Wind Chill Advisory 2, NWS Goodland, KS

901 
WWUS43 KGLD 270431
WSWGLD

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
931 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015


COZ091-092-271300-
/O.CON.KGLD.WC.Y.0002.150227T0900Z-150227T1800Z/
KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BURLINGTON...CHEYENNE WELLS
931 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM MST
FRIDAY...

* WIND CHILL...AS LOW AS 16 BELOW ZERO DUE TO TEMPERATURES FROM 4
  TO 9 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO...AND SOUTHEAST WIND AT 15 TO 25 MPH
  WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
WILL COMBINE TO CREATE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OF MINUS 15 TO MINUS
25 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT. FROST BITE CAN OCCUR IN LESS THAN
30 MINUTES...AND HYPOTHERMIA MAY OCCUR IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT
TAKEN.  MAKE SURE YOU WEAR A HAT AND GLOVES IF YOU VENTURE
OUTDOORS.

&&

$$

858 
WWUS43 KGLD 271022
WSWGLD

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
322 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

COZ091-092-271800-
/O.CON.KGLD.WC.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-150227T1800Z/
KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BURLINGTON...CHEYENNE WELLS
322 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS
MORNING...

* WIND CHILL...AS LOW AS 15 BELOW DUE TO TEMPERATURES 4 TO 10
  ABOVE...AND SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
  MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
WILL COMBINE TO CREATE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OF MINUS 15 TO MINUS
25 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT. FROST BITE CAN OCCUR IN LESS THAN
30 MINUTES...AND HYPOTHERMIA MAY OCCUR IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT
TAKEN.  MAKE SURE YOU WEAR A HAT AND GLOVES IF YOU VENTURE
OUTDOORS.

&&

$$

120 
WWUS43 KGLD 271539
WSWGLD

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
839 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

COZ091-092-271645-
/O.CAN.KGLD.WC.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-150227T1800Z/
KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BURLINGTON...CHEYENNE WELLS
836 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
CHILL ADVISORY.

TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILL READINGS WILL GRADUALLY RISE THE REST
OF TODAY ACROSS CHEYENNE AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES. 
 
$$
MENTZER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1026 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW BROAD
MEAN TROUGH ACROSS THE CONUS..WITH SHARP N-NW FLOW EXPECTING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE
1042 SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTING FROM THE CANADIAN/US
BORDER WITH ITS INFLUENCE EXTENDING SOUTH OVER OUR CWA AND
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RADAR SHOWS LIGHT SNOW TRANSITIONING
ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS OF
COLORADO...WITH THE NORTHEAST EXTENT OVER OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN
CWA.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE CWA THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. THIS
APPEARS TO BE DRIVEN MOSTLY BY WEAK FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND
OVERRUNNING OVER THE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE. ANY
SNOWFALL THIS MORNING THOUGH THE AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE VERY
LIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE FORCING DO NOT APPEAR TO BE
IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA. BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING A QUICK MOVING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE CWA WITH SOUNDINGS
SHOWING DEEP SATURATION WITHIN THE DENDRITIC LAYER OCCURRING BY
LATE TONIGHT- EARLY FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR
CWA. BETTER SIGNAL APPEARS TO BE ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 24 WHERE
1-2" OF SNOW IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. WHILE I CANT RULE OUT 3" TOTAL
SNOWFALL FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING IN OUR FAR
SOUTH...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR ADVISORY ISSUANCE.

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SHORTWAVE
IN THE 12-15Z TIME PERIOD FROM THE WEST TO EAST WITH DAYTIME GUSTS
FRIDAY AROUND 30 MPH. IMPACT COULD BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR WIND
CHILLS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING NEAR OR BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WHILE
THE AIR MASS IS CERTAINLY COLD ENOUGH TO RAISE THE POTENTIAL FOR
-15F WIND CHILLS...HOWEVER WE MAY NOT SEE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER MOST OF THE CWA. INCREASING THICK CLOUD
COVER/POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COULD LIMIT OVERNIGHT COOLING AND
LOWERS CONFIDENCE. CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS WIND CHILLS JUST
OUTSIDE CRITERIA...WITH LOWEST VALUES IN A 2-3HR WINDOW AROUND 12Z
FRIDAY MORNING.

TROUGH BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN US ALLOWING H3 JET TO
SHIFT NORTH AND STRONGER FORCING TO BUILD NORTH OVER OUR CWA BY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA.
STRONGEST PRECIP SIGNAL IS IN OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST CWA...WHERE
CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS POSSIBILITY OF 3" SNOW FALL
(ROUGHLY ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 83). WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS AS
THIS COULD BE OUR BEST CHANCE TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
SNOWFALL IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

REGARDING TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BE IN
PLACE WITH ONLY SLIGHT MODERATION OCCURRING SATURDAY AHEAD OF
AMPLIFYING TROUGH. RESULT WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH
DAYTIME/NIGHT TIME MAX/MINS DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVERS INFLUENCE
ON MIXING. I TRENDED DAYTIME TEMPS BACK A LITTLE AND BUMPED
OVERNIGHT TEMPS UP (MAINLY TONIGHT) CONSIDERING ONGOING FORECAST
FOR PERSISTENT/THICK CLOUD COVER. OVERALL TEMPERATURES TRENDS
HAVE CHANGED LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH OF THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE EXTENDING FROM THE FAR
SOUTHWEST U.S. TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. THE UPPER LOW
CENTER THAT HAS BEEN TRAVELING SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST IS KICKED
EAST AS AN OPEN WAVE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
AREA DIVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A STRONG JET PUSHING
SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS A NUMBER OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS LIFTING OUT OF THE MAIN
TROUGH TRANSITION THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
THAT EVENTUALLY MOVES EAST OF THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY.

EXPECT THE PRIMARY SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE TO BE PUSHED UP ALONG THE
ROCKIES AND EXTENDING EAST ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WITH THE OCCASIONAL PUSH NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN AVERAGE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A
RESULT WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S AND 30S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS. HAVE ALSO BROAD BRUSHED AREAS OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS STRETCHING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EACH PERIOD FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT OF THE FRONTAL ZONE BEING
IN THE VICINITY WITH THE SHORT WAVE IMPULSES ALSO STREAMING ACROSS
THE AREA. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AT THIS
TIME. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN THE TIMING AND SPECIFIC SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OVER SPECIFIC LOCATIONS SINCE EVEN SMALL SMALL DIFFERENCES
IS THE POSITION OF FEATURES COULD RESULT IN LARGE DIFFERENCES IS
THE PROBABILITIES OF RECEIVING PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1022 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

AT KGLD...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL DECK WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN.
TONIGHT...LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD OUT OF EASTERN COLORADO WITH
CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. LIFR POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING
WITH 1/2SM VISIBILITIES IN LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW.

AT KMCK...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SNOW WILL LIKELY STAY
SOUTH OF KMCK...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND MAY APPROACH
MVFR CEILINGS AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...024

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
337 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-271045-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
337 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

LIGHT SNOW CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER EASTERN COLORADO INTO
NORTHWEST KANSAS BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH SNOW LIKELY LATE TONIGHT
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 40. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 40 THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. 1 INCH OR LESS IS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING
WINDS FRIDAY MORNING TO PRODUCE LOW WIND CHILL VALUES FROM 5
BELOW TO 15 BELOW ZERO.

SNOW CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT EAST OF A LINE FROM MCCOOK NEBRASKA TO LEOTI KANSAS WHERE UP
TO 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.