Alert archive / Wisconsin / Small Craft Advisories in 2015

Small Craft Advisory 96, NWS Green Bay, WI

December 25, 2015

NWS Green Bay, WI issued this small craft advisory at Dec 25, 2015, 3:39 PM CST. It took effect at Dec 26, 2015, 9:00 AM CST. It was in force for 49 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Dec 25, 2015, 3:39 PM CST (21:39 UTC)
In effect from
Dec 26, 2015, 9:00 AM CST
Expired
Dec 28, 2015, 9:55 AM CST
In force
49 hr
Issued by
NWS Green Bay, WI

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

038 
WHUS73 KGRB 252139
MWWGRB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
339 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

...GUSTY EAST WINDS BUILDING HIGH WAVES SATURDAY...

.WINDS ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS WILL BECOME GUSTY SATURDAY...WHICH
WILL ALSO BUILD HIGH WAVES CREATING CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL
CRAFT. AN EASING OF CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY...BUT ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM MONDAY IS LIKELY TO WORSEN WINDS AND WAVES AGAIN. IF
THE SUNDAY LULL IS NOT AS SIGNIFICANT...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER.

LMZ521-522-260545-
/O.NEW.KGRB.SC.Y.0096.151226T1500Z-151227T0300Z/
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM  CEDAR RIVER TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI-
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM  OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI-
339 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM CST
SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREEN BAY HAS ISSUED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM CST
SATURDAY. 

* WINDS...EAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BACK TO NORTHEASTERLY BY
  EVENING. WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS.
  THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN AN AREA TO THE WEST OF
  WASHINGTON ISLAND IN THE AFTERNOON.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES FARTHER NORTH ALONG
  THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE BAY NEAR THE UPPER PENINSULA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OVER 20 KNOTS OR
WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY
THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LMZ541>543-260545-
/O.NEW.KGRB.SC.Y.0096.151226T1500Z-151227T1800Z/
ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI-TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI-
339 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM SATURDAY TO NOON CST
SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREEN BAY HAS ISSUED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM SATURDAY TO NOON
CST SUNDAY. 

* WINDS...EAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BACK TO NORTHEASTERLY BY
  EVENING. WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS.
  THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE WATERS OFF OF DOOR
  COUNTY.

* WAVES...4 TO 7 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES SATURDAY AFTERNOON
  AND EARLY SATURDAY EVENING TOWARDS THE OPEN WATERS EAST OF DOOR
  COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OVER 20 KNOTS OR
WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY
THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
11 follow-up statements
584 
WHUS73 KGRB 260311
MWWGRB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
911 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

...GUSTY EAST WINDS BUILDING HIGH WAVES SATURDAY...

.WINDS ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS WILL BECOME GUSTY SATURDAY...WHICH
WILL ALSO BUILD HIGH WAVES CREATING CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL
CRAFT. AN EASING OF CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY...BUT ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM MONDAY IS LIKELY TO WORSEN WINDS AND WAVES AGAIN. IF
THE SUNDAY LULL IS NOT AS SIGNIFICANT...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER.

LMZ521-522-261115-
/O.CON.KGRB.SC.Y.0096.151226T1500Z-151227T0300Z/
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM  CEDAR RIVER TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI-
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM  OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI-
911 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM CST
SATURDAY...

* WINDS...EAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BACK TO NORTHEASTERLY BY 
  EVENING. WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND GUSTS UP TO 30 
  KNOTS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN AN AREA TO 
  THE WEST OF WASHINGTON ISLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. 

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES FARTHER NORTH 
  ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE BAY NEAR THE UPPER PENINSULA. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OVER 20 KNOTS OR
WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY
THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LMZ541>543-261115-
/O.CON.KGRB.SC.Y.0096.151226T1500Z-151227T1800Z/
ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI-TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI-
911 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM SATURDAY TO
NOON CST SUNDAY...

* WINDS...EAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BACK TO NORTHEASTERLY BY 
  EVENING. WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND GUSTS UP TO 30 
  KNOTS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE WATERS 
  OFF OF DOOR COUNTY. 

* WAVES...4 TO 7 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES SATURDAY 
  AFTERNOON AND EARLY SATURDAY EVENING TOWARDS THE OPEN WATERS 
  EAST OF DOOR COUNTY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OVER 20 KNOTS OR
WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY
THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
197 
WHUS73 KGRB 261030
MWWGRB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
430 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

...A RATHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH WATERS
EXPECTED...

