Red Flag Warning 4, NWS Goodland, KS

488 
WWUS83 KGLD 161652
RFWGLD

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1052 AM MDT MON MAR 16 2015

COZ252-253-KSZ001-015-016-028-029-042-NEZ079-170000-
/O.CON.KGLD.FW.W.0004.150316T1700Z-150317T0000Z/
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE KS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-LOGAN-GOVE-WICHITA-
DUNDY-
1052 AM MDT MON MAR 16 2015

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/
THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 001...015...016...028...029...042...079...252 AND 253...

* AFFECTED AREA...IN COLORADO...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 252 YUMA AND 
  FIRE WEATHER ZONE 253 KIT CARSON. IN KANSAS...FIRE WEATHER 
  ZONE 001 CHEYENNE KS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 015 SHERIDAN...FIRE 
  WEATHER ZONE 016 GRAHAM...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 028 LOGAN...FIRE 
  WEATHER ZONE 029 GOVE AND FIRE WEATHER ZONE 042 WICHITA. IN 
  NEBRASKA...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 079 DUNDY.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 5 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...FIRES WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY. PRESCRIBED BURNING IS 
  VERY DISCOURAGED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR ARE IMMINENT. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES CAN
CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/GLD (ALL LOWER CASE)

746 
WWUS83 KGLD 162325
RFWGLD

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
525 PM MDT MON MAR 16 2015

COZ252-253-KSZ001-015-016-028-029-042-NEZ079-170200-
/O.EXT.KGLD.FW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-150317T0200Z/
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE KS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-LOGAN-GOVE-WICHITA-
DUNDY-
525 PM MDT MON MAR 16 2015

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS
EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES
001...015...016...028...029...042...079...252 AND 253...

* AFFECTED AREA...IN COLORADO...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 252 YUMA AND 
  FIRE WEATHER ZONE 253 KIT CARSON. IN KANSAS...FIRE WEATHER 
  ZONE 001 CHEYENNE KS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 015 SHERIDAN...FIRE 
  WEATHER ZONE 016 GRAHAM...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 028 LOGAN...FIRE 
  WEATHER ZONE 029 GOVE AND FIRE WEATHER ZONE 042 WICHITA. IN 
  NEBRASKA...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 079 DUNDY.

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 6 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...FIRES WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY. PRESCRIBED BURNING IS 
  VERY DISCOURAGED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR ARE IMMINENT. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES CAN
CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/GLD (ALL LOWER CASE)

872 
WWUS83 KGLD 170141
RFWGLD

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
741 PM MDT MON MAR 16 2015

COZ252-253-KSZ001-015-016-028-029-042-NEZ079-170245-
/O.CAN.KGLD.FW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-150317T0200Z/
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE KS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-LOGAN-GOVE-WICHITA-
DUNDY-
741 PM MDT MON MAR 16 2015

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 001...015...016...028...029...
042...079...252 AND 253...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING.

THE COMBINATION OF SUNSET AND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE HAVE ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO DROP AND IN TURN INCREASE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ABOVE WARNING CRITERIA...PROMPTING THE CANCELLATION.

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/GLD (ALL LOWER CASE)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
200 AM MDT MON MAR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 730 PM MDT SUN MAR 15 2015

HAVE UPDATED ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR CANCELLATION OF RED FLAG WARNING
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. WITH SUNSET...TEMPS HAVE DROPPED
ENOUGH ALLOWING FOR INCREASED RH VALUES OVER THE AREA...AND WINDS
HAVE DECOUPLED AND DROPPED BELOW THRESHOLD AS WELL. REST OF
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 122 PM MDT SUN MAR 15 2015

A RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A WEAK AREA
OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIST ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO INTO
NORTHWEST KANSAS. LACK OF MOISTURE AND SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER DRY THROUGH MONDAY.  POPS WILL BE NIL FOR THOSE PERIODS.

PLAN TO KEEP THE CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING TO ITS 02Z MONDAY
EXPIRATION. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF
THE FA FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE ENOUGH WIND FOR
ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.  THE NAM SHOWS THAT THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THAT AREA DURING THE WATCH EFFECTIVE
TIME.  AS A RESULT, EVEN THOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE CRITICAL,
THE WINDS WILL LIKELY BE TOO LIGHT. THE GFS IS SLOWER WITH THE
TROUGH MOVING OVER THAT AREA, WHICH COULD LEAD TO A POSSIBLE
EXPANSION OF THE CRITICAL AREA.  SINCE THE NAM HAS A BETTER SURFACE
RESOLUTION WILL LEAN TOWARD ITS SOLUTION.  DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY
WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT WATCH FOR MONDAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL COOL TO THE UPPER 30S TONIGHT.  MAX
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL DEPEND ON THE LOCATION OF THE TROUGH.  MAX
TEMPERATURES COULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 AM MDT MON MAR 16 2015

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS AGREE ON BRINGING AN UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN THE
850-500MB LAYER LOW CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN LOOKS
GOOD. AT THE TAIL END OF THURSDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
WESTERN 1/3 OF THE AREA GET CLOSE TO AND SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING.
SOME OF THE RAIN MAY MIX WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60 WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE RETURNS TO THE AREA ALLOWING
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MILD WEATHER CONTINUES WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...NOT TERRIBLY CONFIDENT IN PRECIPITATION
FORECAST NOR PRECIP TYPE AS MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT IN LARGE SCALE
PATTERN. NO BIG CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM MDT SUN MAR 15 2015

VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES THRU FORECAST PERIOD. BOTH
AIRPORTS WILL SEE MIX OF SKC-SCT250. WIND SHEAR THRU 12Z MONDAY
FOR BOTH SITES UP TO 45KTS FROM THE SW...OTHER WINDS SSW 5-15KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS THRU MIDDAY...THEN NNW AROUND 10KTS INCREASING
TO 15-30KTS BY 03Z TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 200 AM MDT MON MAR 16 2015

RECORD AND NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY GET CLOSE TO AND/OR EXCEED ALL-
TIME MARCH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES. HERE IS A LIST OF RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY MARCH 16 2015:

GOODLAND.....86 IN 2012
HILL CITY....84 IN 2012
MCCOOK.......87 IN 1930
BURLINGTON...82 IN 2012
COLBY........82 IN 2013
TRIBUNE......83 IN 2013
YUMA.........78 IN 2013 AND PREVIOUS YEARS

ALL-TIME MARCH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WORTH WATCHING TODAY:

HILL CITY....94 ON MARCH 10 1989
TRIBUNE......88 ON MARCH 31 2010 AND PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON CDT TODAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR KSZ015-016-029.

CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...JN
CLIMATE...99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
733 PM MDT SUN MAR 15 2015

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-170145-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
733 PM MDT SUN MAR 15 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

FOR MONDAY...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL CREATE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
SHERIDAN...GRAHAM...AND GOVE COUNTIES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.