Severe Thunderstorm Warning 4, NWS Green Bay, WI

576 
WWUS53 KGRB 292316
SVSGRB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
616 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

WIC067-078-083-292345-
/O.CON.KGRB.SV.W.0004.000000T0000Z-150529T2345Z/
MENOMINEE WI-OCONTO WI-LANGLADE WI-
616 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN MENOMINEE...NORTHWESTERN OCONTO AND EAST CENTRAL
LANGLADE COUNTIES...

AT 615 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MOUNTAIN...OR 
26 MILES EAST OF ANTIGO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. THE STORM HAS 
BEEN WEAKENING SOMEWHAT. 

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MOUNTAIN...LAKEWOOD...CROOKED LAKE...BOULDER LAKE CAMPGROUND AND BOOT
LAKE CAMPGROUND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4511 8864 4525 8873 4537 8839 4517 8829
      4512 8855
TIME...MOT...LOC 2315Z 247DEG 24KT 4521 8860 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

RDM

683 
WWUS53 KGRB 292341
SVSGRB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
641 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

WIC067-078-083-292350-
/O.EXP.KGRB.SV.W.0004.000000T0000Z-150529T2345Z/
MENOMINEE WI-OCONTO WI-LANGLADE WI-
641 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN MENOMINEE...
NORTHWESTERN OCONTO AND EAST CENTRAL LANGLADE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT
645 PM CDT...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 4511 8864 4525 8873 4537 8839 4517 8829
      4512 8855
TIME...MOT...LOC 2339Z 247DEG 24KT 4521 8860 

$$

RDM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
227 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH HELP FROM WEAK SHORTWAVES...ONE OVER SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN...AND ANOTHER OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.  AS THE WAVE OVER
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN LIFTS NORTHEAST...SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD SPREAD
ACROSS THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKE SHORE AREAS WHERE ML CAPES ARE
BUILDING TO GREATER THAN 400 J/KG.  SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER N-C WISCONSIN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.  GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITHIN ANY STORMS...ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL QUICK INCH OF RAIN. WITH
A JUICY AIRMASS IN PLACE...PRECIP TRENDS AND AMOUNTS ARE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

TONIGHT...THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN DURING THE EVENING.  AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OCCURRING IN AN
AREA OF DIMINISHING INSTABILITY.  IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A
MINIMUM OF SHEAR RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  SO POTENTIAL FOR ANY
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LOW...BUT GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL
HAIL LOOKS REASONABLE WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.  BEHIND THE
FRONT...STRONG MID-LEVEL FGEN COMBINED WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE
RIGHT REAR QUAD OF AN UPPER JET...AND PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.50 WILL
LEAD TO A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.  THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE RAIN WITH SOME INTERACTION
FROM DAYTIME INSTABILITY LEADS ME TO THINK THE HIGHEST RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL BE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE A WIDESPREAD
INCH...LOCALLY UP TO 2 INCHES WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS...COULD FALL.
ELSEWHERE...A WIDESPREAD HALF INCH TO INCH LOOKS REASONABLE.  NORTH
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY LATE BEHIND THE FRONT AS COLDER AIR RUSHES
IN.  LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH.

SATURDAY...THOUGH THE FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE REGION BY THE START
OF SATURDAY MORNING...RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE UPPER JET AND MID-LEVEL
FGEN WILL BE HANGING OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN.  HAVE INCREASED PRECIP
CHANCES THERE FOR THE MORNING.  MODELS ARE ALSO SLOWER EXITING
PRECIP IN THE AFTERNOON...AND HAVE KEPT A SMALL CHANCE OVER EAST-
CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH 21Z.  AS A COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS BUILDS
INTO THE REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN
TODAYS READINGS.  WITH BLUSTERY CONDITIONS...HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

THE POTENTIAL FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES WILL BE THE PRIMARY
ISSUE THIS WEEKEND AS A VERY COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DRIFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT. NEXT PCPN CHANCES FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE NEXT ISSUE AS
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM.

THE RIDGE AXIS OF THE A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED
TO BE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN DURING THE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
HOURS. THE LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...DRY AIR AND H850 TEMPS LESS
THAN +2 C PROVIDE A LIKELY SCENARIO OF FROST OR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES. ANTICIPATE A HEADLINE WILL BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS AFTER DEALING WITH THE STRONG COLD FRONT AND CONVECTION.
AIR MASS MAY STILL SUPPORT SOME FROST OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT BUT NOT AS WIDESPREAD.

TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK AS
AN UPPER RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE CANADIAN
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE REGION WHILE THE RETURN
WARM AIR ADVECTION FLOW AND CHANCES OF CONVECTION IS PRIMARILY
CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OF A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES. SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THIS
NORTHERN PLAINS CONVECTION MAY BE ABLE TO DRIFT INTO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO AFFECT TEMPERATURES.

CONVECTION MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST PORTION
OF WISCONSIN ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
PROGGED TO SHIFT A BIT MORE EAST. RETURN FLOW 850 WARM AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS WELL
AS INTO THE FAR WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. EASTERN SECTIONS MAY
CONTINUE TO BE PROTECTED BY THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SO
HIGH PCPN CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED OVER THE NORTHWEST. PROGS IN
SOME AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE SUBSIDING AND A RETURN TO A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND PCPN CHANCES SPREADING EASTWARD LATE NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.  SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD RIGHT ALONG AND
ALSO BEHIND THE FRONT.  HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.  AS THE RAIN INTENSITY INCREASES...UPSTREAM OBS SHOW
CIGS FALLING TO IFR BEHIND THE FRONT.  THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BEFORE ENDING LATE TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...AND BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON
OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

MOST RIVERS LEVELS PRIOR TO THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN TODAY/TONIGHT
WERE MAINLY STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING. AN ANTICIPATED WIDESPREAD 1
INCH RAINFALL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WILL REVERSE THAT TREND
WITH SOME RIVERS LIKELY RISING TO NEAR FS AND PERHAPS A FEW
EXCEEDING INTO THE MINOR FS LEVELS BY SATURDAY MORNING. LOCALLY
HIGHER 2 INCHES AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THIS EVENING. A MORE WIDESPREAD 1 INCH
RAINFALL IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT OR POST FRONTAL REGION...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 INCHES DUE TO EMBEDDED STORMS.

TDH.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......MPC
HYDROLOGY......TDH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
230 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-301930-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE COUNTY-LINCOLN-
LANGLADE-MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO COUNTY-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO-
WOOD-PORTAGE-WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-
CALUMET-MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE COUNTY-
SOUTHERN OCONTO COUNTY-
230 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL...WHICH COULD RESULT IN PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND
IN LOW-LYING AREAS. HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD ALSO RESULT IN FURTHER
RISES IN THE LEVELS OF ALREADY SWOLLEN RIVERS OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD POSED BY THE
STORMS. BUT A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

WIDESPREAD FROST CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN
SATURDAY NIGHT AS MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S SATURDAY NIGHT. PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT MAY DROP INTO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.

AREAS OF FROST ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN SUNDAY
NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 30S.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT RAINFALL TOTALS GREATER THAN ONE
INCH AND ANY FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREEN
BAY.

LMZ521-522-541>543-301930-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK
ISLAND PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-
230 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THE WATERS OF GREEN BAY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

FOG COULD POSE A HAZARD TO BOATERS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ON THE
LAKE. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS TODAY MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS.

CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT ARE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT ARE LIKELY SATURDAY...AND
POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

MPC/TDH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
222 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

WIZ022-037>040-045-048>050-073-074-292045-
BROWN-WAUPACA-DOOR-KEWAUNEE-SOUTHERN MARINETTE
COUNTY-OUTAGAMIE-WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-MANITOWOC-WAUSHARA-SOUTHERN OCONTO
COUNTY-
222 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...DEVELOPING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AFFECT
EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

AT 214 PM CDT...A CLUSTER OF DEVELOPING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM TWO RIVERS TO OSHKOSH TO NEAR WISCONSIN DELLS...WERE
MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.

UP TO DIME SIZE HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS LIKELY
WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GREEN BAY...APPLETON...OSHKOSH...MANITOWOC...MARINETTE...STURGEON
BAY...WAUPACA...BERLIN...KEWAUNEE...WAUTOMA...BAY SHORE PARK...
MENASHA...KAUKAUNA...LITTLE CHUTE...NEW LONDON...KIMBERLY...BERLIN...
CLINTONVILLE...OCONTO AND CHILTON.

TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 4398 8950 4424 8945 4425 8923 4463 8922
      4468 8861 4459 8861 4459 8825 4485 8825
      4486 8842 4509 8759 4508 8758 4493 8784
      4455 8802 4454 8794 4485 8758 4481 8734
      4510 8732 4524 8701 4389 8773
TIME...MOT...LOC 1914Z 181DEG 33KT 4431 8770 4410 8928

TDH