.A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRACKING SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL
RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NORTHEAST AND NORTH WINDS UNTIL
THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

LMZ521-522-541>543-261830-
/O.EXT.KGRB.SC.Y.0096.151226T1500Z-151228T1200Z/
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM  CEDAR RIVER TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI-
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM  OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI-
ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI-TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI-
430 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO
6 AM CST MONDAY...

* WINDS...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS TODAY.
  WINDS WILL BACK NORTH FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN SHIFT BACK
  TO THE NORTHEAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

* WAVES...WAVES WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FEET TODAY. WAVES WILL
  DIMINISH A BIT SUNDAY AS WINDS BACK NORTH. 

* A PERIOD OF EVEN STRONGER WINDS...POSSIBLY REACHING GALE
  FORCE...COULD OCCUR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT
  ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED...OR POSSIBLY UPGRADED TO A
  GALE WARNING FOR THAT PERIOD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OVER 20 KNOTS OR
WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY
THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

JS
908 
WHUS73 KGRB 261556
MWWGRB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
956 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

...A RATHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH WATERS
EXPECTED...

.A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NORTHEAST AND NORTH
WINDS AND ROUGH WATERS UNTIL THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

LMZ521-522-541>543-270000-
/O.CON.KGRB.SC.Y.0096.000000T0000Z-151228T1200Z/
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM  CEDAR RIVER TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI-
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM  OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI-
ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI-TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI-
956 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY...

* WINDS...NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30
  KTS TODAY. WINDS WILL BACK NORTH FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN
  SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTHEAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

* WAVES...BUILDING TO 3 TO 6 FEET THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME HIGHER
  WAVES POSSIBLE ON LAKE MICHIGAN. WAVES WILL DIMINISH A BIT LATE
  TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS WINDS BACK NORTH.

* A PERIOD OF EVEN STRONGER WINDS...POSSIBLY REACHING GALE 
  FORCE...COULD OCCUR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT 
  ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED...OR POSSIBLY UPGRADED TO A 
  GALE WARNING FOR THAT PERIOD. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OVER 20 KNOTS OR
WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY
THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

BERSCH
843 
WHUS73 KGRB 262130
MWWGRB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
330 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH WATERS EXPECTED...

.A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NORTHEAST AND NORTH
WINDS AND ROUGH WATERS UNTIL THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

LMZ521-522-541>543-270530-
/O.CON.KGRB.SC.Y.0096.000000T0000Z-151228T1200Z/
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM  CEDAR RIVER TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI-
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM  OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI-
ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI-TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI-
330 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY...

* WINDS...NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 
  KTS TODAY. WINDS WILL BACK NORTH FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN 
  SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTHEAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. 

* WAVES...BUILDING TO 3 TO 6 FEET THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME 
  HIGHER WAVES POSSIBLE ON LAKE MICHIGAN. WAVES WILL DIMINISH A 
  BIT LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS WINDS BACK NORTH. 

* A PERIOD OF EVEN STRONGER WINDS...POSSIBLY REACHING GALE
  FORCE...COULD OCCUR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT
  ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED...BUT COULD POTENTIALLY REQUIRE
  AN UPGRADE TO ACCOUNT FOR GALES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OVER 20 KNOTS OR
WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY
THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
408 
WHUS73 KGRB 270303
MWWGRB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
903 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH WATERS EXPECTED...

.A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NORTHEAST AND NORTH
WINDS AND ROUGH WATERS UNTIL THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

LMZ521-522-541>543-271115-
/O.EXT.KGRB.SC.Y.0096.000000T0000Z-151228T1800Z/
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM  CEDAR RIVER TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI-
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM  OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI-
ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI-TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI-
903 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY...

* WINDS...NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30
  KTS TODAY. WINDS WILL BACK NORTH FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN
  SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

* WAVES...BUILDING TO 3 TO 6 FEET THIS AFTERNOON WITH WAVES HIGHER
  ON LAKE MICHIGAN THAN ON THE BAY OF GREEN BAY. WAVES WILL
  DIMINISH A BIT LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS WINDS BACK NORTH.

* A PERIOD OF EVEN STRONGER WINDS...POSSIBLY REACHING GALE
  FORCE...COULD OCCUR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT
  ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED...BUT COULD ALSO RESULT IN AN
  UPGRADE FOR GALES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OVER 20 KNOTS OR
WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY
THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
104 
WHUS73 KGRB 271028
MWWGRB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
428 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH WATERS EXPECTED...

