Red Flag Warning 16, NWS Goodland, KS

864 
WWUS83 KGLD 122359
RFWGLD

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
559 PM MDT MON OCT 12 2015

KSZ001>004-013>016-028-029-NEZ079>081-130100-
/O.EXP.KGLD.FW.W.0016.000000T0000Z-151013T0000Z/
CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-
LOGAN-GOVE-DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
559 PM MDT MON OCT 12 2015 /659 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2015/

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS
EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 001...002...003...004...013...
014...015...016...028...029...079...080 AND 081...

WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AND FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER
BEING MET...SO THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/GLD (ALL LOWER CASE)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1127 AM MDT MON OCT 12 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT MON OCT 12 2015

AS OF 3 AM CDT...2 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S TO LOW 60S FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WINDS ARE NORTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE
WAKE OF A LARGE MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH TODAY NOW EXTENDS FROM
NORTHEAST KANSAS TO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. ALOFT...THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH. AN AREA VERY DRY
AIR IS ADVECTING IN BASED ON LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

FOR A MORE IN DEPTH FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...PLEASE SEE THE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS...THE OVERALL WEATHER STORY REMAINS
UNCHANGED. A CONTINUATION OF PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER AND WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS ASSURED WITH AN ABNORMALLY STRONG RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FOR
TODAY...A RESPITE IS FORECAST FROM THE RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES
OBSERVED YESTERDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO ONLY RISE INTO THE LOW TO UPPER 70S...OR ON THE ORDER OF 15-25
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. WARMER WEATHER RETURNS ONCE AGAIN
TUESDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD RESUME MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. HIGHS SHOULD SURGE BACK TO THE LOW TO UPPER 80S.
THIS IS 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-OCTOBER BUT FALLS 5-10
DEGREES SHORT OF RECORD LEVELS. A SLIGHT COOLING IS FORECAST
WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. NO MAJOR UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO PASS
THROUGH AND WITH PERSISTENT DRY AIR OVER THE REGION...NO
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT MON OCT 12 2015

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. ON THURSDAY...AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WHILE A
DISTURBANCE TRAVELS THROUGH THE FLOW NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE HIGH
PLAINS FOR FRIDAY. DRY AIR IS STILL EXPECTED TO PREVENT THE FRONT
FROM GENERATING PRECIP.

COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE PLAINS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS THE CALIFORNIA UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES EAST TOWARD THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH...WITH THE GFS QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. AT THIS
TIME...GUIDANCE HAS ANY PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM WEST OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS EAST OF THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. THE
FORECAST AREA COULD SEE RAIN CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK IF ENOUGH
MOISTURE ADVECTS TOWARDS THE REGION IN FRONT OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

HIGHS IN THE 70S ARE FORECAST AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
ON THURSDAY BEFORE THURSDAY NIGHTS COLD FRONT BRINGS COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE HIGH PLAINS FOR FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
GRADUALLY RISE IN THE DAYS FOLLOWING THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S ON FRIDAY INCREASING TO THE LOW TO MID 70S BY SUNDAY.
LOWS APPEAR TO STEADILY WARM THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD FROM THE UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT MON OCT 12 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK TERMINALS. GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT TRANSITION
EASTWARD. LIGHT WINDS SHOULD THEN CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING WINDS AT KGLD AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING WITH A FEW
GUSTS AROUND 18KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT MON OCT 12 2015

ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS LIKELY TODAY WITH A BRIEF 1-2 HOUR WINDOW OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH
TODAY'S FORECAST IS THAT THE STRONGEST WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS DO NOT
OCCUR CONCURRENTLY WITH THE LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY. THIS
MORNING...A STRONG JET OF WINDS AROUND 1 KM OFF THE GROUND IS
PASSING OVER THE REGION. AS DAYTIME MIXING BEGINS AROUND MID-
MORNING...ANTICIPATE STRONGER GUSTS TO BEGIN MIXING TO THE SURFACE.
IN ADDITION TO STRONGER WINDS...DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
MIX DOWN...ALLOWING RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS TO PLUMMET.
HOWEVER...WITH COOLER POST-FRONTAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST...IT SHOULD
TAKE A FEW HOURS LONGER TO REACH THE NECESSARY 15 PERCENT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY CRITERIA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY
AFTER 1 PM MDT. AT THE SAME TIME...THE STRONG JET OF WINDS ALOFT
SHOULD BE HEADING EAST OUT OF THE REGION. AS THIS HAPPENS...SURFACE
WINDS/GUSTS WILL DRAMATICALLY WEAKEN. THEREFORE...AS MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS ARE ACHIEVED THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS
SHOULD BE RAPIDLY DROPPING OFF. BASED ON THIS REASONING...CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP BUT ARE NOT FORECAST TO LAST FOR
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME. THE WORST CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST FOR
AN HOUR OR TWO AROUND MID-AFTERNOON BEFORE IMPROVING FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AS A RESULT OF DIMINISHING WIND GUSTS OCCUR. DECIDED NOT
TO ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING BUT THIS THREAT WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...DR
FIRE WEATHER...RRH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1007 AM MDT MON OCT 12 2015

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-131615-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1007 AM MDT MON OCT 12 2015 /1107 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2015/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TODAY...GENERALLY EAST OF A
BENKELMAN NEBRASKA TO QUINTER KANSAS LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.