Special Weather Statement, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
435 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

AT 1PM MDT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOWED PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE TRI
STATE AREA WEST OF HIGHWAY 83...WITH LOWER BROKEN TO OVERCAST
CONDITIONS EAST OF THE HIGHWAY AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WAS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ON RADAR
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG A TROUGH/DRY LINE IN EASTERN COLORADO.
RAP AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
BEGINNING TO TAKE A NEGATIVE TILT INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHER
HIGH PLAINS.

THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING CONVECTIVE INITIATION AT
20Z...ALTHOUGH CELLS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP.  NMM AND ARW
GUIDANCE IS ALSO A BIT BEHIND REALITY WITH HAVING CONVECTION DEVELOP
BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z.  0-1 KM AND 0-3 KM HELICITY WAS NOT IMPRESSIVE
WITH WIDESPREAD VALUES UNDER 50 FOR THE FORECAST AREA...SO NOT
EXPECTING TORNADOES TO BE A WIDESPREAD THREAT THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DEVELOPING STORMS. HOWEVER...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR APPROACHING 35-40 KTS
ACROSS THE AREA IN COMBINATION WITH 1500 J/KG OF CAPE SUGGESTS A
LARGE HAIL THREAT. WITH DCAPE VALUES MOSTLY BETWEEN 400 AND 500
J/KG...ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS FROM STORMS IS POSSIBLE...BUT
EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON TO PRIMARILY HAVE A LARGE
HAIL THREAT. STORMS WILL GET GOING BY MID AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH
THE EVENING.

CLOUD COVER WILL BE PRESENT LATE THIS EVENING DUE TO A STEADY STREAM
OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO FORM ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING DRIER AIR
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.  LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT TOMORROW WITH THE SHORTWAVE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH DRY
WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER TROUGH WITH A CUT OFF LOW
FEATURE MOVES INTO THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND BRINGS CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE ARE SOME LOCATIONS WITH CAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 700 J/KG AND 0-6 BULK SHEAR APPROACHING 35 KTS...HOWEVER
FORECAST AREAS IN MODELS DO NOT NECESSARILY LINE UP.
THEREFORE...NOT EXPECTING A WIDE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL
EXIST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF JUST SOUTH
OF FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
THE CWA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND STALL SOUTH AND WEST OF
OUR CWA. SOUTHERLY THEN EASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING VERY GOOD MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO OUR CWA AS THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVES EAST WITH
OVERRUNNING NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE WHERE ELEVATED
FRONT/FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL BE IN PLACE. BETTER PRECIP
SIGNAL IS CURRENTLY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE CWA...WHERE I CONTINUED TREND
OF RAISING POPS. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE LIGHT PRECIP
PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR BEGINS
TO ADVECT SOUTH AND SUBSIDENCE BUILDS SOUTHWEST MONDAY.

IF CURRENT SIGNAL/TREND CONTINUE I COULD SEE RAISING POPS TO
CATEGORICAL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...AND TO LIKELY CATEGORY
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WHILE 40KM GUIDANCE SHOWS QPF AS FAR
EAST AS NORTON/GRAHAM THROUGH THESE PERIODS...PATTERN TENDS TO FAVOR
AREAS CLOSER TO FRONTAL ZONE/HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO...SO I
KEPT LOWERS POPS NORTHEAST/EAST. IN POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WITH
THICK STRATUS/LIKELY PRECIPITATION HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER AND I
CONTINUED THE TREND OF LOWER HIGHS ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS
MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 40S IN SOME AREAS.

MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...THERE IS A SECONDARY H3 JET ROTATING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEHIND THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH...AND THIS COULD
BRING ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT SHOWERS....OTHERWISE LARGE SCALE
RIDGING WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND BACK TO THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
NEXT FRIDAY (80S) AS LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS. WHILE THERE ISN'T A
LOT OF AGREEMENT AT THIS RANGE THE PATTERN DOES SUPPORT POSSIBLE
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
IN COLORADO MOVING EAST INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA...SO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE KEPT IN PLACE FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 430 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

KGLD...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THROUGH 01Z OR 02Z WINDS GENERALLY
FROM THE NORTHEAST 5-10KTS BUT WITH VARIOUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM THUNDERSTORMS ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. 02Z-14Z WINDS
FROM THE WEST NEAR 10KTS WITH ONLY A FEW CLOUDS EXPECTED. 14Z-18Z
WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 12KTS WITH SKC CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. 18Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD WINDS CONTINUE TO
VEER TO THE NORTH (18Z) THEN NORTHEAST (22Z) AT 11KTS OR LESS. MAY
SEE A FEW CU DEVELOP AROUND 18Z BUT MORE LIKELY LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 05Z WINDS
VARIABLE WINDS 6KTS OR LESS. 06Z-15Z MODELS HINT AT SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THAT MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A
SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK. FOR NOW HAVE A SCATTERED DECK. WINDS
BECOMING NORTHWEST 5-10KTS. 16Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD
AM EXPECTING NORTHWEST WINDS TO VEER TO THE NORTHEAST THEN EAST-
NORTHEAST UNDER 10KTS. SHOULD SEE A BROKEN DECK OF CLOUDS AROUND
4K FT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1053 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-251700-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1053 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY
83. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FROM LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THESE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
511 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0511 PM     HAIL             16 SE BIRD CITY         39.59N 101.32W
04/24/2015  E0.25 INCH       RAWLINS            KS   PUBLIC

&&

BWARREN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
530 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

KSZ028-041-042-250000-
GREELEY KS-WICHITA KS-LOGAN KS-
530 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN GREELEY...SOUTHWESTERN
LOGAN AND WICHITA COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM MDT/700 PM CDT/...

AT 530 PM MDT /630 PM CDT/...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 12 MILES WEST OF
SCOTT STATE LAKE TO 6 MILES EAST OF TRIBUNE. THESE STORMS WERE NEARLY
STATIONARY.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LEOTI...RUSSELL SPRINGS...SELKIRK AND MARIENTHAL.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM MDT/1100 PM CDT/ FOR
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3858 10177 3870 10158 3870 10149 3877 10148
      3895 10119 3870 10104 3870 10113 3852 10113
      3827 10158 3826 10164
TIME...MOT...LOC 2330Z 211DEG 4KT 3868 10115 3846 10164

LUNDQUIST

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
659 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

KSZ015-016-250030-
GRAHAM KS-SHERIDAN KS-
659 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN GRAHAM AND
SOUTHEASTERN SHERIDAN COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

AT 659 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10
MILES NORTHWEST OF VODA...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MORLAND...PENOKEE...SAINT PETER AND STUDLEY.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR NORTHWESTERN
KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3913 9998 3913 10022 3937 10028 3937 9993
TIME...MOT...LOC 2359Z 178DEG 11KT 3919 10010

007

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