Small Craft Advisory 41, NWS Green Bay, WI

300 
WHUS73 KGRB 070149
MWWGRB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
849 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

...INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...

.INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD
FRONT WILL BUILD WAVES ON LAKE MICHIGAN...PRODUCING HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT ON SUNDAY.

LMZ541>543-071000-
/O.CON.KGRB.SC.Y.0041.150607T1000Z-150608T0000Z/
ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI-TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI-
849 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 7 PM CDT
SUNDAY...

* WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH 15 TO 25 KTS SUNDAY MORNING...THEN 
  VEERING SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 

* WAVES...BUILDING TO 3 TO 6 FT SUNDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OVER 20 KNOTS OR
WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY
THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

BERSCH

834 
WHUS73 KGRB 070801
MWWGRB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
301 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

...INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...

.INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD
FRONT WILL BUILD WAVES ON LAKE MICHIGAN...PRODUCING HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT ON SUNDAY.

LMZ541>543-071615-
/O.CON.KGRB.SC.Y.0041.150607T1000Z-150608T0000Z/
ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI-TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI-
301 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH 15 TO 25 KTS SUNDAY MORNING...THEN 
  VEERING SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 

* WAVES...BUILDING TO 3 TO 6 FT SUNDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OVER 20 KNOTS OR
WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY
THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

144 
WHUS73 KGRB 071505
MWWGRB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1005 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

...GUSTY WINDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD
FRONT WILL BUILD WAVES ON LAKE MICHIGAN...PRODUCING HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND BEGIN TO DIMINISH 
LATE IN THE DAY.

LMZ541>543-072200-
/O.CON.KGRB.SC.Y.0041.000000T0000Z-150608T0000Z/
ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI-TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI-
1005 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...SOUTH 15 TO 25 KTS...THEN VEERING SOUTHWEST THIS
  AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TOWARD EVENING.

* WAVES...4 TO 6 FT...SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 5 FT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OVER 20 KNOTS OR
WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY
THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

AK

085 
WHUS73 KGRB 072001
MWWGRB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
301 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

...GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE WAVES DIMINISHING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

.THE GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE WAVES WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA.

LMZ541>543-080000-
/O.CON.KGRB.SC.Y.0041.000000T0000Z-150608T0000Z/
ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI-TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI-
301 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...WEST TO SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 KTS...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS
  POSSIBLE...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FT...SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 3 FT THIS EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OVER 20 KNOTS OR
WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY
THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

BERSCH

038 
WHUS73 KGRB 072359
MWWGRB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
659 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

...WINDS AND WAVES CONTINUE TO DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING...

LMZ541>543-080100-
/O.EXP.KGRB.SC.Y.0041.000000T0000Z-150608T0000Z/
ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI-TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI-
659 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

WINDS AND WAVES CONTINUE TO DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING AND
CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT.

$$

BERSCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
244 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

ANOTHER ROUND OF WET WEATHER FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND.
WARM NEXT WEEK.

THE UPPER FLOW ACRS NOAM WL UNDERGO CONSOLIDATION DURING THE EARLY
PART OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE MAIN WESTERLIES SETTING UP NR THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. SOME SEPARATION OF THE FLOW IS LIKELY AGAIN
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OUT WEST WHERE
AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FORM.

WIDESPREAD RAIN DURING THE MORNING MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES BACK A
BIT TOMORROW...THEN OTHER THAN ON ANY ADDITIONAL DAYS WITH
WIDESPREAD PCPN...EXPECT READINGS AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE NUMEROUS
OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN DURING THE PERIOD...SO PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE
LIKELY TO END UP ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS TO BE ON INCREASING PCPN TRENDS THIS
EVENING...HOW MUCH PCPN WL FALL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND WL
THERE BE A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE PCPN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AREA OF HI PRES EXTENDED
FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES INTO SW QUEBEC...AN AREA OF LOW PRES
SITUATED OVER N-CNTRL SD AND A CDFNT STRETCHED FROM THE LOW PRES
S-SW INTO THE CNTRL HI PLAINS. A S-SE SFC WIND BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES WAS TAPPING GULF MOISTURE WITH DEW POINTS CLIMBING INTO
THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS. RADAR MOSAIC ALREADY
PICKED UP ON SEVERAL AREAS OF SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
UPR MIDWEST. THE CLOSEST PCPN WAS LOCATED ACROSS MN AND WRN IA.

CLOUDS WL CONT TO OVERSPREAD AND THICKEN OVER THE FCST AREA THIS
EVENING AS THE HI PRES LOSES ITS GRIP ON THE GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BEGIN TO TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE
NWD INTO WI. AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET (UP TO 50 KTS) AIMED AT
WI...COMBINED WITH AN EWD MOVING SHORTWAVE TROF...WL BRING
INCREASING ISEN LIFT AND A RESULTING INCREASE IN PCPN CHCS TO
CNTRL WI TOWARD MIDNGT AND ERN WI DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS LOOK RATHER PEDESTRIAN WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AT 5.5 C/KM AND LI'S ABOVE ZERO...THUS ANTICIPATE MAINLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHWRS WITH ONLY SOME EMBEDDED NON-SEVERE
TSTMS TNGT. MIN TEMPS WL BE 10 TO 20 DEGS MILDER THAN LAST NGT
WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPR 40S TO LWR 50S EAST...MID TO
UPR 50S CNTRL PARTS OF THE STATE.

