Severe Thunderstorm Warning 177, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
900 PM MDT THU JUN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM MDT THU JUN 25 2015

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #357 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM
MDT/500 AM CDT...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. DO
EXPECT SEVERE WX TO DEVELOP AND CONTINUE WITH FOCUS BEING AREA OF
STORMS CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO NORTHERN ZONES. HAVE ATTESTED
WORDING IN FORECAST TO ACCT FOR WATCH...NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 PM MDT THU JUN 25 2015

RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
TRI STATE AREA DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WHICH WAS CAUSING
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FOR SOME AREAS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83.  VIS/IR/WV IMAGERY ALL INDICATED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA...HOWEVER SOME AREAS OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WERE EVIDENT AHEAD OF THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA AS
AN UPPER AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSH INTO THE REGION.
BASED ON NAM/ARW/NMM MODELS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
IN NEAR WY/CO BORDER AND COMBINE TO FORM AN MCS FEATURE THAT MOVES
INTO THE TRI STATE AREA SOMETIME THIS EVENING BETWEEN 6 AND 9 PM
MDT. CAPE VALUES DIFFER BETWEEN MODELS...BUT IT SEEMS TO BE A
CONSENSUS THAT WIDESPREAD VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000
J/KG AHEAD OF THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX...BUT CAPE VALUES WILL
DECLINE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT. IN COMBINATION WITH DCAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 1000 AND 1600 J/KG BASED ON NAM MODEL
SOUNDINGS...EXPECTING SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS TO BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS TONIGHT IN DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS.

STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND EXITING THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND 3 AM MDT.  AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO
THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS OVERNIGHT...AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.  SOME
LINGERING AREAS OF STRONGER MID AND LOWER LEVEL JET DEPICTED IN
FORECAST MODELS MAY HELP KEEP SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS BEHIND THE MAIN COMPLEX OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...SO KEPT SOME POPS IN THE FORECAST. AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER MOVES ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA
FRIDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LOW AND SKIES WILL BEGIN TO
CLEAR. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE MUCH LOWER THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WHICH IS BETWEEN 5 AND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT THU JUN 25 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...WITH FRONT WELL SOUTH AND WEST OF CWA AND
SUBSIDENCE BUILDING INTO THE CWA CURRENTLY EXPECTED DRY CONDITIONS
FRIDAY NIGHT. RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING OVER OUR CWA. WAA ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING
LEE TROUGH WILL ALLOW SEASONAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S TO
RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY
RIDGE IN THE WEST. EXTENDED GUIDANCE SHOWS LARGER SPREAD IN TIMING
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THROUGH NW FLOW DESPITE GENERAL AGREEMENT ON
LARGER SCALE PATTERN...WHICH LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES.
CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS 20/30 POPS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHEN GFS/ECMWF ARE BOTH SHOWING QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS ROTATING THROUGH THE PLAINS. DUE TO THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY
IN GUIDANCE...I OPTED TO KEEP MENTION IN PLACE...WITH ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS. TENDENCY WILL BE FOR HIGHS TO REMAIN SEASONALLY
HOT...THOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME INDICATION OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHEN FLOW IS
SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE WEST AND THERE COULD BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER LEE
TROUGHING/WAA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 544 PM MDT THU JUN 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TAF SITES THRU 11Z FRIDAY WITH MAINLY
BKN050-090 AND 6SM IN -SHRA AT TIMES. VCTS 02Z-05Z. 11Z-19Z WILL
HAVE VFR CONDITIONS DROP TO A IFR/MVFR MIX WITH CEILINGS
BKN008-015. AFTER 19Z VFR WITH SCT015-090. WINDS ENE 5-15KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...JN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
902 PM MDT THU JUN 25 2015

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-270315-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
902 PM MDT THU JUN 25 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STORMS ARE
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

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