Severe Thunderstorm Warning 378, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
217 PM MDT THU SEP 10 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM MDT THU SEP 10 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT...WHILE AT THE
SURFACE A COLD FRONT DROPPING OUT OF NEBRASKA AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION ARE POTENTIAL FOCUSING
MECHANISMS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TOWERING CU DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT JUST NORTH OF MCCOOK AS WELL AS AREAS TO THE SOUTH
WHERE ONE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE LOCATED. SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WILL BE BEST IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE
AREA...FROM MCCOOK TO HILL CITY...THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THAT AREA
IS NEAR THE SPC ENHANCED RISK AREA WHERE SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY CONGEAL INTO AN MCS BY MID EVENING AND QUICKLY MOVE INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS. ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN THROUGH
THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY BUT WITH COOLER
AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS AND LACK OF AN UPPER SHORTWAVE FOR
FORCING APPEARS IT WILL BE DRY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT THU SEP 10 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...H5 RIDGE TRANSITIONS FROM WESTERN US TO
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND PLAINS RESULTING IN WARMING TREND AND DRY
CONDITIONS. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING THERE COULD BE A
PERIOD OF FOG DEVELOPING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETREATS TO
THE NORTHEAST AND BL MOISTURE POOLS ALONG SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IN
EASTERN COLORADO. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD APPROACH SEASONAL VALUES
IN THE 80S ON SATURDAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL/UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES RETURNING SUNDAY AND MONDAY. EARLIER GUIDANCE SUPPORTED
HIGHS BY MONDAY APPROACHING THE MID 90S...THOUGH RECENT TRENDS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON DEGREE OF WAA EAST OF ROCKIES.

TUESDAY-THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS PACIFIC NW
INTO SW US...WITH SHIFT TO SW FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
PLAINS. PEAK HEIGHT FALLS DO NOT ARRIVE UNTIL WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WHICH SHOULD KEEP FAVORABLE STORM TRACK WEST OF OUR CWA. THIS
ALSO RESULTS IN AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY (TUESDAY) OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...BEFORE SEASONAL VALUES IN THE 80S RETURN WED/THU.
EVEN AS STORM TRACK SHIFTS EAST TO BE CLOSER TO OUR CWA...GUIDANCE
IS STILL SHOWING EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MAINLY ROTATING AROUND OUR CWA
WITH MINIMAL FORCING. THERE CAN STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
ALONG PREFRONTAL TROUGH TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS
PRIMARILY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHERE THERE IS BETTER MODEL
CONSENSUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1113 AM MDT THU SEP 10 2015

SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH AT THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER
WITH BEST COVERAGE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF KGLD AND
KMCK NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT A STORM WILL DIRECTLY IMPACT
EITHER TERMINAL TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. THEREFORE WILL HAVE VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHEAST BY
THE AFTERNOON AND GUSTY AT TIMES BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...024

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1035 AM MDT THU SEP 10 2015

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-111645-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1035 AM MDT THU SEP 10 2015 /1135 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2015/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTON AND
GRAHAM COUNTIES OF NORTHWEST KANSAS.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF
A MCCOOK NEBRASKA TO TRIBUNE KANSAS LINE.

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. HAIL UP
TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE ENHANCED RISK
AREA AND HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.
AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN EITHER AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED

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