BY HEAVY RAIN LAST MONTH... GENERALLY THE UPPER PORTION OF THE GRAND
RIVER BASIN (IONIA-LANSING-JACKSON AREAS) AND THE KALAMAZOO BASIN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ056>059-064>067-071>074.

LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

MESOSCALE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...WDM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
520 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-190930-
MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-
MONTCALM-GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-
INGHAM-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
520 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AREAS OF DENSE FOG NORTH OF A MUSKEGON TO ALMA LINE WILL MIX OUT
BY MID MORNING.

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES FOR
SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT RISK FOR
HEAT EXHAUSTION FOR ANYONE WHO IS OUTSIDE OF A SIGNIFICANT LENGHT
OF TIME.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY HAVE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. ANY STORM MAY HAVE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT MAY
LEAD TO BRIEF FLOODING OF ROADS AND SMALL STREAMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE THREAT FOR THESE STORMS IS GREATEST IN
THE INTERSTATE 69 AREA DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

LMZ844>849-190930-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI-
520 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

DENSE FOG WILL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS... SOME OF WHICH MAY HAVE GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

WDM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
814 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015

MIZ037>039-043>045-050-051-056-057-064-071-181415-
MECOSTA-VAN
BUREN-MUSKEGON-OCEANA-OSCEOLA-MASON-LAKE-KENT-NEWAYGO-MONTCALM-
MUSKEGON-OTTAWA-ALLEGAN-MASON-OCEANA-OTTAWA-
814 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015

... STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ON THE WAY ...

AT 813 AM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 30 MILES WEST OF MANISTEE TO 32 MILES EAST OF
SHEBOYGAN TO 18 MILES EAST OF ST. FRANCIS...AND MOVING EAST AT 45
MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GRAND RAPIDS...MUSKEGON...HOLLAND...BIG RAPIDS...GRAND HAVEN...
LUDINGTON...ALLEGAN...HART...NEWAYGO...EVART...WHITE CLOUD...
BALDWIN...WYOMING...KENTWOOD...WALKER...MUSKEGON HEIGHTS...EAST GRAND
RAPIDS...HUDSONVILLE...ROCKFORD AND ZEELAND.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 4382 8643 4406 8651 4417 8639 4385 8509
      4374 8509 4329 8526 4236 8577 4252 8624
      4271 8621 4302 8623 4362 8654
TIME...MOT...LOC 1213Z 290DEG 39KT 4423 8694 4382 8708 4302 8751

WDM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
902 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0847 AM     TSTM WND GST     3 NE PENTWATER          43.81N 86.38W
07/18/2015  M43 MPH          OCEANA             MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION 3 ENE PENTWATER /E6978/

0855 AM     TSTM WND GST     4 SSE HART              43.64N 86.33W
07/18/2015  M55 MPH          OCEANA             MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION 4 SSE HART /AU347/

0840 AM     TSTM WND GST     8 WNW LUDINGTON         44.00N 86.60W
07/18/2015  M45 MPH          LMZ868             MI   BUOY

            BUOY STATION LUDINGTON BUOY /45024/

&&

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
IRIS SYSTEM