Severe Thunderstorm Warning 66, NWS Goodland, KS

813 
WWUS53 KGLD 160628
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
128 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

KSC137-160700-
/O.CON.KGLD.SV.W.0066.000000T0000Z-150516T0700Z/
NORTON KS-
128 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN NORTON COUNTY...

AT 128 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF PRAIRIE VIEW...OR 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NORTON...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ALMENA...EDMOND...CALVERT AND DENSMORE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3957 9985 3980 9984 3994 9963 3957 9963
TIME...MOT...LOC 0628Z 223DEG 26KT 3977 9970 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

DLF

790 
WWUS53 KGLD 160643
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
143 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

KSC137-160652-
/O.CAN.KGLD.SV.W.0066.000000T0000Z-150516T0700Z/
NORTON KS-
143 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN NORTON COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
        
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS EXITED NORTON COUNTY AND 
MOVED INTO PHILLIPS COUNTY. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3957 9985 3980 9984 3994 9963 3957 9963
TIME...MOT...LOC 0638Z 234DEG 15KT 3985 9961 

$$

DLF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1150 PM MDT FRI MAY 15 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 836 PM MDT FRI MAY 15 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE MENTION OF AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS EVENING. RADAR TRENDS SHOW AN AREA
OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAINSHOWERS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO WALLACE AND
LOGAN COUNTIES WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE NORTHEAST FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM MDT FRI MAY 15 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL CENTER AROUND LOCATION...INTENSITY AND
TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS AS LARGE TROUGH TO
THE WEST KEEPS CWA IN ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY.

19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED SFC LOW/TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOWEST PRESSURES NEAR KLHX. DRYLINE IS
BEGINNING TO SHOW ITSELF TO THE SOUTHWEST OF CWA WITH AREA OF CU
NEAR KTRB LIKELY INDICATING LEADING EDGE. WEAK TROUGH/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY NOTED FROM ROUGHLY ATWOOD TO HYS WITH AREA OF FAIRLY FLAT
CU FORMING ALONG IT.

CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND RESULTING MOVEMENT IS INITIAL CONCERN
AS BOTH DRYLINE/TROUGH WILL BE POSSIBLE AREAS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...WITH BULK OF CAM MODELS SUGGESTING EASTERN COLORADO
IN VICINITY OF TROUGH BEING MOST LIKELY AREA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
PROFILES AND INSTABILITY SUPPORT ORGANIZED/SUPERCELLULAR STORMS
AND THINK THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING. AT THIS TIME LCL/LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES ARE MAXIMIZED TO
THE NORTH OF THE CWA WITH ONLY YUMA AND DUNDY COUNTY APPROACHING A
MORE FAVORABLE TORNADO ENVIRONMENT. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TO
AROUND 50 KTS AND ANTICIPATE PRECIPITATION AREA TO SHIFT TO THE
EAST AS WELL.

ON SATURDAY...LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH DESTABILIZES THINGS FAIRLY QUICKLY.
WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME RECOVERY NEEDED DUE TO OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS...THINK LARGE SCALE FORCING AND LARGE SCALE
DESTABILIZATION DUE TO TROUGH WILL PROMOTE AN EARLIER INITIATION
OF CONVECTION THAN RECENT DAYS. WITH FLOW ALOFT INCREASING...SHEAR
AND STORM RELATIVE FLOW VECTORS SUPPORT A PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA
MORE FAVORABLE FOR LONGER DURATION SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLY
TORNADIC STORMS. LOCATION AND STORM MODE WILL GREATLY RELY ON HOW
EARLY STORMS DEVELOP AND WHERE DRYLINE BECOMES BETTER DEFINED IN
THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT FRI MAY 15 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH THAT
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE TRI STATE AREA.  MOST OF
THE SEVERE ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT SOME SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 EAST OF A SURFACE
DRYLINE. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BASE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF AT THIS
TIME AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN COLORADO AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.  LIMITED CAPE AND MARGINAL 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
IN THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE SHOULD NOT ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER...BUT SOME GENERAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE.
ONCE THE SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES...MONDAY WILL BE COOLER AND DRY
WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE TRI STATE AREA.

ALTHOUGH MODEL FORECASTS DIFFER ON LOCATIONS A BIT...TIMING OF A
VERY NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO BE IN AGREEMENT FOR A
TUESDAY ARRIVAL. A STRONGER 50-60 KT JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH AROUND THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL TAP INTO GOOD MOISTURE AND
ADVECT SATURATED AIR INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
A MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS WITH SATURATED PROFILES WITH STRONG SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY ADVECTION TO ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY WITH
PWAT VALUES BETWEEN THE 75TH AND APPROACHING THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR
CLIMATOLOGY WITH VALUES BETWEEN 0.75 TO OVER ONE INCH. WITH SOME
SMALL AMOUNTS OF CAPE IN THE PROFILE BETWEEN 100 AND 200 J/KG...THE
POSSIBILITY OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.

THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER LINGERING REMNANTS OF LIFT WILL BRING MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  MOST LOCATIONS WILL
EXPERIENCE LITTLE CAPE WITH GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING BETWEEN
400 AND 800 J/KG...BUT NOT EXACTLY SURE THIS ENERGY WILL BE REALIZED
IF A BROKEN OR OVERCAST LAYER WILL KEEP A STEADY CAP IN PLACE.  THE
ONLY LOCATION WITH ABOVE 1000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR ABOVE 60
KTS IS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...BUT THE ECMWF DOES NOT HAVE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CAPE.  THEREFORE...SEVERE THREAT IS UNLIKELY BUT
POSSIBLE FOR SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY.

