Frost Advisory 1, NWS Green Bay, WI

382 
WWUS73 KGRB 130200
NPWGRB

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
900 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2015

...A COLD NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION...

.HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT AND
BRING DECREASING CLOUDS WITH DIMINISHED WINDS. AS A RESULT...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
30S...WITH WIDESPREAD FROST FORMATION EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK.

WIZ020-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-131200-
/O.CON.KGRB.FR.Y.0001.150513T0500Z-150513T1200Z/
MENOMINEE-MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-
KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-
SOUTHERN OCONTO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KESHENA...WAUSAU...WISCONSIN RAPIDS...
STEVENS POINT...APPLETON...GREEN BAY...ALGOMA...WAUTOMA...
OSHKOSH...CHILTON...TWO RIVERS...CRIVITZ
900 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2015

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM
CDT WEDNESDAY...

* TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

* SENSITIVE VEGETATION OR OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE DAMAGED IF LEFT 
  UNPROTECTED. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS EXPECTED. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

&&

$$

JS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1231 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2015

SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS WISCONSIN TODAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH NOON. SNOW MAY BE MIXED WITH THE RAIN IN THE FAR
NORTH. CLOUDY SKIES AND BLUSTERY WINDS WILL MAKE FOR A COOLER DAY
WITH HIGHS ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BIG QUESTION TONIGHT IS
CLOUD COVER AND ITS EFFECT ON FROST POTENTIAL. CLOUDS WILL
PROBABLY LIMIT FROST POTENTIAL IN THE NORTH AND EAST WITH THE BEST
CHANCE IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN. MIGHT NEED A FROST ADVISORY FOR
CENTRAL WISCONSIN FOR TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE PARTLY SUNNY AND COOL
WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2015

ACTIVE PATTERN SETTING UP DURING THE PERIOD WITH TWO MAIN SYSTEMS
TO CONTEND WITH. FIRST SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION MAINLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS THE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A
LINGERING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON MONDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT EAST-WEST BAND OF RAIN INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN WHERE THE AXIS WILL SET UP.
WILL IT BE ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH...OR SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE THIS
BAND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE SMALL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE. MAIN SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. BELIEVE THE WRF
IS WAY TOO FAST AND TRENDED TOWARD A GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODEL
BLEND. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM
APPROACHES TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. LATEST MODEL RUNS TONIGHT
INDICATE THUNDER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...THUS REMOVED ANY MENTION OF THUNDER THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TRICKY ON FRIDAY DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
CLEARING TAKES PLACES FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...REMOVED ANY
MENTION/DEPICTION OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL NEED TO WATCH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONGER STORMS IN THE REGION. GFS
MODELS DOES SHOW INCREASING 0-6 KM SHEAR AND AROUND 1000 CAPES
ON SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2015

COMBINATION OF DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROF AND DAYTIME INSTABILITY
HAVE ALLOWED SCT LIGHT RAIN SHWRS TO PERSIST ACROSS ALL OF NE WI
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH EARLY THIS
EVENING AS INSTABILITY WANES UPON SUNSET AND HI PRES BUILDS INTO
THE WRN GREAT LAKES. CURRENT HI-END MVFR/LOW-END VFR CIGS TO
DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU
THE REST OF THE NGT INTO WED. DO ANTIPATE SOME MID/HI CLOUDS TO
ARRIVE LATE TNGT/WED BEHIND THE HI PRES AS WARMER AIR STARTS TO
MAKE A PUSH BACK TOWARD WI.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......KALLAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
355 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2015

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-130900-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-LINCOLN-LANGLADE-
MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-
WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-
MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN OCONTO-
355 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PATCHY FROST IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT AS
SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DIMINISH. CLOUDS OR A STEADY BREEZE ARE EXPECTED
TO REDUCE THE RISK OF FROST ELSEWHERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

LMZ521-522-541>543-130900-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK
ISLAND PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-
355 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THE WATERS OF GREEN BAY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TODAY DUE TO GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

RDM/RCE