Alert archive / Nebraska / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2015

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 199, NWS Goodland, KS

July 10, 2015Red Willow County, Nebraska

NWS Goodland, KS issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 10, 2015, 11:27 PM CDT for Red Willow County, Nebraska. It was in force for 17 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Jul 10, 2015, 11:27 PM CDT (04:27 UTC)
Expired: Jul 10, 2015, 11:44 PM CDT
In force: 17 min
Issued by: NWS Goodland, KS
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.5 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

County Red Willow County, NE

The radar

The Goodland radar (KGLD), 138 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:28 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

N. Platte/Lee Bi, NE (KLBF), launched 00:00Z, 4.5 hours before the alert went out and 107 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1407 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -10 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1705 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 37 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 127 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 251 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.5
Supercell composite: 14.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Goodland, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 10, 6:33 PM CDT, 4 hours 54 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 10, 6:33 PM CDT, 4 hours 54 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
533 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015

LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS
WHICH WAS SLOWLY RETROGRADING.  WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
FLOW AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS EAST OF THE TRI-STATE
AREA.  TO THE SOUTHWEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A SMALL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE TRI-STATE AREA.  AT THE SURFACE A WARM
FRONT WAS STILL OVER THE AREA...EXTENDING FROM ROUGHLY THE KS/NE
BORDER SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS.  SOUTHWEST OF THE WARM FRONT A
DRY LINE WAS NEARING THE KS/CO BORDER.

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON BROAD LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
ANTICIPATE THE BEST STORM COVERAGE TO BE AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT
WHERE LIFT/MOISTURE WILL BE BEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.  MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED BETWEEN THE DRY LINE
AND THE WARM FRONT...WITH NO STORMS EXPECTED WEST OF THE DRY LINE.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 40KTS AND MIXED LAYER CAPE WILL BE
1000J/KG OR SO.  THIS MAY LEAD TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE AND WIND GUSTS OF 70MPH.  LOOKING AT THE
LATEST MESOANALYSIS FROM SPC'S WEBSITE...NOTICED THE 700-500MB LAPSE
RATES ARE AROUND 6C/KM WHICH WILL HAMPER ANY STORMS FROM DEVELOPING.
THIS MAY BE DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER LASTING SO LONG EARLIER TODAY.

EARLY THIS EVENING STORM COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT SHOULD
PEAK DUE TO LIFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH INCREASING
AS THE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.  STORM COVERAGE SHOULD THEN
DECLINE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING.  AS HINTED AT ABOVE...STORM
DEVELOPMENT/COVERAGE WILL REALLY DEPEND ON THE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
OVER THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.  IF THE LAPSE RATES DO NOT STEEPEN
THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO STORM COVERAGE.

OVERNIGHT THERE MAYBE SOME FOG AHEAD OF THE NEARLY STATIONARY WARM
FRONT IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS SHOULD BE THE
SAME AIR MASS AS THIS MORNING WHICH HAD PATCHY FOG WITH VISIBILITIES
DROPPING TO A HALF MILE OR SO.

SATURDAY THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA
DURING THE MORNING.  ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF A COUPLE HOURS
AFTER SUNRISE.  DURING THE LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
MEANWHILE THE DRY LINE AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA.  SOUNDINGS AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS
SUGGEST ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON
EITHER ALONG OR EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH WOULD BE ROUGHLY
EAST OF HIGHWAY 25.  AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND FILLS.  ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA OR DISSIPATED BEFORE EVENING.

ASIDE FROM THE ISOLATED STORMS...THE MUCH WARMER AIR MASS WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO AROUND 100 IN EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 60F HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE AROUND 100
DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON. DID NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR THE
HEAT DUE TO HIGHER DEW POINTS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE
HEAT OF THE DAY. HOWEVER IF DEW POINTS RISE INTO THE MID 60S OR
TEMPERATURES WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES...HEAT INDEXES WILL BE CLOSER
TO 105.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015

A RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY.  A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY.

THERE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE ADVERTISED SATURDAY EVENING BUT
MOISTURE IS LACKING SO WILL ADJUST THE FORECAST TO NIL POPS. THE
FORECAST FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS WELL DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE AND A LACK OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE.

MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM 65 TO 70 WITH SOME LOWER 60S IN
EASTERN COLORADO.  MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM 95 TO AROUND
100.

IN THE EXTENDED...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN
FLATTENS AS NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES RIDE OVER THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. A PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH NEAR EASTERN COLORADO
AND NORTHWEST KANSAS WILL FOCUS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS NEARLY EVERY DAY EXCEPT MONDAY.  POPS FOR THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE NIL ON MONDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AND
CHANCE POPS FOR THE REMAINING TIME.