SOLUTIONS DIVERGE FOR THURSDAY WITH SOME MODELS INDICATING A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING...BUT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO BE
POSSIBLE TOO.  STUCK WITH BLEND OF MODELS TO PLACE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

BECAUSE OF THE MOIST PATTERN WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES NEXT
WEEK...EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOUT NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM MDT FRI MAY 15 2015

INTRODUCED MORNING IFR STRATUS AT BOTH TAF SITES FOR A FEW HOURS
AROUND DAYBREAK GIVEN PRESENCE OF CONTINUED MOIST ATMOSPHERE.
SURFACE LOW OVER COLORADO WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY RESULTING
IN STRONG S-SE SURFACE WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KTS DURING THE DAY. A
ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
EASTERN COLORADO IN THE AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO THE KGLD AREA IN THE
20-22Z TIME FRAME AND IN KMCK IN THE 23-01Z TIME FRAME.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...DLF
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DLF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1038 AM MDT FRI MAY 15 2015

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-161645-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1038 AM MDT FRI MAY 15 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND DEVELOP EASTWARD ALONG AND
NORTH OF A GOODLAND TO HILL CITY LINE. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE
LARGE HAIL TO AROUND GOLFBALL SIZE AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A
TORNADO IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY NEAR THE KANSAS AND NEBRASKA BORDER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE TRI
STATE AREA AGAIN ON SATURDAY. LARGE HAIL IN EXCESS OF 2
INCHES...DAMAGING WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND A FEW TORNADOES
ARE POSSIBLE. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT ALONG AND EAST OF A HAIGLER NEBRASKA
TO LEOTI LINE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

JRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
936 PM MDT FRI MAY 15 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0921 PM     TSTM WND GST     GOODLAND                39.35N 101.71W
05/15/2015  M60.00 MPH       SHERMAN            KS   ASOS

&&

RHUSTED

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
936 PM MDT FRI MAY 15 2015

KSZ001>003-NEZ079-080-160345-
DECATUR KS-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS KS-DUNDY NE-HITCHCOCK NE-
936 PM MDT FRI MAY 15 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN RAWLINS...CENTRAL
DECATUR...NORTHEASTERN CHEYENNE...SOUTHERN HITCHCOCK AND SOUTHEASTERN
DUNDY COUNTIES UNTIL 945 PM MDT/1045 PM CDT/...

AT 935 PM MDT /1035 PM CDT/...THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WAS LOCATED ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF ST. FRANCIS TO 6 MILES
EAST OF MCDONALD TO 5 MILES NORTH OF GEM...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 80
MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OBERLIN...BENKELMAN...NORCATUR...HERNDON...LUDELL...KANONA...PARKS
AND TRAER.

LAT...LON 4002 10079 4001 10076 4000 10076 4000 10071
      3990 10018 3982 10018 3970 10032 3986 10108
      3997 10189 4011 10176
TIME...MOT...LOC 0335Z 245DEG 70KT 3982 10187 3975 10125 3950 10089

LUNDQUIST

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
946 PM MDT FRI MAY 15 2015

KSZ001>003-NEZ079>081-160400-
DECATUR KS-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS KS-DUNDY NE-HITCHCOCK NE-
RED WILLOW NE-
946 PM MDT FRI MAY 15 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN RAWLINS...
NORTHWESTERN DECATUR...NORTHEASTERN CHEYENNE...SOUTHERN HITCHCOCK...
SOUTHEASTERN DUNDY AND SOUTHWESTERN RED WILLOW COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 PM
MDT/1100 PM CDT/...

AT 945 PM MDT /1045 PM CDT/...THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WAS LOCATED ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES SOUTH OF BENKELMAN TO 5 MILES NORTHWEST
OF ATWOOD TO 14 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LUDELL...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT
60 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE OUTFLOW.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OBERLIN...ATWOOD...HERNDON...LUDELL...MAX...BLAKEMAN...CEDAR BLUFFS
AND TRAER.

LAT...LON 4012 10142 4007 10069 3984 10031 3960 10081
      3984 10118 3992 10157
TIME...MOT...LOC 0345Z 227DEG 54KT 3992 10156 3986 10113 3968 10080

LUNDQUIST

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1207 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

KSZ015-016-029-160530-
GOVE KS-GRAHAM KS-SHERIDAN KS-
1207 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN GRAHAM...EASTERN GOVE AND
SOUTHEASTERN SHERIDAN COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 AM CDT...

AT 1206 AM CDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE REPORTED ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES NORTH OF MORLAND TO 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF
PENDENNIS...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
QUINTER...PARK...MORLAND...PENOKEE...SAINT PETER AND STUDLEY.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 IN KANSAS BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 100 AND
113.

LAT...LON 3913 9997 3913 10015 3870 10015 3870 10038
      3907 10039 3950 10015 3952 9989
TIME...MOT...LOC 0506Z 223DEG 38KT 3948 10009 3870 10028

LUNDQUIST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1128 PM MDT FRI MAY 15 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0920 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GOODLAND                39.35N 101.71W
05/15/2015                   SHERMAN            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            CARPORT BLOWN OVER A BUILDING AND ONTO MAIN STREET.

&&

RHUSTED

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1228 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

KSZ015-016-029-160545-
GOVE KS-GRAHAM KS-SHERIDAN KS-
1228 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN GRAHAM...NORTHEASTERN
GOVE AND SOUTHEASTERN SHERIDAN COUNTIES UNTIL 1245 AM CDT...

AT 1228 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES SOUTH OF LENORA TO
5 MILES NORTH OF COLLYER...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
QUINTER...MORLAND...PENOKEE...SAINT PETER AND STUDLEY.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 IN KANSAS BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 109 AND
113.

LAT...LON 3913 9989 3913 10015 3901 10015 3899 10023
      3927 10023 3950 10013 3953 9986
TIME...MOT...LOC 0528Z 214DEG 30KT 3949 10004 3912 10013

LUNDQUIST