.A STRONG STORM SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO THE AREA
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR MONDAY
EVENING...WHEN GUSTS COULD APPROACH STORM FORCE.

LMZ521-522-541>543-271830-
/O.EXT.KGRB.SC.Y.0096.000000T0000Z-151228T1500Z/
/O.NEW.KGRB.GL.A.0010.151228T1500Z-151229T1200Z/
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM  CEDAR RIVER TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI-
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM  OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI-
ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI-TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI-
428 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY...
...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREEN BAY HAS ISSUED A GALE
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
MONDAY NIGHT. 

* WINDS...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...
  REACHING GALE FORCE FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
  NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR STORM
  FORCE...ARE EXPECTED MONDAY EVENING.

* WAVES...WAVES WILL REACH 4 TO 7 FEET ON THE BAY...AND 8 TO 12
  FEET ON THE LAKE. THE HIGHEST WAVES WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OVER 20 KNOTS OR
WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY
THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS HAS
SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR
MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

JS
970 
WHUS73 KGRB 271547
MWWGRB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
947 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH WATERS EXPECTED...

.A STRONG STORM SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO
THE AREA THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR
MONDAY EVENING...WHEN GUSTS COULD APPROACH STORM FORCE.

LMZ521-522-541>543-280000-
/O.CON.KGRB.SC.Y.0096.000000T0000Z-151228T1500Z/
/O.CON.KGRB.GL.A.0010.151228T1500Z-151229T1200Z/
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM  CEDAR RIVER TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI-
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM  OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI-
ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI-TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI-
947 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
MONDAY NIGHT...

* WINDS...NORTHEAST TO EAST 10 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS
  THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THEN REACHING GALE FORCE FROM LATE
  MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGEST
  WINDS...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR STORM FORCE...ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
  EVENING.

* WAVES...2 TO 4 FEET THIS AFTERNOON...BUILDING TO 4 TO 7 FEET ON
  THE BAY...AND 8 TO 12 FEET ON THE LAKE THROUGH THE DAY ON
  MONDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES MONDAY NIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OVER 20 KNOTS OR
WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY
THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS HAS
SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR
MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

BERSCH
481 
WHUS73 KGRB 272113
MWWGRB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
313 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH WATERS EXPECTED...

.A STRONG STORM SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO
THE AREA THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR
MONDAY EVENING...WHEN GUSTS COULD APPROACH STORM FORCE.

LMZ521-522-541>543-280515-
/O.EXT.KGRB.SC.Y.0096.000000T0000Z-151228T1800Z/
/O.UPG.KGRB.GL.A.0010.151228T1500Z-151229T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KGRB.GL.W.0020.151228T1800Z-151229T1200Z/
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM  CEDAR RIVER TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI-
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM  OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI-
ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI-TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI-
313 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREEN BAY HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 AM CST
TUESDAY. 

* WINDS...NORTHEAST TO EAST 10 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS THIS
  AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THEN REACHING GALE FORCE FROM AROUND MID
  DAY MONDAY THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS...
  WITH GUSTS TO NEAR STORM FORCE...ARE EXPECTED MONDAY EVENING.

* WAVES...2 TO 4 FEET THIS AFTERNOON...BUILDING TO 5 TO 8 FEET
  MONDAY NIGHT ON THE BAY...HIGHER TOWARDS THE NORTH. WAVES ON THE
  LAKE SHOULD BUILD HIGHER...8 TO 12 FEET ON THE LAKE...WITH THE
  HIGHEST WAVES MONDAY NIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS OR GREATER ARE
EXPECTED. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED
THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR
TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OVER 20 KNOTS OR
WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY
THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
990 
WHUS73 KGRB 280348
MWWGRB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
948 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH WATERS EXPECTED...

.A STRONG STORM SYSTEM TRACKING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS TO THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR MONDAY EVENING...WHEN GUSTS COULD
APPROACH STORM FORCE.

LMZ521-522-541>543-281200-
/O.CON.KGRB.SC.Y.0096.000000T0000Z-151228T1800Z/
/O.CON.KGRB.GL.W.0020.151228T1800Z-151229T1200Z/
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM  CEDAR RIVER TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI-
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM  OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI-
ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI-TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI-
948 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 AM CST
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...NORTHEAST TO EAST 15 TO 25 KTS TONIGHT...THEN REACHING
  GALE FORCE FROM AROUND MID DAY MONDAY THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
  THE STRONGEST WINDS... WITH GUSTS TO NEAR STORM FORCE...ARE
  EXPECTED MONDAY EVENING.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 TONIGHT...BUILDING TO 5 TO 8 FEET BY MONDAY NIGHT
  ON THE BAY...HIGHER TOWARDS THE NORTH. WAVES ON THE LAKE SHOULD
  BUILD HIGHER...TO 8 TO 12 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS OR GREATER ARE
EXPECTED. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OVER 20 KNOTS OR
WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY
THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
481 
WHUS73 KGRB 281039
MWWGRB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
439 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015

...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH WATERS EXPECTED...

