Severe Thunderstorm Warning 78, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
327 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

NOT A LOT OF TIME TO WRITE DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. MODELS
HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE CONVECTION. RUC WOULD LOOK TO HAVE THE
RIGHT IDEA WITH THE MAIN CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE AREA. TWO DIFFERENT AREAS OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE...ONE RUNNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE AREA AND ANOTHER AREA APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST CORNER. WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING. SO STORMS LOOK TO GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE NIGHT.

INDICATIONS ARE THAT WILL DEFINITELY HAVE STRATUS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA BEHIND THE RAIN WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. HAVE THIS LAST
THROUGH MID MORNING. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY...SURFACE BOUNDARY
SETS UP JUST EAST OF THE KANSAS AND COLORADO BORDER. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL LIFT LOOKS TO BE STRONGER THAN TODAY SO AGAIN LOOK TO HAVE
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF STORMS...SOME SEVERE...IN THE AFTERNOON.

DUE TO LACK OF TIME DID NOT CHANGE THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TOMORROW TOO MUCH. IT DOES LOOK WARMER TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

AGAIN NOT A LOT OF TIME DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. HIGH CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO RATHER STRONG
UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. SAME TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. RIDGING AND
DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE IN STORE FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FLOW BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE THROUGH. SO
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A LITTLE BETTER DURING THIS
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WERE NOT CHANGED FROM WHAT THE CRH_INIT
PRODUCED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

FOR KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS THRU 00Z THURSDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS
10-20KTS. BY 00Z THURSDAY...VCTS WITH BKN040-050 GIVING WAY TO 3SM
IN TSRA THRU 03Z...THEN MIX OF MVFR/VFR SKIES AS CONDITIONS SLOWLY
IMPROVE THRU REST OF FORECAST PERIOD. SOME FOG AFT 09Z POSSIBLE.
SOUTH WINDS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY SW AROUND 10KTS BY 09Z.

FOR KMCK...MIX OF VFR/MVFR SKY CONDITIONS WITH BKN040-050 WITH 3SM
IN TSRA BR THRU 05Z THURSDAY...THEN 3-6SM BR AND BKN015-030 THRU
MID MORNING THURSDAY BEFORE TRENDING BACK TO VFR. SE WINDS
10-20KTS BACKING TO THE ESE 10KTS BY 08Z...THEN SOUTH 10KTS BY
15Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...JN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1057 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-281200-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1057 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA BEGINNING
DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE EVENING. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN A FEW TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE. HAIL TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER OR GREATER AND THE
GREATEST THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM QUINTER TO COLBY TO GOODLAND TO FLAGLER. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING ALL MODES OF SEVERE
WEATHER INCLUDING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AFTER 3 PM MDT (4 PM
CDT).

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
218 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0217 PM     HAIL             5 W MONUMENT            39.10N 101.09W
05/27/2015  E1.00 INCH       LOGAN              KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

TLYNCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
230 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

KSZ001-NEZ079-272100-
CHEYENNE KS-DUNDY NE-
230 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

AT 229 PM MDT /329 PM CDT/...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BENKELMAN...MOVING NORTH AT 15
MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BENKELMAN AND PARKS.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM MDT/1000 PM CDT/ FOR
NORTHWESTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 3986 10160 3992 10183 4023 10176 4014 10142
TIME...MOT...LOC 2029Z 198DEG 11KT 3996 10169

MENTZER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
251 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0251 PM     HAIL             9 SE BENKELMAN          39.96N 101.41W
05/27/2015  E0.75 INCH       CHEYENNE           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CLT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
253 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

KSZ002-NEZ079-080-272145-
RAWLINS KS-DUNDY NE-HITCHCOCK NE-
253 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN RAWLINS...
SOUTHWESTERN HITCHCOCK AND SOUTHEASTERN DUNDY COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM
MDT/445 PM CDT/...

AT 253 PM MDT /353 PM CDT/...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES EAST OF BENKELMAN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
STRATTON AND MAX.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM MDT/1000 PM CDT/ FOR
NORTHWESTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4020 10107 3992 10126 3997 10141 4000 10141
      4000 10151 4031 10136
TIME...MOT...LOC 2053Z 203DEG 19KT 4003 10135

LOCKHART

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
254 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

KSZ002-NEZ079-080-272145-
RAWLINS KS-DUNDY NE-HITCHCOCK NE-
254 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN RAWLINS...
SOUTHWESTERN HITCHCOCK AND SOUTHEASTERN DUNDY COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM
MDT/445 PM CDT/...

AT 253 PM MDT /353 PM CDT/...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES EAST OF BENKELMAN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
STRATTON AND MAX.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM MDT/1000 PM CDT/ FOR
NORTHWESTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4020 10107 3992 10126 3997 10141 4000 10141
      4000 10151 4031 10136
TIME...MOT...LOC 2053Z 203DEG 19KT 4003 10135

LOCKHART

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
257 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0253 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     10 WNW THE MONUMENT ROC 38.84N 100.93W
05/27/2015                   LOGAN              KS   STORM CHASER

            TRUNK FUNNEL HALF WAY CONDENSED, JUST ROPED OUT AT TIME
            OF REPORT.

&&

TLYNCH