Severe Thunderstorm Warning 110, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
240 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH POSITIONED ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION...WHICH WAS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS.  AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS.  VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATED A POPULATED CUMULUS FIELD STARTING AT HIGHWAY 83
AND INCREASED IN DENSITY TO THE WEST.  RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS
BEGINNING TO FORM OVER YUMA COUNTY.

HIRES NMM...ARW...AND RAP ANALYSIS HAVE STORMS DEVELOPING CLOSER TO
21Z...AND BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARDS 00Z TONIGHT. LAPSE RATES
ALOFT TRANSLATE TO BETWEEN 400 AND 600 J/KG IN THE PROFILE...WITH
CAPE VALUES DECREASING AFTER SUNSET.  WITH 0-6 SHEAR VALUES ON THE
FRINGE OF 40 KTS...SOME SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH A MAJORITY OF STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SUB SEVERE.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF INTO THE LATE
EVENING HOURS TONIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS.  KEPT LOW
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MOS OUTPUT DUE TO BLANKETING
OVERCAST CLOUD COVER. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST...WHICH WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY SATURDAY WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS AFTER MID MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

FORECAST PROBLEMS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ARE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION AND HOW MUCH IT WARMS UP SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SATELLITE
SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED AND COMPLICATED FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.

MODELS INITIALIZED REASONABLE WELL ON THE JET AND MID LEVELS WITH
SO SERIOUS PROBLEMS. MODELS DO NOT START OUT STRONG ENOUGH WITH
THE SURFACE RIDGING BEHIND THE CURRENT FRONT. THE NAM WAS DOING
THE BEST. MODELS TENDED TO START OUT TOO WARM. OVERALL THE
GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE RIDGE STARTS OUT OVER THE AREA EARLY IN THE
NIGHT. AT THE SAME WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND RISING HEIGHTS WILL
OCCUR THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DOES MOVE THROUGH LATE IN THE NIGHT. MODELS DO HAVE SOME ELEVATED
CAPE BUT INHIBITION LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY STORMS FROM
DEVELOPING. ALSO VERY DEEP DRY LAYER WITH ONLY THE VERY LOW LEVELS
HAVING ANY MOISTURE. SO WILL KEEP THIS PERIOD DRY.

RETURN FLOW BECOMES THE STRONGEST OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION.
MODELS HINTING AT...MAINLY THE NAM...ABOUT SOME STRATUS DEVELOPING.
THIS MAY BE A BIT FAST. CONSIDERING THIS AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SPREADING IN CLOUDS...WILL INCREASE CLOUDS LATE IN THE NIGHT. THE
FAR EAST WILL HAVE THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE BEST COOLING
CONDITIONS THERE.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH A SURFACE
TROUGH INTO THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY.
THAT BOUNDARY LOOKS TO RETREAT TO THE WEST DURING THE EVENING WITH
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...PROBABLY DUE TO ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH. RIDGE ALOFT STARTS BUILDING IN WITH SOME MINOR
HEIGHT RISES.

THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE WITH DEWPOINTS TO THE
EAST OF IT IN THE 50S...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS DO DISAGREE WITH HOW
MUCH. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE ALOFT. DURING THE
NIGHT MODELS DO HAVE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVING ACROSS WITH
A DECENT AMOUNT OF CINH...WITH THE WEAKEST CAP LATER IN THE
NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE NORTHEAST. DURING THE DAY WILL KEEP THE IT
DRY NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH BUT WILL HAVE HIGH SILENT POPS. WILL
KEEP HIGH SILENT/DRY POPS DURING THE NIGHT. LOOKING LIKE IT WILL
BE DRY BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM.

PRESSURE GRADIENT AND FALLS WOULD SUPPORT BREEZY OR NEAR BREEZY
CONDITIONS TO THE EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. WIND DIRECTION DOES
NOT BECOME DOWNSLOPE EXCEPT MAYBE FOR THE FAR WEST. NEWER GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS A LITTLE WARMER FORECAST THAN PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND WILL USE
THE BETTER PERFORMING GUIDANCE IN MAKING THOSE ADJUSTMENTS. FOR THE
NIGHT...DOES LOOK LIKE A BETTER CHANCE FOR STRATUS AND MAYBE SOME
FOG. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER DUE TO PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
WINDS...HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND STRATUS.

MONDAY...LEE TROUGH PULLS BACK TO THE WEST OF THE AREA DURING THE
DAY WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN AND IS RATHER STRONG...ESPECIALLY AT 500 MB.
THE RIDGE MOVES SLIGHTLY EAST DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY ALLOW A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO APPROACH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON.

MODELS SHOW LITTLE TO NO CAP WITH AN ADEQUATE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. ALOFT THE TEMPERATURES ARE GETTING RATHER WARM BUT
BREAKABLE. SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NEAR THE WESTERN END OF THE AREA WITH
THE SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WEST. STORM MOTIONS ARE RATHER SLOW. AT
THIS TIME WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE FAR WEST.

NO DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS WHICH WILL HINDER THE WARMUP A
LITTLE. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAY AND GUIDANCE HAS GOTTEN WARMER. CONSIDERING THAT PLUS
RECENT RAINS...WILL NOT GO AS WARM AS THE WARMEST GUIDANCE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...DURING THIS PERIOD MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY AND
GRADUALLY DEEPENS/AMPLIFIES AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. MODELS SHOWING
NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION. AT
THE SURFACE...MODELS ARE ALSO SIMILAR WITH A PERSISTENT LEE
TROUGH/DRYLINE/SOME BOUNDARY NEAR OR OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF OUR
AREA WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS BRINGING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

THIS MATCHED WELL WITH WHAT THE CRH_INIT GAVE ME AND DID NOT CHANGE.
OVERALL DID NOT CHANGE ANYTHING WITH INIT PRODUCING REASONABLE
OUTPUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND
VICINITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR BOTH KMCK AND KGLD FOR THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE TAF PERIOD. VISIBILITY CONDITIONS FOR BOTH
TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR...HOWEVER MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE PRESENT
OVERNIGHT. LOW CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING WITH CLOUD
DECK BREAKING AT BOTH SITES.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...MK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1024 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-301630-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1024 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. LARGE HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

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