Severe Thunderstorm Warning 70, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
244 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.  A SURFACE LOW WILL EXIST OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO DURING
THIS TIME.

SHORTWAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FA
THIS EVENING AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.  FORCING WILL BE NEAR THE
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST FA THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN LIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. SUBSIDENCE WILL MOVE INTO THE FA
LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE.
PLAN TO GO WITH HIGH POPS FOR TONIGHT NEAR THE TROUGH WITH LOWER
POPS AFTER 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER RH
INCREASES AFTER 06Z MONDAY SO WILL ADD SOME PATCHY FOG THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY. POPS WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIFT NEAR
THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. THE
STORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST INTO THE FA AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE FA.

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH STORMS INITIATING NEAR THE TROUGH IN THE WATCH AREA AND STORM
MOTION 10 TO 15KTS. RECENT HEAVY RAINS AND ADDITIONAL RAIN EXPECTED
SUPPORT THE WATCH.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.
MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 65 IN EASTERN COLORADO TO
75 IN THE EASTERN FA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MONDAY NIGHT...TROUGH SHOULD BE TRANSITIONING EASTWARD AND WITH
SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN BEGIN TROUGH AXIS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

PROGRESSIVE ZONAL/WESTERLY PATTERN ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE
CENTRAL US...WITH SW FLOW DEVELOPING BY THIS WEEKEND. TREND WILL BE
ACTIVE AND A WARMER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY.
LONGWAVE TROUGH REDEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN US WITH 60S/70S
RETURNING FRIDAY-SUNDAY. WHILE GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON
LARGER SCALE PATTERN TRENDS THERE IS A LOT OF VARIANCE IN EVOLUTION
OF SMALLER SCALE FEATURES (ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEKEND). DESPITE
THIS...PRECIP SIGNAL REMAINS HIGH WITH ALL GUIDANCE AND HIGHER
CHANCE/LIKELY POPS CONTINUE TO BE WARRANTED.

WEAKER SHORTWAVES WILL HELP AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS...WITH SURFACE TROUGH ACTING AS FOCUS FOR
INITIATION. STRONGER LIFT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THIS
WEEKEND WITH COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW 50S TO NEAR 60F TD VALUES AND MODERATE TO HIGHER
INSTABILITY EACH AFTERNOON PERIOD. WEDNESDAY IN PARTICULAR LOOKS TO
HAVE A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WITH 2000-3000 J/KG OF CAPE AND
GOOD BULK SHEER ADVERTISED BY GFS/NAM ALONG/EAST OF TROUGH AXIS
ALONG CO/KS BORDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY TRANSITIONING TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AT KMCK AND KGLD BASED ON SATELLITE AND
METARS. A SHORTWAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS THIS
EVENING AT BOTH SITES WITH DECREASING STORMS BY 06Z AND THEN
STRATUS MOVING IN BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY MONDAY MORNING.|

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ090-091.

NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...FS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
254 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-252100-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
254 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS
IN AN AREA GENERALLY WEST OF KANSAS HIGHWAY 25.

IN ADDITION...SLOW MOVING STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
KIT CARSON AND YUMA COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY
25 IN NORTHWEST KANSAS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THESE DAYS
WILL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OR FLOODING REPORTS ARE APPRECIATED.

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