Severe Thunderstorm Warning 345, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
252 PM MDT SUN AUG 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT SUN AUG 16 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WITH AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. PLUMES OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ORIGINATING IN THE
PACIFIC ARE ROTATING AROUND THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
LARGE SCALE RIDGE INTO THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. DIFFLUENT FLOW IS
CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH TROUGH DIGGING
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A FEW WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE JUST TO
THE WEST/NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA. AT THE SURFACE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO NORTHCENTRAL COLORADO
OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST PART OF OUR CWA. PREFRONTAL TROUGH AXIS IS IN
PLACE FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO OVER GOODLAND AND NORTON KANSAS.

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD INITIATE
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH WITH
COVERAGE INCREASING THIS EVENING AS A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION. RECENT TRENDS IN ARW/NMM HAVE BEEN
TO SHIFT MOST ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER TO THE SOUTH ROUGHLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. CURRENTLY THE ORIENTATION OF FLOW
ALOFT AND OTHER GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS
ORIGINATING FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST OF THIS. EITHER WAY...DEEP
MOIST AIR MASS AND DECENT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF FRONT WILL SUPPORT
ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF CWA TRANSITIONING EASTWARD. STRONGEST CAPE
AXIS IF FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE INDICATED...THOUGH THERE
IS ENOUGH ELEVATED CAPE TO AT LEAST CONSIDER POTENTIAL FOR
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. DCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG COINCIDING DRY ADIABATIC
PROFILES BELOW 700MB COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE DOWNDRAFT
POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH AS MIXING RATIOS INCREASE
BELOW 700MB THIS EVENING THIS THREAT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH.

REGARDING FLASH FLOOD WATCH...ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT VALUES 1.2-1.6
WILL ONLY INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT APPROACHING 1.7-1.8 WHICH IS
WELL WITHIN 99TH PERCENTILE OR 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL.
WITH VERY SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND POSSIBILITY FOR
TRAINING/BACKBUILDING I AM COMFORTABLE WITH FLASH FLOOD WATCH. IF
ARW/NMM SOLUTION PANS OUT THEN WE MAY NEED TO CONSIDER ADDING
SOUTHERN PART OF FORECAST AREA TO WATCH.

MONDAY...WHILE FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD OCCUR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
MONDAY...GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A LOT OF SPREAD ON TIMING. THIS LOWERS
CONFIDENCE/TIMING OF ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ARW/NMM SHOW
A MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER DEVELOPING ALONG FRONT MONDAY
MORNING...THOUGH OTHER GUIDANCE IS SHOWING PREDOMINANTLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED ACTIVITY LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA. DEEP MOIST LAYER
REMAINS IN PLACE...SO WITH POTENTIAL FOR OVERRUNNING ALONG BAROCLINIC
ZONE...IT IS POSSIBLE FOR A MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTER IF WE CONTINUE TO
SEE WEAK HEIGHT FALL...WHICH COULD ALSO RESULT CONTINUING THREAT FOR
FLASH FLOODING.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT
ON FRONTAL POSITION/TIMING AS BETTER INSTABILITY WILL TEND TO BE
AHEAD OF FRONT. AS WITH TODAY...THREATS WOULD BE LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING
WINDS ALONG/SOUTH OF FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT SUN AUG 16 2015

