Flash Flood Warning 6, NWS Goodland, KS

309 
WGUS53 KGLD 230432
FFWGLD
COC063-230845-
/O.EXT.KGLD.FF.W.0006.000000T0000Z-150523T0845Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1032 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  NORTHERN KIT CARSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...

* UNTIL 245 AM MDT
    
* AT 1028 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING 
  HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. THREE TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN 
  HAVE FALLEN. FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY ONGOING.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
  FLAGLER AND SEIBERT. 

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE 
THROUGH 245 AM MDT.

FLOOD WATERS ARE MOVING DOWN HELL CREEK AND THE SOUTH FORK 
REPUBLICAN RIVER FROM SEIBERT AND FLAGLER TO THE YUMA COUNTY LINE 
SOUTH OF IDALIA. 

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 70 IN COLORADO BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 401 AND 406.
 HIGHWAY 385 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 204 AND 206.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.

TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

&&

LAT...LON 3957 10289 3957 10206 3936 10285 3927 10286
      3927 10309

$$

HUSTED

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
637 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS CLOSED LOW OVER
THE SW US...WITH A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE/NORTHEAST COLORADO. SATELLITE SHOWS CLEARING
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE SW PART OF THE CWA...WITH STRATUS/SHOWERS
TRANSITIONING NORTHWARDS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO
FIRE ALONG PALMER DIVING ALONG NORTHERN EXTENT OF SURFACE LOW IN
EASTERN COLORADO.

REGARDING SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
CLEARING TAKING PLACE IN THE SW RAP AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATED
500-1500 J/KG OF SB CAPE ALREADY DEVELOPING...AND GUIDANCE WOULD
FAVOR THIS DEVELOPING INTO THE SW PART OF THE CWA (ASSOCIATED WITH
CLEARING. GOOD VEERING PROFILES ARE IN PLACE ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF
THE SURFACE LOW WHERE RAP IS HINTING AT HELICITY VALUES APPROACHING
250 M2/S2 BY 00Z. ORGANIZED SUPERCELL/TORNADO THREAT SEEMS TO BE
TIED TO THIS SURFACE LOW AND WOULD FAVOR THE SOUTHWEST PART OF OUR
CWA. DEEP SPEED SHEER CONTINUES OVERNIGHT AND GUIDANCE INDICATES
AROUND 1000 J/KG OF MU CAPE (POSSIBLY HIGHER IF NAM IS TO BE
TRUSTED). STRONG ISENTROPIC SIGNAL CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME
PERIOD...AND SEVERAL LOBES OF VORTICITY AND OMEGA ROTATE THROUGH
THE REGION. THIS SHOULD COMBINE TO CREATE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY A SEVERE HAIL THREAT IF WE SEE ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. NOT AS SURE ABOUT WIND THREAT CONSIDERING THE
PROFILES AND STABLE LOWER LEVELS.

FOG/STRATUS/DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE ALL NIGHT WITH GOOD BL MOISTURE
FLUX THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...TRANSITIONING EASTWARD. WITH BETTER
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM/DRIZZLE COVERAGE DENSE FOG MAY NOT BE AS MUCH OF
A CONCERN DUE TO THE INCREASE IN MIXING. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS
LESS MIXING WOULD RESULT IN DENSE FOG DUE TO THE LONG FETCH
UPSLOPE/MAGNITUDE OF MOISTURE ADVECTION.

GUIDANCES SHOWS TWO DISTINCT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SATURDAY
MORNING...ONE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ANOTHER DEVELOPING INTO
NORTHERN COLORADO BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE H3 JET BEGINS TO SHIFT
EASTWARD. THERE SEEMS TO BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES LIKELY DUE TO SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE...AND NAM IS REALLY
HITTING THIS DRY PERIOD HARDER COMPARED TO GFS/ECMWF. DECIDED OT
TIMING OUT THE LULL TO FAVOR LOWER POPS SAT MORNING...BEFORE
COVERAGE REDEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON. BETTER PRECIP SIGNAL IS AGAIN
IN EASTERN COLORADO BY MID AFTERNOON. CAPE PROFILES ARE MUCH MORE
ROBUST ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA...AS WELL AS GOOD SHEER. AS A
RESULT WE WILL PROBABLY SEE A BETTER SEVERE THREAT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW OVER UT/CO AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT NOT BEFORE SWINGING SEVERAL MORE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
AROUND ITS PERIPHERY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE PATTERN WILL
BE SOMEWHAT LESS ACTIVE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL A BIT MORE OF THE HIT-AND-MISS VARIETY
BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE WEST TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK. OVERALL...THE LONG RANGE PERIOD WILL BE ONE OF DECREASING
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO SEASONAL
NORMS IN THE 70S/LOW 80S FOR HIGHS AND 50S FOR LOWS.

TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THERE IS DECENT POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES INTO WESTERN COLORADO AND A SURFACE DRYLINE SETS UP OVER
EC/SE COLORADO. A 100 KT 250 MB JET STREAK WILL BE RUNNING UP THE
EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW ALONG THE C0-KS BORDER DURING PEAK
HEATING...AND WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE...A ROUND
OF SEVERE STORMS SEEMS PROBABLE IN EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN
KANSAS. STORMS WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTH INTO NEBRASKA DURING THE
EVENING.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...THE TAIL END OF THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH
WILL FINALLY SWING THROUGH THE AREA SO CONTINUED CHANCE POPS AS A
RESULT. WEAK SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS FEATURE ON MONDAY WILL PROVIDE
A LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE ONSLAUGHT OF RECENT PRECIPITATION.

MID WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A QUASI ZONAL FLOW WITH A FEW
WEAK EMBEDDED TROUGH WHICH WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS BUT OTHERWISE ACCOMPANIED BY TEMPERATURES MORE
TYPICAL OF LATE MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 557 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CONDITIONS AT GLD WILL START OUT IFR WITH A FEW SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 04Z AND 08Z LOWERING CONDITIONS TO
LIFR. DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED AFTER 08Z WITH CEILINGS LOWERING
CONDITIONS TO VLIFR THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. AFTER 14Z...CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH VFR EXPECTED AFTER 18Z.

MCK WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN IFR AND LIFR THROUGH ABOUT 04Z WITH LIFR
DROPPING TO VLIFR AFTER 08Z DUE MAINLY TO LOW CEILINGS WITH
SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE CONTINUING ABOUT 16Z. AFTER 16Z...CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE DAY WITH MAINLY LIFR TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...LOCKHART

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1104 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-231715-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1104 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. THIS THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD NORTH AND EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREAT OVERNIGHT WILL BE
LARGE HAIL WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

WIDESPREAD FOG IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH VISIBILITIES BELOW ONE
MILE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

FOG WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE SATURDAY MORNING...WITH VISIBILITIES
OF A HALF TO A QUARTER MILE WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVING BY MIDDAY.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING OVER
PARTS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA EAST OF HIGHWAY
27. DURING THE AFTERNOON A SECOND ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER IS VERY
LIKELY...BEGINNING OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO AND SPREADING EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SUNDAY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP EAST OF THE COLORADO
BORDER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
618 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

COZ091-230045-
KIT CARSON COUNTY CO-
618 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL KIT CARSON COUNTY UNTIL
645 PM MDT...

AT 618 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
STRATTON...MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
STRATTON AND BETHUNE.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 IN COLORADO BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 417 AND
429.

LAT...LON 3919 10248 3921 10266 3938 10268 3935 10237
TIME...MOT...LOC 0018Z 197DEG 5KT 3926 10260

HUSTED

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
640 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

COZ091-230130-
KIT CARSON COUNTY CO-
640 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL KIT CARSON COUNTY UNTIL
730 PM MDT...

AT 640 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4
MILES EAST OF STRATTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BURLINGTON...STRATTON AND BETHUNE.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 70 IN COLORADO BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 418 AND 433.
 HIGHWAY 385 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 190 AND 191.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3922 10251 3930 10267 3952 10249 3933 10223
TIME...MOT...LOC 0040Z 223DEG 15KT 3930 10253

HUSTED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
659 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0653 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 W BETHUNE             39.32N 102.52W
05/22/2015                   KIT CARSON         CO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SHERIFF DEPUTY REPORTS WATER OVER THE ROAD BETWEEN COUNTY
            ROAD 36 AND COUNTY ROAD 34, NEARLY IMPASSABLE.

&&

TLYNCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
701 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     4 SE STRATTON           39.27N 102.55W
05/22/2015                   KIT CARSON         CO   STORM CHASER

            STORM CHASER REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD 4 MILES SE OF
            STRATTON, CO.

&&

TLYNCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
728 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

COZ091-230145-
KIT CARSON COUNTY CO-
728 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL KIT CARSON COUNTY
UNTIL 745 PM MDT...

AT 727 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5
MILES NORTHWEST OF STRATTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTH CENTRAL KIT
CARSON COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3931 10273 3940 10281 3950 10261 3938 10250
TIME...MOT...LOC 0127Z 236DEG 16KT 3937 10267

HUSTED

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
741 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

COZ091-230215-
KIT CARSON COUNTY CO-
741 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL KIT CARSON COUNTY
UNTIL 815 PM MDT...

AT 741 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6
MILES NORTH OF STRATTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTH CENTRAL KIT
CARSON COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3933 10267 3939 10271 3951 10253 3937 10245
TIME...MOT...LOC 0141Z 245DEG 10KT 3939 10263

HUSTED