Frost Advisory 10, NWS Green Bay, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
637 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015

LIGHT RAIN SHOULD LEAVE THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
AROUND DAYBREAK. LOTS OF MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL WISCONSIN SHOULD MOVE AWAY AROUND NOON FROM WEST TO EAST
AS RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF STRONG UPPER JET LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO
CANADA. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL.

SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR THIS EVENING SETTING THE STAGE FOR A FROST
OR FREEZE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE QUESTION IS
WHETHER LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL FORM SOUTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND
MOVE INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THE LAKE WATERS AND 850MB ARE COOL ENOUGH FOR CLOUDS YET THE AIR
UPSTREAM IS DRY. CONTINUED THE FREEZE WATCH DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT. IF IT LOOKS LIKE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TONIGHT
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FREEZE WARNING FOR NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN
AND A FROST ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE
STATE.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE SUNNY AND COOL WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
NEAR THE BAY AND LAKE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL IN MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015

AFTER ONE OF THE WARMEST SEPTEMBERS ON RECORD...CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH RIDGE
AXIS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE...PERSISTENT NORTH/NORTHEAST
FLOW EXPECTED. FROST IS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH AND
WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLE AGAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE SAME REGION.

WITH THE PERSISTENT NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WARMER WATERS OF THE BAY OF GREEN BAY AND LAKE MICHIGAN...
850MB TO WATER/BAY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES AROUND 13 C NOTED.
IT IS BEGINNING TO BE THE TIME OF YEAR WHERE LAKE CLOUDS
DEVELOP DUE TO THE COLDER AIR ALOFT. LOOOKING AT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...850MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MEAGER TO
SUPPORT CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...LONGER FETCH OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND
THE SPINE OF THE BAY OF GREEN BAY WOULD SUPPORT SOME CLOUD COVER.
DID RAISE CLOUDS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE
REGION FOR FLOW OVER THE WARMER WATERS.

DID LOWER MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
SUSPECT LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO LOWER MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVER
THE WEEKEND. ONE ITEM TO NOTE LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK IS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM EAST OF THE STATE COULD RETROGRADE
SLIGHTLY AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.
DID NOT ADD RAIN TO THE FORECAST DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE. WILL WATCH IT OVER THE NEXT FEWS DAYS
TO SEE IF THERE IS ANY CONTINUITY IN THE MODELS BEFORE ADDING TO
THE FORECAST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015

SKIES SHOULD CLEAR TODAY AS A COLD FRONT EXITS EASTERN
WISCONSIN. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH FROST POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
WIZ005-010>012-018-019.
&&

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......RDM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
331 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-300845-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE COUNTY-LINCOLN-
LANGLADE-MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO COUNTY-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO-
WOOD-PORTAGE-WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-
CALUMET-MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE COUNTY-
SOUTHERN OCONTO COUNTY-
331 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
LATE TONIGHT. SENSITIVE VEGETATION COULD BE HARMED IF NOT BROUGHT
INSIDE OR COVERED. AREAS OF FROST ARE ALSO POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

FROST IS POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY. PERSONS SHOULD
COVER COLD SENSITIVE PLANTS TO PROTECT THEM FROM A FROST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

LMZ521-522-541>543-300845-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK
ISLAND PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-
331 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THE WATERS OF GREEN BAY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY MAY PRODUCE WAVES HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT AT
TIMES.

RDM/ECKBERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
913 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 AM     HEAVY RAIN       MANITOWOC               44.08N 87.66W
09/29/2015  M1.10 INCH       MANITOWOC          WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

TH