Severe Thunderstorm Warning 25, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

150 
WWUS53 KGRR 140420
SVSGRR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1220 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

MIC025-077-140430-
/O.CAN.KGRR.SV.W.0025.000000T0000Z-150714T0445Z/
KALAMAZOO MI-CALHOUN MI-
1220 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN KALAMAZOO AND
WESTERN CALHOUN COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 4215 8550 4237 8489 4207 8489 4207 8547
TIME...MOT...LOC 0416Z 254DEG 20KT 4213 8516 

$$

04

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
740 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE WEATHER WILL DRY OUT ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AS NORTH WINDS DRIVE COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE PLEASANT WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES BEFORE VERY WARM AND
HUMID WEATHER MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THIS EVENING. BELIEVE THE THING TO WATCH IS THE STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN CORRIDOR FROM MSP
TO MSN... WITHIN THE AREA OF LATEST SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION. THESE
STORMS SHOULD MOVE RAPIDLY EAST/SOUTHEAST...RIDING ALONG THE
NORTHWARD LIFTING/EXPANDING INSTABILITY GRADIENT.

RUC DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40 KTS AND MU CAPES OF 2000-3000
J/KG THIS EVENING CERTAINLY SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF A CLUSTER OR
TWO OF ORGANIZED STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS SLIDING THROUGH SW LWR
MI. THE MAIN THREAT IS SOUTH OF A MKG-GRR-JXN LINE AND LOOKS TO
DIMINISH AFTER 06Z AS INSTABILITY GRADUALLY WANES.

MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ANTICIPATED ON TUESDAY AS
PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SHOWN TO BE MUCH LOWER THAN TODAY/TONIGHT...
GENERALLY 20 KTS OR LESS... SO SVR STORM POTENTIAL LOOKS VERY LOW.
THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF RAIN TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF
HWY 131 AS NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW INDUCES A LAKE SHADOW OF
COOLER/MORE STABLE AIR OVER THE WRN CWFA. BEST INSTABILITY TUESDAY
IS PROGGED TO BE SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR 15Z-21Z WITH MU CAPES OF 1000-
2000 J/KG.

SHOWERS ENDING TUESDAY NIGHT BUT WE MAY SEE SOME STRATUS ISSUES LATE
AT NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE HIGH BUILDS IN ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CLEARS THINGS OUT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES AND
A SERIES OF WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES.  MODELS
DIFFER IN HOW THEY HANDLE THE ENERGY OVER THE WEST COAST WITH THE
GFS HOLDING MORE ENERGY BACK...POSSIBLY DUE TO ITS INTERACTION WITH
HURRICANE DOLORES.

ECMWF SHOWING RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN CENTERED
AROUND THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY. MID LEVEL RIDGING
IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WILL PRODUCE SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES FOR
THE SEASON TO DATE ON SUNDAY.  850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE SHOWN TO BE
AT OR ABOVE 20 DEGREES C SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH SHOULD MAKE THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S ATTAINABLE.  DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
60S WILL ALSO BE COMMON OVER THE WEEKEND...SO IT WILL FEEL QUITE
SUMMERLIKE. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL THEN SPREAD INTO THE
REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO A PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE LATE EVENING HOURS...THAT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY LOW CIGS THAT
MAY LAST THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TUESDAY.

CURRENT TIMING BASED ON RADAR MOSAIC DATA INDICATES THE STORMS
WOULD REACH MKG AROUND 0500Z...GRR AROUND 0530Z AND FINALLY REACH
JXN BY 0730Z. THE STORMS SHOULD NOT LAST MORE THAN 2 HOURS AT ANY
ONE SITE. THE STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD GO SOUTH OF OUR TAF SITES
BUT WE WILL KEEP DILIGANT WATCH ON THIS THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND BEACH HAZARD
STATEMENTS WILL BE NEEDED FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT DUE TO THE STRONG NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

A SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN FELL THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR
WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THE HEAVIEST FELL FROM HOLLAND SOUTH
THROUGH SOUTH HAVEN...HARTFORD AND PAW PAW. THE HIGHEST TOTAL THAT
WE RECEIVED WAS FROM PAW PAW IN FACT...OF 2.25 INCHES. SOME OF THE
SMALLER STREAMS DID SEE SOME STRONG RISES IN RIVER LEVELS. THE
SOUTH BRANCH OF THE BLACK RIVER NEAR BANGOR IS UP ABOUT A FOOT AND
A HALF SINCE THE RAIN BEGAN THIS MORNING. THE HEAVIER RAIN FELL
TOWARDS THE END OF THE BASINS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...SO CRESTS
SHOULD WORK THROUGH FAIRLY QUICK AND NOT AFFECT ENTIRE RIVER
SYSTEMS.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN EVOLUTION AND AREAL
EXTENT IS LOW. THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF SEEING ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION IS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
KALAMAZOO...BLACK AND MACATAWA RIVER BASINS. ADDITIONAL BASIN
AVERAGE RAINFALL SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF TENTH TO A HALF INCH
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS ENCOMPASSES BOTH THE SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WITH AN
UPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH ON TUESDAY.

OVERALL...OUTSIDE OF SOME ADDITIONAL RUNOFF IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST
CORNER OF THE STATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
FLOODING OR HYDRO CONCERNS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
MARINE...MEADE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
518 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-140945-
MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-
MONTCALM-GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-
INGHAM-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
518 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF A SOUTH HAVEN
TO KALAMAZOO LINE. LARGE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY RISK. ELSEWHERE...THERE
COULD BE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. STORM MOTION WILL BE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. AT THIS
TIME SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT FORECASTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

LMZ844>849-140945-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI-
518 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS COULD POSE A RISK TO MARINERS. GUSTY WINDS OVER 35
KNOTS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE THE MAIN
RISKS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

WDM TJ