Red Flag Warning 15, NWS Goodland, KS

654 
WWUS83 KGLD 111401
RFWGLD

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
801 AM MDT SUN OCT 11 2015

...RED FLAG CONDITIONS FORECAST TODAY...

.VERY DRY AIR AND STRONGER WIND GUSTS MIXING DOWN FROM ALOFT WILL
LEAD TO RED FLAG CONDITIONS TODAY. THE PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN IS
ANY LOCATION NORTH OF THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER.

COZ252-NEZ079>081-120100-
/O.CON.KGLD.FW.W.0015.151011T1700Z-151012T0100Z/
YUMA-DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
801 AM MDT SUN OCT 11 2015 /901 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM MDT /NOON CDT/
THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 079...080...081 AND
252...

* AFFECTED AREA...IN COLORADO...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 252 YUMA. IN 
  NEBRASKA...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 079 DUNDY...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 080 
  HITCHCOCK AND FIRE WEATHER ZONE 081 RED WILLOW.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 13 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT START WILL HAVE EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR 
  AND SPREAD RAPIDLY. OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT ADVISED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR ARE IMMINENT. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES CAN
CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/GLD (ALL LOWER CASE)

958 
WWUS83 KGLD 120102
RFWGLD

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
702 PM MDT SUN OCT 11 2015

COZ252-NEZ079>081-120215-
/O.EXP.KGLD.FW.W.0015.000000T0000Z-151012T0100Z/
YUMA-DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
702 PM MDT SUN OCT 11 2015 /802 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015/

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES
079...080...081 AND 252...

WIND AND HUMIDITY VALUES WILL NO LONGER MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA AND
THE WARNING HAS EXPIRED.

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/GLD (ALL LOWER CASE)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1116 PM MDT SAT OCT 10 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT SAT OCT 10 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM MEXICO ACROSS EH SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES. A  SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND IS RESPONSIBLE FOR PASSING HIGH CLOUD COVER. AT THE
SURFACE...SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IS IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.

TONIGHT-SUNDAY...RIDGE TRANSITIONS TO WESTERLY  FLOW AS STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVES ALONG CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN THE PERSISTENT DRY AIR MASS REMAINING IN
PLACE OVER OUR CWA...WITH INCREASING WAA THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.
PRIMARY CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS
(SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION) AND RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE WILL SEE DAILY RECORD HIGHS BROKEN
ACROSS OUR CWA WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S SUNDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS
FAVORS HIGHS 90-95F...WHICH COULD STILL PLACE A FEW LOCATIONS
WITHIN RANGE OF MONTHLY RECORDS. WARMER END OF GUIDANCE NOW
SUPPORTS HIGHS 95 (GOODLAND) TO 100F (MCCOOK) WHICH WOULD BE ABOVE
MONTHLY RECORDS FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN OUR CWA. WHILE MIXING SHOULD
BE VERY DEEP FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...TEMPS ALOFT SEEM TO SUPPORT
THE LOWER END OF THIS SPECTRUM AND MODEL CONSENSUS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT SAT OCT 10 2015

UPPER FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AS A TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  AS THE TROUGH
MOVES FURTHER EAST MONDAY, FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS
SUNDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.  ANOTHER
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO TUESDAY.

THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY SUNDAY NIGHT EVEN THROUGH DYNAMICS FROM
THE UPPER TROUGH ARE NEARBY.  THERE IS SIMPLY A LACK OF MOISTURE AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.  THIS LACK OF MOISTURE AND SUBSIDENCE
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH TUESDAY.  CONSEQUENTLY POPS FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE NIL.

MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE COOLER IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND TO THE LOWER 80S TUESDAY.  MIN
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN EASTERN
COLORADO TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE FA. MIN
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE MID 40S.

IN THE EXTENDED...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE ROCKIES THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RESIDE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.  ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO EASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY.

THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE.  A TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO AN AREA
WEST OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SATURDAY BUT ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD
REMAIN WEST OF THE DIVIDE.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S DURING THIS
TIME.  MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S THROUGH
THURSDAY AND THEN COOL TO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1114 PM MDT SAT OCT 10 2015

VFR EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
RIDGING ALOFT RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
THERE WILL BE A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH FROM NEBRASKA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT SAT OCT 10 2015

SUNDAY AFTERNOON...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE STILL
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION. IF TD TRENDS AND MIXING HEIGHTS THIS
AFTERNOON ARE ANY INDICATION WE SHOULD SEE RH VALUES DROP BELOW 15
PERCENT ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE EVEN WARMER. THE BIGGEST QUESTION REGARDING POTENTIAL
RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE WINDS...WITH PEAK WINDS ALOFT STILL NORTH
OF OUR CWA. GFS HAS TRENDED HIGHER AND MAY SUPPORT A WINDOW OF RED
FLAG CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF HIGHWAY 34. NAM AND OTHER
GUIDANCE ON THE OTHER HAND SUPPORTS WHAT WOULD BE INFREQUENT WIND
GUSTS LESS THAN 25 MPH BASED ON CURRENT PEAK WINDS IN THE MIXED
LAYER. THIS IS A VERY NARROW WINDOW IN THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF OUR
CWA...AND 3HR OCCURRENCE IS IN DOUBT. I DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON
ISSUANCE OF WATCH DURING THIS FORECAST CYCLE DUE TO THE MARGINAL
WIND CONDITIONS.

MONDAY...DRY RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS MONDAY. HOWEVER, WINDS SPEEDS DO NOT APPEAR
STRONG ENOUGH TO MEET CRITERIA EXCEPT IN THE MORNING OVER NORTHERN
AREAS WHEN RH VALUES WILL HIGHER. WIND SPEEDS DECREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS RH VALUES GO LOWER BUT SPEEDS THEN WILL EVEN BE
LOWER. LATER SHIFTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR FIRE WEATHER FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT SAT OCT 10 2015

RECORDS FOR SATURDAY

GOODLAND.....90 SET IN 1920
TRIBUNE......91 SET IN 1920
BURLINGTON...90 SET IN 1962
YUMA.........87 SET IN 1962

RECORDS FOR SUNDAY

GOODLAND.....93 SET IN 1996 (MONTHLY RECORD 96 IN 1926)
COLBY........90 SET IN 1955 (MONTHLY RECORD 97 IN 2000)
TRIBUNE......90 SET IN 1975 (MONTHLY RECORD 95 IN 2007)
HILL CITY....94 SET IN 1975
BURLINGTON...90 SET IN 1996 (MONTHLY RECORD 93 IN 2007)
YUMA.........86 SET IN 1989
MCCOOK.......90 SET IN 1962 (MONTHLY RECORD 98 IN 1928)

FORECAST FOR SUNDAY

GOODLAND.....91
COLBY........94
TRIBUNE......92
HILL CITY....96
BURLINGTON...90
YUMA.........89
MCCOOK.......95

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...024
FIRE WEATHER...DR/FS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1039 AM MDT SAT OCT 10 2015

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-111645-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1039 AM MDT SAT OCT 10 2015 /1139 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ON
SUNDAY...THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
SHOULD LIE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36. ON MONDAY...THE GREATEST THREAT
SHOULD BE EAST OF A LINE FROM STRATTON NEBRASKA TO QUINTER KANSAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.