Severe Thunderstorm Warning 229, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
254 PM MDT SUN JUL 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT SUN JUL 19 2015

COMPLICATED SURFACE PATTERN IN PLACE. EITHER OR SOME COMBINATION
OF A LEFT OVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...SURFACE TROUGH RETREATING FRONT
IS NOW NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS STARTING TO MOVE THROUGH FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. A WEAK
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT.

THE RAP IS CATCHING THE SURFACE WIND FIELD THE BEST RIGHT NOW. IT
AND THE HRRR WHICH DID WELL FROM LAST NIGHT...IS CATCHING THE WIND
FIELD AND THE CURRENT AND EXPECTED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT VERY
WELL RIGHT NOW. STORMS WILL CONTINUE INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THROUGH TONIGHT AS STORMS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND EXPECT SOME OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME
SEVERE. HOWEVER THE BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND
POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING. AIR MASS REMAINS VERY MOIST THROUGH A
DEEP DEPTH. WHERE THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL MATCHES UP WITH
WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL/SOME FLASH FLOODING OCCURRED LAST NIGHT/EARLY
THIS MORNING IS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THEREFORE A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH TONIGHT.

VERY LIGHT LINGERING RAINFALL MAY BE AROUND THROUGH MID MORNING.
AFTER THAT IT SHOULD STAY QUIET UNTIL MID AFTERNOON. WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE
THROUGH. AIR MASS DOES NOT APPEAR AS MOIST. ALSO SURFACE BOUNDARY
LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF AREA. MODELS ARE NOT VERY EXCITED ABOUT THE
AFTERNOON RAINFALL CHANCES. HOWEVER CONSIDERING THE RESIDUAL
MOISTURE IN PLACE AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN A WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...AM KEEPING SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT SUN JUL 19 2015

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...NEEDED TO MAKE SOME CHANGES FOR
THIS RUN AS MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO
TWO FEATURES. FIRST...GUIDANCE IS HONING IN ON A MORE SOUTHERN
SOLUTION WITH REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO A FURTHER SOUTH PUSH FROM THE
FRONT THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. SECOND...GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE THAT DEVELOPS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

BEGINNING WITH MONDAY NIGHT...ANTICIPATE RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER
DUE TO THE FRONT AND THUS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINING FURTHER
SOUTH. SOME MODELS CONTINUE INDICATING ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING AS
A LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS OVER THE FRONT. A NARROW TONGUE OF
INSTABILITY RETURNS WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTER FLOW EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING SO SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP. ALL
PARAMETERS ARE DELAYED BY 6-12 HOURS FROM YESTERDAY SO ACTIVITY MAY
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY. THEREFORE...LOWERED POPS FOR
MONDAY NIGHT.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WET PERIOD IS ANTICIPATED.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE EXACT AXIS WHERE THE RAIN WILL OCCUR. IN
ADDITION...THERE MAY BE A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN LITTLE TO NO
RAINFALL AND ANOTHER ROUND OF BENEFICIAL SOAKING RAINS. THE BEST
FORCING SHOULD ARRIVE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...SLOWLY TRANSITIONING
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY WEDNEDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...THE BEST
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHOULD OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
CHANCES DIMINISHING WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...REACHING A MAXIMUM NEAR 1.60 INCHES BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES WITH
SOME THUNDERSTORMS.

BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES SLIDES WEST AND STRENGTHENS/BUILDS NORTH
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO AN END IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR THE MOST PART AS WELL AS A RETURN TO HOT TEMPERATURES.
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND...SOME MEMBERS OF THE
FORECAST GUIDANCE DO INDICATE CHANCES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...THERE IS NOT A CONSISTENT SIGNAL AMONGST THE GUIDANCE AND
NO TIME PERIODS IN PARTICULAR TO HONE IN ON. IN FACT...THINK THAT
MOST LIKELY THE REGION REMAINS DRY DUE TO CLOSENESS/STRENGTH OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM MDT SUN JUL 19 2015

SIMILAR SETUP TO LAST NIGHTS ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME
IT LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORMS WILL START A LITTLE EARLIER. THE
STORMS LOOK A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN THEY DID LAST NIGHT. KGLD
STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE TO BE AFFECTED BY THE
THUNDERSTORMS. SO CHOSE TO PUT VCTS AT KGLD AT 21Z WITH A
PREVAILING THUNDERSTORM FORECAST FROM 00Z TO 04Z. AT THIS TIME FOR
KGLD KEPT CONDITIONS AT VFR FOR THE ENTIRE TIME BUT IF A STRONG
STORM MOVES ACROSS THEN MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT CHOSE
TO KEEP ANY THUNDERSTORM MENTION OUT OF THE TAF.

DO NOT FEEL AS CONFIDENT ABOUT KMCK GETTING THUNDERSTORMS BUT IT
WILL BE CLOSE. CHOSE TO PUT IN VCTS THERE FROM 01Z TO 05Z. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE TIME. ALSO KEPT ANY
MENTION THUNDERSTORMS OUT FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KSZ013>016-027>029-
     041-042.

CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COZ091-092.

NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...BULLER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
221 PM MDT SUN JUL 19 2015

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-201200-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
221 PM MDT SUN JUL 19 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY
RAINFALL LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. AS RESULT...A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LOCATIONS ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A FLAGLER TO COLBY TO HILL CITY LINE.

ALSO AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS. FLASH FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS THAT HAVE RECEIVED MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
244 PM MDT SUN JUL 19 2015

COZ091-092-192115-
KIT CARSON COUNTY CO-CHEYENNE COUNTY CO-
244 PM MDT SUN JUL 19 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CHEYENNE AND KIT
CARSON COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM MDT...

AT 244 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES NORTH OF VONA TO
NEAR BOYERO...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BURLINGTON...STRATTON...FLAGLER...SEIBERT...BETHUNE...VONA...WILD
HORSE AND AROYA.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 70 IN COLORADO BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 390 AND 437.
 HIGHWAY 385 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 186 AND 195.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM MDT FOR
EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

LAT...LON 3956 10315 3957 10235 3933 10221 3861 10317
TIME...MOT...LOC 2044Z 223DEG 30KT 3936 10277 3891 10326

LUNDQUIST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
414 PM MDT SUN JUL 19 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0413 PM     TSTM WND DMG     11 S WILD HORSE         38.67N 102.99W
07/19/2015                   CHEYENNE           CO   PUBLIC

            NUMEROUS 3-4 INCH LIVE BRANCHES DOWN. NEAR ZERO
            VISIBILITY.

&&

KOCHASIC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
433 PM MDT SUN JUL 19 2015

COZ091-092-192300-
KIT CARSON COUNTY CO-CHEYENNE COUNTY CO-
433 PM MDT SUN JUL 19 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL CHEYENNE AND
CENTRAL KIT CARSON COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM MDT...

AT 433 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTH OF STRATTON
TO 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BETHUNE TO 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF KIT
CARSON...AND MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
STRATTON AND BETHUNE.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 IN COLORADO BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 415 AND
433.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM MDT FOR
EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

LAT...LON 3949 10239 3914 10231 3885 10251 3885 10282
      3912 10269 3944 10270
TIME...MOT...LOC 2233Z 267DEG 12KT 3939 10257 3914 10256 3892 10269

LUNDQUIST