Special Weather Statement, NWS Green Bay, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
216 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A COLD
FRONT STRETCHING FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO THE WESTERN UPPER
PENINSULA.  THIS FRONT HAS BEEN MOSTLY INACTIVE SO FAR
TODAY...OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHOWERS OVER VILAS COUNTY EARLY THIS
MORNING.  LOW STRATUS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN HAVE HELD BACK TEMPS
SOMEWHAT...WHICH IS KEEPING INSTABILITY LIMITED TO UNDER 800 J/KG SO
FAR THIS AFTERNOON.  THE STRATUS IS SHOWING NO SIGNS OF BREAKING UP
EITHER.  BIGGER CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPANDING WITHIN THE
INSTABILITY AXIS OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...AND A ROUGH TIMING SHOWS
STORMS MOVING INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN IN THE 3-5PM RANGE.  DUE
TO THE LIMITED INSTABILITY...STILL THE SEVERE THREAT IS RATHER LOW.
BUT SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN SHIFT SOUTHEAST AS THE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW
LOOK LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE
THE SOUTHERN TIER.  HAVE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE LIKELY
RANGE...AS THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE ABLE TO INTERACT WITH SOME OF
LINGERING DAYTIME INSTABILITY.  THE RAINFALL SHOULD HELP GIVE SOME
SOUTHEAST PUSH TO THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE INTO EAST-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN LATE.  WITH THE RAINFALL AND FRONT NEARBY...THINK LOW
STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL REDEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT.  SOME DENSE FOG
LIKE EARLY THIS MORNING IS POSSIBLE IN SPOTS.

MONDAY...THE FRONT DOES NOT MAKE MUCH PROGRESS SOUTHWARD...LEAVING
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT.  THOUGH HAVE
SOME CONCERN THAT TONIGHTS RAIN WILL PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE
AREA...LEFT A CHANCE OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON
OVER THE EAST.  NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO MEAGER 0-6KM
SHEAR OF 10 KTS.  HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015

A TRANSITION IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED STARTING
TUESDAY...WHEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE ROCKIES IN A
BLOCKING PATTERN THAT WILL KEEP THE NORTHEAST U.S. UNDER A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH AND WISCONSIN UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS
SCENARIO WILL PRODUCE DRIER CONDITIONS IN GENERAL FOR NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN...ALTHOUGH MODELS AGREE ON A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
LATER IN THE WORK WEEK AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPS DOWN ON THE
NORTHWEST FLOW OUT OF CANADA.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN.  AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER MINNESOTA WILL HELP MAKE COVERAGE MORE
WIDESPREAD...SO INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR STORMS AT AUW/CWA THIS
EVENING.  UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FURTHER EAST DUE TO THE LATER
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT/UPPER DISTURBANCE AND NIGHT TIME STABILIZATION.
ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS RAINFALL...LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED
TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT AND THEN IMPROVE AGAIN BY MID MORNING ON MONDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ML
AVIATION.......MPC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
240 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-101945-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE COUNTY-LINCOLN-
LANGLADE-MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO COUNTY-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO-
WOOD-PORTAGE-WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-
CALUMET-MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE COUNTY-
SOUTHERN OCONTO COUNTY-
240 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT...BUT MAINLY DURING THE EVENING.
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS.

FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE LATE TONIGHT AND POSE A HAZARD TO
MOTORISTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY...MAINLY IN EASTERN WISCONSIN.
THE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. IT IS
TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF ANY OF THESE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT.

LMZ521-522-541>543-101945-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK
ISLAND PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-
240 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THE WATERS OF GREEN BAY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS COULD POSE A HAZARD TO BOATERS TONIGHT.

FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE LATE TONIGHT AND POSE A HAZARD TO
MARINERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS COULD POSE A HAZARD TO BOATERS MONDAY...AND AGAIN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

MPC/ML

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
304 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015

WIZ005-092030-
VILAS WI-
304 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN VILAS COUNTY UNTIL
330 PM CDT...

AT 302 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
BOULDER JUNCTION...OR 26 MILES NORTHWEST OF EAGLE RIVER...MOVING EAST
AT 20 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH...AND BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BOULDER JUNCTION...MANITOWISH WATERS...SAYNER...TROUT LAKE AND STAR
LAKE.

LAT...LON 4621 8948 4598 8940 4597 8984 4613 8988
      4623 8954
TIME...MOT...LOC 2002Z 255DEG 14KT 4607 8975

AA