INGREDIENTS FOR A SOAKING RAIN ARE ALL THERE FOR SUNDAY MORNING AS
MOISTURE CONTS TO FEED INTO THE REGION WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID
50S TO LWR 60S/PW VALUES > 1"...LIFT FROM A CDFNT REACHING CNTRL
WI TOWARD MIDDAY/ERN WI MID-AFTERNOON...FORCING FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROF AND BETTER INSTABILITY WITH CAPES
CLIMBING > 1K J/KG AND LI'S FALLING AS LOW AS -5. A WIDESPREAD
0.50" TOTAL OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS UNDER ANY
TSTMS. THE SEVERE RISK STILL LOOKS MINIMAL AS CLOUDS/PCPN PLACE A
LIMIT TO DIURNAL WARMING AND FURTHER ATMOSPHERIC DESTABILIZATION.
THE PCPN SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH ACROSS CNTRL WI SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE CDFNT MOVES AWAY WITH PERHAPS A PEEK OF LATE DAY SUN. HAVE
NUDGED MAX TEMPS UP A FEW DEGS DUE TO THE MILD START TO THE DAY
AND LACK OF ANY CAA BEHIND THE CDFNT. LOOK FOR READINGS TO RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPR 60S NEAR LAKE MI...LWR 70S NORTH...MID TO UPR
70S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

ANY SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN
BATCH OF STORMS COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING. CARRIED MENTION TO MIDNIGHT...THOUGH WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF ISOLATED SHRA MANAGED TO LINGER PAST MIDNIGHT.

CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT STORMS MON
AFTN. FORCING WL BE PROVIDED BY SECONDARY SHRTWV DROPPING SE ACRS
THE AREA. GIVEN THE LINGERING MOISTURE AND COOLING TEMPS
ALOFT...THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS. WL CONT TO MENTION IN THE HWO.

CONVECTION COULD AGAIN LINGER INTO THE EVENING MONDAY...BUT
SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. QUIET WX IS EXPECTED
LATE MON NGT AND TUE. THOUGH IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT
STRENGTHENING WNWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING THE NEXT SHRTWV AND
UPPER SPEED MAX TOWARD THE AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. SOME OF THE
MODELS WERE GENERATING PCPN ACRS THE N BEFORE 00Z WED. STUCK WITH
DRY FCST FOR NOW...THOUGH IT MAY BE NECESSARY TO ADD POPS TO N-C
WI IF LATER MODEL RUNS CONT TO FAVOR A FASTER ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM.

NO SIG CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FCST INITIALIZATION GRIDS
GENERATED FROM A BROAD BLEND OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS. EXPECT TEMPS
ABOUT 4-8 F DEG ABV NORMAL. TIMING OF PCPN CHCS WL BE DIFFICULT
GIVEN THE INITIALLY LOW AMPLITUDE ALOFT AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LIKELY LINGERING NR THE RGN.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

HI PRES OVER SE ONTARIO CONTS TO SLOWLY PULL AWAY FROM THE GREAT
LAKES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WL CONT TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WEATHER OVER NE WI IS STILL
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DETERIORATE OVER CNTRL WI TOWARD THE MIDNGT
HOUR AND ERN WI TOWARD DAYBREAK AS AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET
BRINGS MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INTO WI. SHWRS WITH EMBEDDED
TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH VSBYS DROPPING INTO THE MVFR RANGE AND
CIGS AS LOW AS IFR. UNSETTLED WEATHER TO PERSIST THRU AT LEAST
SUNDAY MORNING AS A CDFNT SWEEPS ACROSS WI. BOTH CIGS/VSBYS TO
REMAIN IFR/MVFR THRU MIDDAY WITH AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR/VFR
CONDITIONS LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CNTRL WI.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....AK
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......AK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
255 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-072000-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE COUNTY-LINCOLN-
LANGLADE-MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO COUNTY-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO-
WOOD-PORTAGE-WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-
CALUMET-MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE COUNTY-
SOUTHERN OCONTO COUNTY-
255 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT.
WHILE NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL...WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING.
SOME OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAINFALL.

SCATTERED STORMS ARE LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES DURING THE MIDDLE
TO LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE
WHETHER ANY OF THE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE.

SOUTH WINDS WILL GENERATE CHOPPY WATERS AND LEAD TO HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS ON LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

LMZ521-522-541>543-072000-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK
ISLAND PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-
255 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THE WATERS OF GREEN BAY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS COULD POSE A HAZARD TO BOATERS AT TIMES SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...AND AGAIN DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

LOW VISIBILITY DUE TO FOG COULD POSE A HAZARD TO BOATERS SUNDAY.

KALLAS/SKOWRONSKI