Gale Watch 1, NWS Green Bay, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
250 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2015

A COUPLE ROUNDS OF LIGHT SNOW THIS WEEKEND...THEN BITTERLY COLD
NEXT WEEK.

THE FLOW ACRS NOAM IS SPLIT...WITH DOMINANT NRN STREAM ACRS
CANADA/THE NRN CONUS...AND A SRN STREAM ACRS ABOUT THE SRN 2/3 OF
THE CONUS. THE FLOW OVER THE ERN PAC WL REMAIN SPLIT AND BLOCKY
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT THE FLOW ACRS NOAM WL CONSOLIDATE AS SRN
STREAM UPR TROF EJECTS NEWD FM THE DESERT SW AND MERGES WITH THE
NRN STREAM. THE RESULT WL BE A STRONG AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW
REGIME ACRS MOST OF NOAM...WITH RIDGING NR THE WEST COAST AND A
DEEP TROF OVER THE EAST.

THIS IS A VERY WINTRY PATTERN...THE MOST NOTABLE ASPECTS OF WHICH
WILL BE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LIGHT SNOW BRACKETED BY PERIODS OF
INTENSE COLD. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR THE PERIOD WILL PROBABLY
END UP NEAR NORMAL. AFTER A RELATIVELY MILD START...TEMPERATURES
WILL END UP WELL BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2015

IT HAS CERTAINLY BEEN A CHALLENGE ZEROING IN ON THE SNOW CHANCES
WITH THE WEEKEND SYSTEM. THE NEW WRINKLE TODAY IS A LEAD SHRTWV
EJECTING OUT OF THE SWRN U.S. TROF THAT NOW SEEMS LIKELY TO BRING
A BAND OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. THE BAND MAY BE FAIRLY QUICK MOVING AND THE
DURATION OF THE SNOW MAY NOT BE GREAT...BUT IT COULD SNOW FAIRLY
HEAVILY AS THE BAND MOVES THROUGH. RAISED POPS CONSIDERABLY OVER
THE SE 1/2 OF THE FCST AREA...WHERE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES IS NOW
EXPECTED. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FM W-E TOMORROW MORNING...LIKELY
ENDING AS FZDZ AS THE MID-LVL MOISTURE GETS STRIPPED OFF TO THE
NE.

FAIRLY QUIET WX NOW SEEMS LIKELY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY
TOMORROW...WITH JUST SOME OCNL LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES AND FZDZ. THE
WARMING OF OUTDOOR SURFACES WL LIKELY LAG AIR TEMPERATURES AS WE
COME OUT OF THE RECENT COLD SNAP...SO STUCK WITH FZDZ INSTEAD OF
CHANGING IT TO DZ NEAR THE LAKE WHERE TEMPS REACH/BREAK FREEZING
TOMORROW. USED NON-STANDARD DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGHOUT
THE SHORT-TERM...BASED ON BROAD-BASED BLEND OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2015

MUCH OF NEXT WEEK TO BE DOMINATED BY A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW
CONSISTING OF A WRN NOAM UPR RDG AND AN E-CNTRL NOAM UPR TROF.
MODELS DO SHOW SIGNS THAT THE RDG WL BREAK DOWN LATE NEXT WEEK...
NEVERTHELESS NE WI WL BE LOOKING AT WELL-BELOW TEMPS WITH MIN
TEMPS IN THE SINGLE OR DOUBLE-DIGITS BELOW ZERO AND DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS AT TIMES. PCPN CHCS TO COME AT REGULAR INTERVALS WITH THE
FAST NW FLOW OVERHEAD. INITIAL SNOW CHCS SAT NGT/SUNDAY WITH
PHASING SYSTEM...A CLIPPER SYSTEM MON NGT/TUE AND A WEAK CDFNT
AROUND THU NGT. WE ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR N-CNTRL WI FOR POSSIBLE
LAKE EFFECT AT TIMES WHEN WINDS TURN TO THE NW.

AS THE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHES EWD INTO THE UPR MS VALLEY/
MIDWEST...THIS WL HELP TO LIFT THE SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF
QUICKLY TO THE NE...REACHING THE GREAT LAKES BY LATE SAT NGT. AS
THIS IS ONGOING...A SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE FROM THE MID-MS
VALLEY TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND DEEPEN IN THE PROCESS. EXPECT
THE NEXT BAND OF SNOW TO OVERSPREAD NE WI LATER IN THE EVENING
THRU THE OVRNGT HOURS. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE FROM TODAY'S MODEL
OUTPUTS IS THE SLIGHTLY FARTHER EWD TRACK OF THE SFC LOW. THIS NOW
KEEPS THE HEAVIER SNOWS FARTHER TO OUR SE WITH ONLY A GENERAL 1-3
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ANTICIPATED BY DAYBREAK. ANOTHER FACTOR TO
DEAL WITH WL BE THE INCREASING NW WINDS LATE SAT NGT AS THE SFC
LOW STRENGTHENS TO OUR EAST. THIS WOULD CREATE BLOWING/DRIFTING OF
THE NEW SNOW AND POTENTIALLY SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS.

MAIN FOCUS FOR SUNDAY TO BE THE ONSET OF AN ARCTIC BLAST THAT WL
SETTLE OVER THE REGION FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WL STEADILY
FALL THRU THRU THE DAY AND WHEN COUPLED WITH A NW WIND AT 10 TO 20
MPH (WITH HIGHER GUSTS)...WIND CHILL VALUES BY LATE IN THE DAY WL
RANGE FROM ZERO TO 5 BELOW LAKESIDE...20 TO 25 BELOW ZERO OVER
CNTRL WI. AS FOR PCPN...THERE WL STILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT
SYNOPTIC SNOW OVER THE FCST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW TURNS TO LAKE EFFECT
OVER N-CNTRL WI AS 8H TEMPS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TO HAVE PLUNGED TO
-28C. PROBLEM FOR A HEAVIER SNOW IS THE TRAJS WHICH WL BE W-NW...
NOT THE PREFERRED N-NW. THIS WOULD KEEP HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS NORTH
OF THE MI BORDER.