.A STRONG STORM SYSTEM TRACKING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BRING STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS TO THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO OCCUR THIS EVENING...WHEN GUSTS COULD APPROACH STORM
FORCE.

LMZ521-522-541>543-281845-
/O.CON.KGRB.SC.Y.0096.000000T0000Z-151228T1800Z/
/O.CON.KGRB.GL.W.0020.151228T1800Z-151229T1200Z/
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM  CEDAR RIVER TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI-
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM  OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI-
ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI-TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI-
439 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TODAY...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS INCREASING TO 35 KT GALES BY
  AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUING TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS...
  WITH GUSTS TO NEAR STORM FORCE...ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING.

* WAVES...BUILDING TO 5 TO 8 FEET ON THE BAY...AND TO 8 TO 12 FEET
  ON THE LAKE. THE HIGHEST WAVES WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS OR GREATER ARE
EXPECTED. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

JS
397 
WHUS73 KGRB 281555
MWWGRB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
955 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015

...POWERFUL STORM BRINGING VERY GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE WAVES
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

.A STRONG STORM SYSTEM TRACKING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BRING STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS TO THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO OCCUR THIS EVENING...WHEN GUSTS COULD APPROACH STORM
FORCE.

LMZ521-522-541>543-290000-
/O.CAN.KGRB.SC.Y.0096.000000T0000Z-151228T1800Z/
/O.EXT.KGRB.GL.W.0020.151228T1555Z-151229T1200Z/
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM  CEDAR RIVER TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI-
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM  OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI-
ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI-TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI-
955 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY...

* WINDS...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS INCREASING TO 35 KTS GALES BY
  AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS TO 45 KTS...AND THEN CONTINUING TONIGHT.
  THE STRONGEST WINDS...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR STORM FORCE...ARE
  EXPECTED THIS EVENING.

* WAVES...BUILDING TO 5 TO 8 FEET ON THE BAY...AND TO 8 TO 12 FEET
  ON THE LAKE. THE HIGHEST WAVES WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT. WAVES WILL
  BEGIN TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS OR GREATER ARE
EXPECTED. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

BERSCH

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this small craft advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Green Bay, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Dec 25, 10:48 AM CST, 4 hours 51 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 25, 10:48 AM CST, 4 hours 51 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1048 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

QUIET WEATHER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...THEN SNOW NORTH AND SOME LIGHT
MIXED PRECIPITATION CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL TOMORROW AND TOMORROW
NIGHT.

AMPLIFIED UPPER REGIME IS IN PLACE ACRS NOAM...WITH A SHARP RIDGE
JUST OFF THE WEST COAST...BROAD AND DEEP TROFFING OVER THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL CONUS...AND A STG RIDGE FM THE SERN STATES NEWD INTO
THE ATLANTIC. THE FLOW WL SEPARATE IN INCREASINGLY DISTINCT
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE
DEVELOPING NRN STREAM WL LOSE AMPLITUDE...WHILE THE SRN STREAM
REMAINS AMPLIFIED AND VERY ENERGETIC.

THE LOCATION OF THE FCST AREA DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MAIN UPPER
TROF WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF THE ACTIVE WX. THERE WILL BE
SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN...SO ABOVE NORMAL AMOUNTS ARE
LIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE POSSIBLY
DROPPING OFF SOME AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

QUIET WX IS EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. THE MAIN ISSUE IS CLDS.
GUIDANCE INDICATES CLDS WL DECREASE. STLT SUGGESTS A TREND IN THAT
DIRECTION...BUT IT HAS BEEN SLOW AND THERE ARE STILL A LOT OF CLDS
ACRS THE RGN. CONT/D WITH DECREASING CLDS...BUT GENERALLY KEPT
VALUES IN SKYCON GRIDS HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE.

