Severe Thunderstorm Warning 330, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
451 PM MDT SAT AUG 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM MDT SAT AUG 8 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS 595 DM RIDGE
ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMING INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ACROSS OUR CWA. SEVERAL WEAK
RIPPLES/SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WITHIN THE H5/H7 SW FLOW ARE UPSTREAM OF
THE REGION WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. STATIONARY/WARM
FRONT IS CURRENTLY JUST OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF OUR CWA.

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING ACROSS SE CWA AND
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WILL ACT AS FOCUS FOR INITIATION NEAR OUR CWA
AS HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT MOVES SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70. STRONGEST PRECIP SIGNAL IS ALONG STATIONARY FRONT IN
THE SOUTH...ESPECIALLY BY ARW/HRRR. RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE VALUES
ALREADY AROUND 4000 J/KG IN THE SOUTHEAST...WITH EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 40KT. WHILE THERE IS SOME LOW LEVEL
VEERING...OVERALL SEVERE INDICES FAVOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL WITH ON A SMALL THREAT FOR TORNADOS WITHIN PROXIMITY TO MAIN
TROUGH AXIS. VERY MOIST AIR MASS...THE POSSIBILITY FOR BACKBUILDING
ALONG FRONTAL ZONE...AND STORM MOTIONS GENERALLY LESS THAN 20KT WILL
TEND TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. HI RES
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM INTO ONE
OR SEVERAL SMALL MCS CLUSTERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. EARLIER GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING THIS SPREADING AS FAR
NORTH AS THE I-70 CORRIDOR.

WITH LINGERING WAA ACROSS THE SE CWA...ALONG WITH SEVERAL MORE
WEAK SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THE REGION...SE PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA COULD CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. TREND WILL BE FOR DECREASING
INSTABILITY...SO SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO JUST THE
EVENING HOURS. VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALSO TEND
TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR FOG/STRATUS TO REDEVELOP BY SUNRISE.

SUNDAY...WITH WEAK FORCING AND LINGERING FRONT IN OUR SE...THERE
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDDAY. NAM
SHOWS INCREASING FORCING BY LATE MORNING EARLY AFTERNOON AS A
STRONGER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. OTHER GUIDANCE IS NOT
QUITE AS FAR SOUTH...PRIMARILY FAVORS THE SOUTHER PARTS OF OUR CWA
FOR BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY/SHEER IN THE AFTERNOON TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A FEW MORE
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN HI TEMP FORECAST AS (LIKE
TODAY) TEMPS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON STRATUS CLEARING AND TIMING
OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE AIR MASS ADVERTISED OVER THE CWA WITH
AVERAGE MIXING WOULD SUPPORT SEASONAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER
90S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT SAT AUG 8 2015

FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. SATELLITE
IS SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED AND MOSTLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC
INTO NORTH AMERICA. THIS FLOW BECOMES MORE OF A SPLIT WITH THE
TROUGHS OVER THE WESTERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. OLD
CUTOFF LOW IS NOW BEING EJECTED INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE COUNTRY. MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PULLED UP INTO THE
REGION WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WITHIN THIS FLOW. AIR MASS
REMAINS MOIST THROUGH A SIGNIFICANT DEPTH.

AT JET LEVEL...THE GFS FOLLOWED BY THE NAM/CANADIAN WERE INITIALLY
DOING THE BEST HERE. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS WERE CLOSE WITH THE
GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET DOING SLIGHTLY BETTER. THE SREF AND NAM WERE
DOING THE BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. MODELS WERE
HAVING A LITTLE TROUBLE ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD...THEY TENDED
TO BE TOO COOL. OVERALL WOULD HAVE TO GIVE A SLIGHT EDGE TO THE NAM
AND SREF.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LOOKS LIKE SOME WEAK BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA. MODELS ARE A LITTLE FASTER IN TAKING THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE
THROUGH ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOT VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THAT. MODELS
WANT TO BRING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ALSO NOT A LOT OF AGREEMENT. RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT AFFECTS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THE
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE MAINLY STRATUS WITH NOT AS GOOD OF A CHANCE
OF FOG.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH THE
UPPER JET BEING PUSHED FURTHER NORTH AWAY FROM THE AREA. AREA IS IN
POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE REGIME. RIDGING ALOFT LOOKS A LITTLE STRONGER
AND FURTHER WEST DURING THE DAY THAN WAS SHOWN YESTERDAY SO WILL
PUSH THE POPS FURTHER WEST. WILL HAVE SOME CLOUD COVER TO START THE
DAY WITH A COOLER AIR MASS AND UPSLOPE WINDS PRESENT THROUGH THE DAY
SO WILL DEFINITELY BE COOLER.