THE NEXT FCST ISSUE TO DEAL WITH WL BE THE BITTER COLD AND
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS FOR SUNDAY NGT INTO MON. EXACTLY
HOW COLD WE CAN GET COULD DEPEND ON HOW MUCH FRESH SNOW FALLS GIVE
THE CURRENT BARE GROUND OVER PARTS OF CNTRL AND E-CNTRL WI. UNDER
THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE FCST AREA WL HAVE AT LEAST A COUPLE OF
INCHES OF NEW SNOW...MIN TEMPS SUNDAY NGT COULD APPROACH 25 BELOW
ZERO OVER N-CNTRL WI...5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO NEAR LAKE MI. ADD IN A 5
TO 15 MPH W-NW WIND AND WIND CHILL READINGS TO RANGE FROM 25 TO 30
BELOW ZERO ALONG THE LAKE...30 TO 40 BELOW ZERO ELSEWHERE. WIND
CHILL ADVYS WL PRACTICALLY BE A GIVEN AND WARNINGS ARE A GOOD
POSSIBILITY OVER CNTRL/NRN WI. MONDAY MAY NOT SEE MAX TEMPS REACH
ZERO (EXCEPT ALONG LAKE MI) WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO. AT LEAST MONDAY WL BE QUIET WITH HI PRES
SLIDING BY TO OUR SOUTH.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM FCST TO MOVE FROM
THE NRN HI PLAINS SE TO THE MIDWEST MON NGT AND INTO THE ERN GREAT
LAKES ON TUE. THERE IS SOME MODEST ISEN LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG MID-LEVEL Q-G FORCING FROM A
SHORTWAVE AND EXTRA LIFT INITIALLY BY THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
UPR JET. SNOW RATIOS WL BE HIGH (AT LEAST 20:1) WITH THE ARCTIC
AIR IN PLACE...THUS WE MAY BE LOOKING AT AN ADVY FOR FLUFFY SNOW
TOTALS. HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY FOR CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI
WITH CHC POPS ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS CLIPPER IS FAST-MOVING...
THUS LINGERING SNOW WL CONT INTO TUE MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF
IN THE AFTERNOON. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...A REINFORCING SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED AS THE UPR TROF OVER E-CNTRL NOAM DEEPENS.
WL HAVE TO WATCH TRAJS ONCE AGAIN FOR N-CNTRL WI FOR POTENTIAL
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHWRS. RIGHT NOW...IT WOULD SEEM TRAJS WOULD
AGAIN HAVE TOO MUCH OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO SERIOUSLY IMPACT
VILAS CNTY.

BITTER COLD CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER NE WI TUE NGT/WED WITH 8H
TEMPS DOWN IN THE 25 TO 30 BELOW ZERO(C) RANGE. OTHER THAN A
CONTINUED SMALL CHC FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS FOR N-CNTRL WI...THIS
PERIOD WL BE DRY AS A LARGE CANADIAN HI PRES MOVES SE INTO THE
CNTRL CONUS. WIND CHILL ADVYS/WARNINGS WL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER
MOST OF THE FCST AREA TUE NGT/WED MORNING. MAX TEMPS AWAY FROM
LAKE MI ON WED WL AGAIN STRUGGLE JUST TO REACH ZERO.

AFTER ANOTHER FRIGID NGT WED NGT (WITH LESS WIND)...THE WRN NOAM
UPR RDG BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON THU WHICH WL SEND THE COLDEST
ARCTIC AIR BACK INTO CANADA. MODELS INDICATE A CDFNT TO MOVE THRU
THE WRN GREAT LAKES EITHER LATE THU OR THU NGT WHICH MAY BRING A
SMALL CHC OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO NE WI. ANOTHER HI PRES AREA
TO THEN BUILD SE TOWARD WI ON FRI AND BRING QUIET CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPS FINALLY ABLE TO REACH THE TEENS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1058 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2015

SIG CHANGES WL BE FORTHCOMING WITH THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. FIRST
OFF...NEED TO ALIGN THE INITIAL 6 HRS OF THE TAFS TO ACCOUNT FOR
SC DECK ADVANCING IN FM THE W. LATER TNGT...WL BE TAKING CIGS AND
VSBYS MUCH LOWER THAN PREV TAF PKG AS AREA OF SNOW...LIKELY ENDING
AS FZDZ...WL BE MOVG ACRS THE AREA.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
319 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2015

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-032130-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-LINCOLN-LANGLADE-
MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-
WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-
MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN OCONTO-
319 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MAINLY
CENTRAL...EAST-CENTRAL...AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS A BAND OF SNOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS
THE SNOW DIMINISHES TO FREEZING DRIZZLE.

HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE
IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT WILL
FALL...BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR AT MOST LOCATIONS. ANYONE WITH TRAVEL
PLANS THIS WEEKEND SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AS BITTERLY COLD AIR BEGINS TO
POUR INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING STORM. DANGEROUSLY
COLD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS COULD REDEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGS SNOW TO THE AREA. A
REINFORCING SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...LIKELY RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD SNOWFALL MEASUREMENTS TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREEN BAY.

LMZ521-522-541>543-032130-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK
ISLAND PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-
319 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THE WATERS OF GREEN BAY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO
POSSIBLE.

SKOWRONSKI/KALLAS