MIN TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S WITH SOME LOWER 60S IN EASTERN COLORADO.  MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S WITH SOME UPPER 90S POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 533 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE MAJORITY OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
NEAR-TERM AVIATION CONCERN IS THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KMCK.
MAIN STORM IN THE AREA REMAINS AROUND 30 MILES NORTH OF KMCK.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE BUT AT THIS MOMENT...DOES NOT
APPEAR AS THOUGH STORMS WILL AFFECT TAF SITE. THERE MAY BE SOME
FOG TOMORROW MORNING AT KMCK AS MOISTURE POOLS ALONG A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WORST CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH. LIGHT
WINDS CAN BE ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A LEE
TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO A WIND SHIFT TOMORROW MORNING AT KGLD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...RRH

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 10, 4:09 PM CDT, 7 hours 18 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
309 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-112115-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
309 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE IN NORTHWEST KANSAS AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WITH HAIL LARGER THAN ONE INCH...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON EAST
OF HIGHWAY 83. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 10, 9:38 PM CDT, 1 hour 49 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
838 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0837 PM     HAIL             7 NNW DANBURY           40.13N 100.45W
07/10/2015  E0.75 INCH       RED WILLOW         NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL IS GETTING LARGER AT TIME OF CALL.

&&

RHUSTED

Local storm report, Jul 10, 9:43 PM CDT, 1 hour 44 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
843 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 PM     HAIL             7 NNW DANBURY           40.13N 100.46W
07/10/2015  E1.00 INCH       RED WILLOW         NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL NOW UP TO QUARTER SIZE...POSSIBLY HALF DOLLAR. VERY
            HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

&&

RHUSTED

Local storm report, Jul 10, 9:53 PM CDT, 1 hour 34 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
853 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CULBERTSON              40.23N 100.84W
07/10/2015                   HITCHCOCK          NE   PUBLIC

            LOCATION...FAIR GROUNDS, BARN HAD SIDING AND EXTREME ROOF
            DAMAGE, POWER POLE DOWN

&&

CTIPTON

Special weather statement, Jul 10, 9:56 PM CDT, 1 hour 31 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
956 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015

NEZ081-110315-
RED WILLOW NE-
956 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN RED WILLOW COUNTY
UNTIL 1015 PM CDT...

AT 956 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4
MILES SOUTH OF WILLOW VIEW CAMPGROUND...OR 6 MILES NORTH OF MCCOOK...
MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MCCOOK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4027 10048 4019 10073 4019 10074 4035 10076
      4035 10042
TIME...MOT...LOC 0256Z 250DEG 16KT 4030 10063

JRM

Special weather statement, Jul 10, 10:04 PM CDT, 1 hour 23 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1004 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015

NEZ081-110315-
RED WILLOW NE-
1004 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN RED WILLOW COUNTY
UNTIL 1015 PM CDT...

AT 1004 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR CAMBRIDGE...OR 22 MILES EAST OF MCCOOK...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BARTLEY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4035 10020 4029 10020 4028 10019 4021 10020
      4022 10030 4030 10030 4031 10031 4035 10030
TIME...MOT...LOC 0304Z 267DEG 25KT 4033 10022

JRM

Special weather statement, Jul 10, 10:38 PM CDT, 49 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1038 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015

NEZ081-110400-
RED WILLOW NE-
1038 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN RED WILLOW COUNTY
UNTIL 1100 PM CDT...

AT 1038 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER INDIANOLA...OR 10 MILES EAST OF MCCOOK...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MCCOOK...INDIANOLA AND BARTLEY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 4035 10022 4009 10020 4013 10062 4035 10059
TIME...MOT...LOC 0338Z 281DEG 30KT 4022 10042

JRM

The office that day

Everything else NWS Goodland, KS issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 10, 9:41 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GLD	Decatur	49 min
Jul 10, 10:29 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GLD	Decatur	16 min
Jul 11, 12:14 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	GLD	Norton	31 min
Jul 11, 3:15 PM CDT	Heat Advisory	GLD	Gove, Graham, Norton, Sheridan	29 hr
Jul 11, 4:34 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GLD	Cheyenne	56 min
Jul 11, 4:47 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GLD	Cheyenne	41 min
Jul 11, 5:02 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	GLD	Rawlins	13 min
Jul 11, 5:15 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GLD	Rawlins	60 min
Jul 11, 5:26 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	GLD	Cheyenne	34 min
Jul 11, 5:27 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	GLD	Cheyenne	33 min
Jul 11, 5:35 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GLD	Cheyenne	40 min
Jul 11, 5:51 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	GLD	Rawlins	3 hr
Jul 11, 6:09 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	GLD	Rawlins	51 min
Jul 11, 6:10 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	GLD	Rawlins	20 min
Jul 11, 6:12 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	GLD	Rawlins	33 min
Jul 11, 6:32 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GLD	Decatur, Rawlins, Thomas	43 min
Jul 11, 3:49 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	GLD	Yuma	26 min
Jul 11, 4:01 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GLD	Yuma	44 min
Jul 10, 7:22 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	GLD	Hitchcock	8 min
Jul 10, 7:42 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	GLD	Hitchcock	48 min
Jul 10, 8:06 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	GLD	Hitchcock	9 min
Jul 10, 8:25 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	GLD	Hitchcock	20 min
Jul 10, 8:30 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GLD	Hitchcock, Red Willow	45 min
Jul 10, 8:46 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GLD	Red Willow	29 min
Jul 10, 9:10 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GLD	Red Willow	50 min
Jul 10, 9:16 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	GLD	Hitchcock	14 min
Jul 10, 9:27 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	GLD	Hitchcock	3 hr
Jul 10, 9:56 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	GLD	Red Willow	19 min
Jul 10, 10:04 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	GLD	Red Willow	11 min
Jul 10, 10:38 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	GLD	Red Willow	22 min
Jul 10, 10:44 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GLD	Red Willow	46 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Nebraska, 2015 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.