Severe Thunderstorm Warning 148, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
542 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 542 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015

UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THE ISSUANCE OF TORNADO WATCH 260 AND THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH. CONCERN IS GROWING OVER EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINS
WITH SLOW MOVING...INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS. SUPERCELLS SHOULD MORPH
INTO A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AND CONTINUE ITS SLOW MOVEMENT
TO THE NORTHEAST. EXTREMELY ANOMALOUS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
INDICATE A HIGH THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN SO A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS
NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A PLUME OF INCREASING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AFTER MIDNIGHT THIS PLUME
GENERALLY LIFTS NORTHEAST BUT SOME LINGERING MOISTURE REMAINS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. ON SATURDAY THIS AXIS OF MOISTURE
MOVES EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA AT THE END OF THE DAY ONLY TO BE
REPLACED BY ANOTHER MOVING INTO FAR EASTERN COLORADO WHICH WILL
BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

VERY IMPRESSIVE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXIST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH 1.5-1.8 INCHES GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE. THESE VALUES ARE EXTREMELY HIGH FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR AND ARE PRETTY RARE DURING OUR MONSOON SEASON AT THE
END OF JULY. ONCE THE STORMS REACH THIS AIRMASS AM EXPECTING VERY
HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND AN INCREASED THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING.
SEVERE WEATHER ALSO LIKELY.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE MID 50S WEST TO MID 60S EAST. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S WEST TO LOW 90S
EAST/NORTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE A SIMILAR WEATHER
PATTERN WILL UNFOLD.  AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
DURING THE EVENING.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE STRONGEST LIFT WILL BE CENTERED OVER
THE 850MB TROUGH AND THE SURFACE FRONT.  WANTED TO HAVE HIGHER
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...BUT DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE DECIDED TO KEEP RAINFALL
CHANCES A BIT CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW.  A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE MID TO LATE
EVENING...EXITING THE AREA AROUND SUNRISE.  BEHIND THE FRONT THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MORE STABLE AND DRIER.  THEREFORE WILL HAVE
CHANCES FOR RAIN DECLINE OVERNIGHT.  LOOKING AT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE
EVENING NORTH OF THE KS/NE BORDER AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 OR
BASICALLY AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT.  HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
DUE TO PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS NEAR THE HIGHEST RECORDED FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR ACCORDING TO SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY FROM SURROUNDING
UPPER AIR SITES.

SUNDAY THE NEXT ROUND OF STORMS WILL FIRE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON
AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.  THIS
TROUGH APPEARS TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY AND THE CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS ARE 20+MB...WHICH WILL LIMIT STORM COVERAGE.  REGARDING
TEMPERATURES...WARMER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA.  MODELS DISAGREE HOW FAR
NORTH THE FRONT WILL MOVE...BUT THE CONSENSUS HAS IT OVER
GREELEY/WICHITA COUNTIES.

LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING A SECOND STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST.  LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL BE MORE FOCUSED AND CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS WILL BE MUCH LOWER...UNDER 10MB OR SO.  THIS
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING...FILLING AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.  STORM MOTION WILL BE AROUND 20
MPH AND PRECIPITABLE WATER IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO BE VERY
HIGH...RIVALING THE HIGHEST OBSERVED AMOUNTS ACCORDING TO
CLIMATOLOGY OF OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM SURROUNDING SITES.  WITH THIS
IN MIND PLACED A MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK.  BEST
CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.

OVERNIGHT SUNDAY THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL FILL BRINGING RAINFALL
TO AN END.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THE WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MOVES NORTHEAST
AND BECOMES ELONGATED OVER THE PLAINS AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN.
WEDNESDAY THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL AS THE TROUGH MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA AND THE RIDGE AXIS MOVE THROUGH.  AFTER WEDNESDAY
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CONUS...BRINGING
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WITH IT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL EXCEPT FOR
FRIDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 542 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015

STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...BRINGING POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS TO BOTH TAF SITES.
NEAR-TERM THREAT NEAR KGLD WITH THREAT GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING
NORTHEAST TO KMCK. HEAVY RAIN...LOW CEILINGS AND STRONG WINDS
ANTICIPATED WITH THESE SLOW MOVING STORMS. STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE
REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME FOG BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. MOST LIKELY LOCATION TO OBSERVE
FOG IS KMCK.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM MDT /3 AM CDT/ SATURDAY FOR KSZ001-
     002-013.

CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ090>092.

NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM MDT /3 AM CDT/ SATURDAY FOR NEZ079-
     080.

&&

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...RRH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
549 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-070000-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
549 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THIS
EVENING. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE
EXPECTED.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY AND PRODUCE EXTREME RAINFALL RATES.
FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
ALONG AND WEST OF A CHEYENNE WELLS COLORADO TO BREWSTER KANSAS TO
CULBERTSON NEBRASKA LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE TRI-STATE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PRIMARILY
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE
POSSIBLE INCLUDING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODING.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83...WITH A SECOND FAVORABLE AREA BEING SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM FLAGLER COLORADO TO GOVE KANSAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NEEDED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
725 PM MDT FRI JUN 05 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0712 PM     FLASH FLOOD      BURLINGTON              39.31N 102.27W
06/05/2015                   KIT CARSON         CO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER OVER ROADS IN BURLINGTON.

&&

RHUSTED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
733 PM MDT FRI JUN 05 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     HAIL             GOODLAND                39.35N 101.71W
06/05/2015  E1.00 INCH       SHERMAN            KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

            NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL

&&

HILL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
737 PM MDT FRI JUN 05 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     HAIL             3 S GOODLAND            39.31N 101.71W
06/05/2015  E1.75 INCH       SHERMAN            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
744 PM MDT FRI JUN 05 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0642 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WSW KANORADO          39.33N 102.06W
06/05/2015                   KIT CARSON         CO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            5 LARGE TREES LAID OVER DUE TO POSSIBLE TORNADO. TIME AND
            LOCATION ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

HILL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
755 PM MDT FRI JUN 05 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     HAIL             YUMA                    40.12N 102.72W
06/05/2015  M1.00 INCH       YUMA               CO   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

RHUSTED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
757 PM MDT FRI JUN 05 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 PM     HEAVY RAIN       YUMA                    40.12N 102.72W
06/05/2015  M0.75 INCH       YUMA               CO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            RAIN FELL IN 15-20 MINUTES ACCORDING TO EMERGENCY
            MANAGER. WATER UP TO THE CURBS OF SOME STREETS.

&&

RHUSTED