Severe Thunderstorm Warning 241, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
120 PM MDT THU JUL 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM MDT THU JUL 23 2015

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG SURFACE TROUGH LINE
RUNNING FROM OGALLALA NEBRASKA TO LIMON COLORADO. BETTER COVERAGE
OF STORMS WILL BE NORTH OF I-70 WITH MEAN WINDS CARRYING ANY
STORMS TO THE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. STRONGER STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN A BIT SLOW TO CLIMB TO AFTERNOON HIGHS
GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF MORNING STRATUS...BUT KEPT MAX TEMPS
TODAY IN THE MIDDLE 90S SEEING THE RAPID RECOVERY LAST HOUR OR
TWO. FRIDAY WILL BE ANOTHER HOT DAY IN THE 90S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 105 PM MDT THU JUL 23 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING FRIDAY EVENING ALONG THE
COLD FRONT DRAPED ROUGHLY ALONG I70 AND SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH. VERY
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY ALONG WITH 30-35KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SUFFICIENT FOR
A FEW SEVERE STORMS AND PERHAPS A SUPERCELL. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING SO COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED. BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL BE FAR TO THE SOUTH LEAVING THE LOCAL
AREA IN A POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE REGIME. ONCE AGAIN SYNOPTIC FORCING
WEAK BUT THERE IS A HINT OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH TOPPING THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS RIDGE AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP. SHEAR SOMEWHAT LESS THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS SO SEVERE THREAT WILL BE RATHER LIMITED BUT STILL
SOME STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE. OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO
RETURN NORTH ON SUNDAY AS WARM FRONT AND MAY BE A FACTOR FOR
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CHANGE VERY
LITTLE WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLE WEAK TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER
RIDGE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING RESULTING IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. WHILE BEST FORCING
WITH THAT SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH...LOCAL AREA WILL BE ON
THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND SOME INCREASE IN
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH. END RESULT WILL BE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM MDT THU JUL 23 2015

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 20Z ACROSS SW NEBRASKA
AND NE COLORADO AND MOVE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. BETTER TSRA
CHANCES WILL BE 22-02Z AT KGLD AND 00-03Z AT KMCK. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z AND THEN
TRANSITION TO SW AT KGLD AND TO NW AT KMCK AROUND 12Z AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...DLF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1035 AM MDT THU JUL 23 2015

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-240945-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1035 AM MDT THU JUL 23 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 3 PM MDT...MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70...AND MOVE EAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN SLOW STORM
MOVEMENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH
NEXT WEDNESDAY. STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AFTER MID-AFTERNOON.