THE MAIN FCST ISSUE WL BE THE PCPN EVENT LATE TNGT INTO THE START
OF THE LONG-TERM PART OF THE FCST. THE DEEPENING OF ANOTHER SHRTWV
INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION WL RESULT IN BACKING OF THE UPR FLOW
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE MIDWEST. AT UPPER LEVELS...THIS HELPS TIGHTEN
THE GRADIENT OVER THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION...LEADING TO A
STRENGTHENING JET MAX TO OUR NE.

IN TERMS OF THE DETAILS...THE ACTUAL FORCING LOOKS A LITTLE
DISJOINTED. THE RRQ OF THE UPR JET...LOW-LEVEL ISENT LIFT IN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE...AND MID-LVL SUPPORT FM EJECTING SHRTWV ARE NOT
TOTALLY COINCIDENT IN TIME OR SPACE. IN ADDITION...IT APPEARS PCPN
WL HAVE TO FIGHT THROUGH SOME DRY AIR CIRCULATING BACK THROUGH ERN
WI AT LOW-LEVELS. OVERALL...THE TREND ON THE 00Z GUIDANCE WAS TO
SLOW DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE PCPN...SO ADJUSTED THE FCST TOWARD
THIS IDEA.

PCPN TYPE IS ALSO AN ISSUE OVER ALL BUT THE N. FCST SOUNDINGS OFF
SEVERAL OF THE MODELS SUGGEST SATURATION MAY NOT EXTEND DEEP
ENOUGH TO ENCOUNTER AIR SUFFICIENTLY COLD TO RESULT IN ICE CRYSTAL
FORMATION. SO EVEN RADAT-ZERO PROFILES COULD HAVE LIQUID WATER
FALLING AS R-/ZR- DEPENDING ON SFC TEMPS. STUCK WITH ALL SNOW FOR
ABOUT THE NRN 1/2 OF THE FCST AREA...AND A MIX CHANGING TO MAINLY
RAIN TO THE S. SNOWFALL FCST ACRS THE N IS SOLIDLY ADVISORY
CRITERIA. BUT WITH SNOW NOT STARTING IN EARNEST UNTIL THE THIRD
PERIOD AND STILL SOME QUESTION ON PLACEMENT OF HIGHEST AMNTS...WL
FOREGO POSTING IT RIGHT NOW.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

SPLIT FLOW NOTED AT 500MB WILL KEEP THE ARCTIC AIR MAINLY NORTH OF
THE BORDER DURING THE PERIOD. FIRST SYSTEM TO EXIT THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AS IMPRESSIVE 300MB JET STREAK INCREASES TO 160
TO 180 KNOTS NORTH OF THE STATE. LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH...AND A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN...LIGHT
SNOW OR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE REGION EXCEPT FOR THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE REGION WHERE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID SATURDAY EVENING.

LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...850MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO -14C AND TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST FOR A LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT OVER FAR NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. HAVE NOT SEEN TOO MANY OF THESE EVENTS THIS WINTER DUE
TO THE UNUSUALLY MILD CONDITIONS. HAVE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SNOW BELT REGION OF VILAS COUNTY.
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER SUNDAY TO BRING A
DIMINISHING TREND OR END TO THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

ONE WAY TO MANUFACTURE COLD AIR IS TO HAVE A FRESH SNOW PACK.
EXPECTING A DECENT SNOW PACK (AT LEAST FOR THE WINTER 2015-16
STANDARDS) ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT...COMBINED WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH. A QUICK LOOK AT THE
RHINELANDER WEATHER BOOK INDICATED THE LAST DECEMBER WITHOUT A
SUBZERO TEMPERATURE OCCURRED IN 1959...AND ONLY HAS HAPPENED THREE
TIMES SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1908.

TURNING TO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM EJECTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. THE
BIG QUESTION IS WHERE IN THE GREAT LAKES. ECMWF IS STRONGER AND
FURTHER NORTHWEST THAT WOULD BRING AN END TO THE SNOWLESS WINTER
ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. THIS MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD
CONTINUITY FROM RUN TO RUN. HOWEVER...THE OPERATIONAL GFS MODEL
AND THE CANADIAN MODEL ARE WEAKER AND FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
KEEP THE AREA DRY. DID GLANCE AT THE 24 QPF GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
AND THERE WERE SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATED A FURTHER NORTH
SOLUTION THAN THE OPERATION GFS MODEL. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR AS
SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BROUGHT THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST QPF
RIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. FOR THE RECORD... THE ECMWF IS
CRANKING OUT NEARLY AN INCH OF QPF...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
IF THIS SOLUTION DOES VERIFY...THE SNOW SEASON ACROSS NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN WILL HAVE AN ABRUPT START TO THE SEASON. STAY TUNED!

THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF HAS ANOTHER SYSTEM ON ITS HEELS FOR NEXT
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES BY LATER NEXT WEEK
WILL RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL WHICH WILL BE A SHOCK TO SOME AS
TEMPERATURES ARE AVERAGING 12 TO 14 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE FIRST 24 DAYS OF THIS MONTH.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1047 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

LOWER END MVFR CIGS WITH PATCHY AREAS OF IFR CIGS KEEPING A FIRM
GRIP OVER THE AREA UNDER AN INVERSION LATE THIS MORNING.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO DECREASE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT BREAK IN THE
CLOUDS UNDER THE SURFACE RIDGE. WHILE A FEW BREAKS MAY OCCUR OVER
THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON IN THE HIGHER ELEVATION AND SOME BETTER
MIXING...WILL HEAD TOWARD THE DIRECTION OF MORE CLOUDS THROUGH
TONIGHT. WILL ALSO INTRODUCE SOME MVFR VSBYS LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE RETURN FLOW.
WILL ALSO ADD A LIGHT MIX OF ZL/FLURRIES TO THE WEST AS THE AIR
MASS SLOWLY SATURATES.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......TDH
Hazardous weather outlook, Dec 25, 3:44 AM CST, 11 hours 55 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
344 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-260945-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE COUNTY-LINCOLN-
LANGLADE-MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO COUNTY-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO-
WOOD-PORTAGE-WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-
CALUMET-MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE COUNTY-
SOUTHERN OCONTO COUNTY-
344 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN NORTH-
CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT AS LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS ACROSS
THAT AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO SNOW. A TOTAL ACCUMULATION OF 3
TO 5 INCHES IS ANTICIPATED. SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS COULD
EXIST AT TIMES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WHERE
THE PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO FALL AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. A
LITTLE FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN AT THE
ONSET.

HAZARDOUS TRAVEL IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
DUE TO AN ACCUMULATING SNOW. A MORE POTENT SYSTEM COULD BRING A
SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOW TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF
THE STORM...THUS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE
HEAVIER BAND OF SNOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

LMZ521-522-541>543-260945-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK
ISLAND PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-
344 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THE WATERS OF GREEN BAY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

SKOWRONSKI/ECKBERG

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Dec 25, 2:46 PM CST, 53 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
246 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

WIZ005-010>012-018-260500-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-LINCOLN-
246 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

...SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
BRING SNOW TO NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME 3 TO 5 INCHES IS EXPECTED NORTH OF A LINE
FROM RHINELANDER TO CRANDON TO IRON MOUNTAIN WITH THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS OVER VILAS COUNTY. A SNOWFALL OF 2 TO 3 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS A LINE FROM MERRILL TO ANTIGO TO
WAUSAUKEE. THE SNOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS.

ANYONE PLANNING TRAVEL SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD MONITOR
LATER FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS FOR UPDATED INFORMATION.

WIZ013-019>021-030-031-035>037-073-074-260500-
NORTHERN MARINETTE COUNTY-LANGLADE-MENOMINEE-
NORTHERN OCONTO COUNTY-MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-WAUPACA-
SOUTHERN MARINETTE COUNTY-SOUTHERN OCONTO COUNTY-
246 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

...MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
SATURDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF SATURDAY EVENING...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN AND SNOW ON SATURDAY. AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE. SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN
SATURDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SLIPPERY SPOTS MAY DEVELOP SATURDAY
MORNING.

ANYONE PLANNING TRAVEL SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD MONITOR
LATER FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS FOR UPDATED INFORMATION.

WIZ022-038>040-045-048>050-260500-
DOOR-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-
MANITOWOC-
246 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

...MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN SATURDAY
BEFORE TAPERING OFF SATURDAY EVENING...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
BRING A LIGHT MIX OF SNOW...FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE MORNING BEFORE
TURNING TO MAINLY RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
SLIPPERY SPOTS MAY DEVELOP SATURDAY MORNING.

ANYONE PLANNING TRAVEL SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD MONITOR LATER
FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS FOR UPDATED INFORMATION.

TDH

The office that day

Everything else NWS Green Bay, WI issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 25, 2:52 PM CSTWinter Weather AdvisoryGRBForest, Langlade, Lincoln, Marathon, Oneida, Vilas29 hr

Nearby

Small Craft Advisories in Wisconsin, 2015Every small craft advisory in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.