700 MB RIDGE MOVES A LITTLE TO THE EAST DURING THE NIGHT WITH
INCREASING LIFT COMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SO POPS SHOULD STAY
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE
THROUGH WITH STORMS NOT MOVING VERY FAST. THAT COMBINED WITH HIGH
PWS WILL SET THE STAGE MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

TUESDAY...ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND TROUGH CONTINUE TO
MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE DAY. MOIST AIR MASS REMAIN IN PLACE
WITH INCREASING LIFT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THERE COULD BE SOME
PRECIPITATION AT THE BEGINNING AND THEN IT SHOULD GRADUALLY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. SO HAVE THE HIGHER POPS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

EASTERLY WINDS...CLOUD COVER AND DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION SHOULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING VERY MUCH.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE OUTPUT
IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
PATTERN. ESSENTIALLY MODELS BUILD THE RIDGE...NOW CENTERED TO OUR
SOUTH...FURTHER TO THE WEST AND NORTH. THE DIFFERENCES INCREASE A
LITTLE TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD BUT NOT AS BAD AS YESTERDAY. THE
CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL BE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LEAVING A
WEAKER NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA.

IN THIS PATTERN WOULD ANTICIPATE THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO BE ABLE
TO ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE WITH WEAK/SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ROTATING
AROUND IT. WPC PROGS SHOW A PERSISTENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG OR
OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA UNTIL THE LAST DAY WHEN A DRY
LINE/SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP IN THE SAME PLACE. WITH VERY SUBTLE
FEATURES...I CANNOT RULE OUT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALMOST EVERY
PERIOD.

SO ANY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS TO DRY CONDITIONS DO NOT
SEEM UNREASONABLE DEPENDING ON HOW THE DETAILS WORK OUT. SO ONCE
AGAIN DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO WHAT THE CRH_INIT GAVE ME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 440 PM MDT SAT AUG 8 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING FOR KGLD AND KMCK. A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A THUNDERSTORM TO KGLD THIS EVENING WITH A LESSER CHANCE AT KMCK.
OVERNIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES TO THE POINT THAT
STRATUS AND FOG AND RESULTING MVFR CONDTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT
KGLD. CIGS AT KMCK SHOULD NOT BE AS LOW AS KGLD BUT WILL STILL BE
MVFR. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...FS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
247 PM MDT SAT AUG 8 2015

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-092100-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
247 PM MDT SAT AUG 8 2015 /347 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2015/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS...WITH COVERAGE INCREASING
OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS AS ACTIVITY SPREADS NORTHEAST. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70. THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STORMS THAT BECOME SEVERE
ARE DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70 MPH...LARGE HAIL IN EXCESS OF 2
INCHES...AND HEAVY RAIN THAT MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THESE PERIODS WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THE MAIN THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
534 PM MDT SAT AUG 8 2015

KSZ027-028-090000-
WALLACE KS-LOGAN KS-
534 PM MDT SAT AUG 8 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN WALLACE AND WEST
CENTRAL LOGAN COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM MDT/700 PM CDT/...

AT 534 PM MDT /634 PM CDT/...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF WALLACE...OR 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF
SHARON SPRINGS...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SHARON SPRINGS AND WALLACE.

LAT...LON 3890 10177 3905 10173 3905 10141 3882 10140
TIME...MOT...LOC 2334Z 278DEG 26KT 3895 10165

HUSTED

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
649 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2015

KSZ042-090015-
WICHITA KS-
649 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN WICHITA COUNTY UNTIL
715 PM CDT...

AT 649 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 15
MILES NORTHWEST OF DEERFIELD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LYDIA.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3838 10126 3836 10113 3826 10113 3827 10133
TIME...MOT...LOC 2349Z 209DEG 21KT 3818 10125

HUSTED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
553 PM MDT SAT AUG 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     TSTM WND GST     STRATTON NE             40.15N 101.23W
08/07/2015  E100 MPH         HITCHCOCK          NE   NWS STORM SURVEY

            WIDESPREAD AND MAJOR TREE DAMAGE THROUGHOUT TOWN
            CONSISTENT WITH AN INTENSE DOWNBURST. 12-18 INCH DIAMETER
            TREES SNAPPED AND UPROOTED. POWER OUTAGES IN TOWN AND
            SURROUNDING AREAS DUE TO UTILITY POLE DAMAGE. ONE GARAGE
            DESTROYED..ONE UNANCHORED MOBILE HOME DESTROYED...ONE
            CAMPER OVERTURNED AND DAMAGED RESULTING IN ONE FATALITY.

&&

DLF