FOR THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PACKAGE...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY...BRINGING AN END TO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND A TEMPORARY PARDON FROM THE WARMTH AND
HUMIDITY. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT RETURNS BEHIND TUESDAY'S SYSTEM. WITH
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED
TO FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...BRINING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE MOST IMPACTFUL WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD IS
ANTICIPATED MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. ACTIVE WEATHER
IS FORECAST AS A LARGE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH KICKS OUT OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS. STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION MONDAY EVENING DEPENDING ON THE FRONT
LOCATION AND ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS. ANY POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT MAY BE HIGHER MONDAY EVENING AS INITIAL DEVELOPMENT IN
COLORADO SHOULD BE MOVING IN. THE PRIMARY THREATS FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AS MENTIONED IN THE DAY 2
STORM PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOK...SURFACE VORTICITY/HELICITY
MAXIMIZED IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT MAY PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY
FOR A TORNADO TO OCCUR. CONFIDENCE IN THIS ISN'T AS HIGH AS HIGHER
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD POOL
DEVELOPMENT...HIGHLIGHTING A HIGHER THREAT OF MCS DEVELOPMENT WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT. IN TERMS OF FLASH FLOODING...A
THREAT WILL STILL EXIST ESPECIALLY IF HEAVY RAINS ARE RECEIVED
TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALL AS THE FRONT DOES FORCE SOME
MOISTURE SOUTH SO WE NO LONGER EXPECT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
NEARING THE 99TH PERCENTILE. STORM MOVEMENT REMAINS QUITE SLOW IN
TERMS OF STEERING WINDS ALOFT SO COLD POOL FORMATION/MOVEMENT SHOULD
BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER. THEREFORE...A FLASH FLOOD THREAT MAY PERSIST
AND ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY EVENING IN
LATER FORECAST PACKAGES.

ON TUESDAY...THE FRONT SHOULD FINALLY SLIDE ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE
REGION...RESTRICTING HIGHEST INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND
PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WHEN
THIS COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH TIME FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS WOULD MEAN SEVERE WEATHER
IS POSSIBLE BUT UNLIKELY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL PERTURBATIONS
MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE MAIN FORCING AND WITH SOME
INSTABILITY REMAINING IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...THERE SHOULD
BE ADDITIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY REMAINS IN DOUBT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM MDT SUN AUG 16 2015

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK
TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. BEST
COVERAGE WILL BE DURING THE EVENING AS A SLOW MOVING CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN
COVERAGE BEFORE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE
SOUTHEAST ALONG A COLD FRONT MONDAY. SOME GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
IFR CIGS AT KMCK 10-14Z...HOWEVER THIS APPEARS TO BE MORE LIKELY
TIED TO FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH MAY NOT BE UNTIL AFTER THE CURRENT
TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KSZ001>003-013-014.

CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COZ090-091.

NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NEZ079>081.

&&

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...DR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
307 PM MDT SUN AUG 16 2015

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-172115-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
307 PM MDT SUN AUG 16 2015 /407 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL UP TO ONE INCH AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. HEAVY RAIN WITH SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA AS STORMS DEVELOP NEAR A COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE AREA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND CAN BE
EXPECTED. A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING IS LIKELY WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TRI-STATE REGION
TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WOULD BE THE MAIN
THREATS. THUNDERSTORMS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
337 PM MDT SUN AUG 16 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     TSTM WND GST     8 S MCDONALD            39.67N 101.35W
08/16/2015  E60 MPH          RAWLINS            KS   PUBLIC

&&

KOCHASIC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
413 PM MDT SUN AUG 16 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0413 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 W HERNDON             39.91N 100.80W
08/16/2015  M2.00 INCH       RAWLINS            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KOCHASIC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
432 PM MDT SUN AUG 16 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0426 PM     HAIL             9 N BLAKEMAN            39.95N 101.12W
08/16/2015  E1.00 INCH       RAWLINS            KS   PUBLIC

            ALSO EXPERIENCED STRONG WINDS ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 60 MPH.

&&

KOCHASIC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
434 PM MDT SUN AUG 16 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0426 PM     HAIL             8 N BLAKEMAN            39.94N 101.12W
08/16/2015  E1.00 INCH       RAWLINS            KS   PUBLIC

            ALSO EXPERIENCED STRONG WINDS ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 60 MPH.

&&

KOCHASIC

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
521 PM MDT SUN AUG 16 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     HAIL             6 E GOODLAND            39.35N 101.60W
08/16/2015  E0.75 INCH       SHERMAN            KS   PUBLIC

            MOSTLY PEA SIZED.

&&

KOCHASIC