Severe Thunderstorm Warning 53, NWS Green Bay, WI

031 
WWUS53 KGRB 141927
SVSGRB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
227 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015

WIC029-141936-
/O.EXP.KGRB.SV.W.0053.000000T0000Z-150814T1930Z/
DOOR WI-
227 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN DOOR COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 230 PM CDT...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...
AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. THEREFORE THE 
WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. HOWEVER SMALL HAIL....GUSTY WINDS TO 
50 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 4533 8687 4534 8689 4534 8690 4535 8691
      4527 8698 4521 8698 4523 8704 4515 8704
      4516 8705 4519 8712 4526 8711 4525 8708
      4530 8706 4530 8699 4542 8694 4540 8685
      4543 8681
TIME...MOT...LOC 1925Z 302DEG 27KT 4542 8707 

$$

ECKBERG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1145 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015

AREA RADARS THIS MORNING SHOW A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
DROPPING OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THIS ELEVATED CONVECTION WAS
WORKING WITH SOME PLENTY OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND MAY PERSIST
THROUGH DAY BREAK BEFORE LIKELY DISSIPATING. A SIMILAR CLUSTER OF
LIGHT SHOWERS WERE SLIDING OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. FURTHER NORTH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE NOTED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND
SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTHWARD. CONVECTION MAINLY  DRIVEN BY WARM AIR
ADVECTION INTO THIS MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF A VORT JUST
NORTH OF INL EARLY THIS MORNING...PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE STATE TODAY. AT 08Z DID NOTICE A LONE STORM POPS OVER
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AS THIS VORT APPROACHES THE ARROWHEAD OF
MINNESOTA. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL CIN TO OVERCOME EARLY THIS MORNING
SO CONVECTION SHOULD BE MINIMAL.

CHALLENGE WITH THE FORECAST TODAY WILL BE PCPN TRENDS AS THE CIN
ERODES...ALONG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE VORT. WILL CONTINUE TO CONFINE
BEST POPS OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAY TIME
HEATING. SOME MODELS HAVE TRENDED WITH A SLOWER DEPARTURE OF THE
PCPN THIS EVENING DUE TO A LINGERING H850 BOUNDARY. WILL
COMPROMISE WITH KEEPING LOWER END POPS GOING OVER CENTRAL AND EAST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS EVENING.

POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE REMAINS ISOLATED. DEEPER LAYER SHEAR WILL
LIKELY INCREASE TODAY AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTH. STORMS
MAY ALSO TEND TO FOCUS ON MESOSCALE LAKE BOUNDARIES THIS
AFTERNOON.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE STATE FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY FOR A CONTINUED DRY FORECAST...BUT WITH A CONTINUED
WARM HUMID AIR MASS.

MUGGY AIR MASS EARLY THIS MORNING ALSO AIDING WITH FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE FAR NORTH. WILL CONTINUE THE FOG MENTION
TONIGHT AS DEWPOINTS DO NOT FALL OFF MUCH AND WINDS DIMINISH WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE REGION.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015

TIMING OF CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IS THE MAIN CONCERN
DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD. AN UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND AND
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOUT 10F TO 15F ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS STARTING
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. MOST OF THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED
TO PASS NORTH OF THE STATE BUT RAINFALL COULD STILL BE SIGNIFICANT
WITH A SHOT OF GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

MOSTLY DRY AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA BY
TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM A BIT ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO THE NORTHWEST AND DRAG A WARM
FRONT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS AN UPPER TROUGH FROM
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE PLAINS...RESULTING
IN A MORE SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF
STORMS SHOULD BE ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS
AND DROPPING VISIBILITIES INTO THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORY FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF TIME. THE STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH OR END BY MID TO LATE
EVENING. AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT DUE TO
FOG WITH POCKETS OF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID-MORNING ON
SATURDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......ECKBERG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1101 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-151615-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE COUNTY-LINCOLN-
LANGLADE-MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO COUNTY-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO-
WOOD-PORTAGE-WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-
CALUMET-MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE COUNTY-
SOUTHERN OCONTO COUNTY-
1101 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
A FEW STORMS OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO
DETERMINE IF ANY OF THESE STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

FORMAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...SPOTTER ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH...
HAIL OVER PEA SIZE AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH.

LMZ521-522-541>543-151615-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK
ISLAND PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-
1101 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THE WATERS OF GREEN BAY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
THAT COULD POSE A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD TO BOATERS. STRONG GUSTY WINDS
AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE THE MAIN HAZARDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

ECKBERG