Flash Flood Warning 57, NWS Goodland, KS

606 
WGUS73 KGLD 170407
FFSGLD

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1007 PM MDT SUN AUG 16 2015

KSC071-170545-
/O.CON.KGLD.FF.W.0057.000000T0000Z-150817T0545Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GREELEY KS-
1007 PM MDT SUN AUG 16 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 PM MDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN GREELEY COUNTY...

AT 1006 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING 
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. RADAR ESTIMATES OF FIVE AND A 
HALF INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN 
SHORTLY IF NOT ALREADY OCCURRING.

FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN
GREELEY COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING.

&&

LAT...LON 3848 10204 3838 10187 3826 10176 3826 10204

$$

LUNDQUIST

576 
WGUS73 KGLD 170540
FFSGLD

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1140 PM MDT SUN AUG 16 2015

KSC071-170550-
/O.EXP.KGLD.FF.W.0057.000000T0000Z-150817T0545Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GREELEY KS-
1140 PM MDT SUN AUG 16 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN GREELEY COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 1145 PM MDT...

FLOOD WATERS HAVE RECEDED...AND ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED TO POSE A
THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. PLEASE CONTINUE TO HEED ANY ROAD
CLOSURES.

LAT...LON 3848 10204 3838 10187 3826 10176 3826 10204

$$

LUNDQUIST

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
708 PM MDT SUN AUG 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 PM MDT SUN AUG 16 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR STORMS BEING TIED TO THE COLD
FRONT AS IT IS PUSHED SOUTHWARD. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO MOVE
SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...AND BE SOUTH OF
THE AREA AN HOUR OR SO AFTER MIDNIGHT.

BEHIND THE FRONT THE COOLER AIR AND LACK OF LIFT HAVE SERVED TO
END ANY STORMS THAT LINGER TOO LONG BEHIND THE FRONT. DO EXPECT
THE STORM ACTIVITY EAST OF HIGHWAY 25 TO CONTINUE INTO MID
EVENING BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA DUE TO THE NOSE OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET HELPING TO SUSTAIN THOSE STORMS.

TO THE WEST ANOTHER AREA OF STORMS IS SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE
AREA. HAVE NOTICED THE LEADING LINE OF STORMS HAS DISSIPATED AS
THEY ENCOUNTER THE FRONT. MODELS SHOW SOME ISENTROPIC OVER THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...SO WILL HAVE HIGHER CHANCES FOR
RAIN THERE DECLINING TO THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT SUN AUG 16 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WITH AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. PLUMES OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ORIGINATING IN THE
PACIFIC ARE ROTATING AROUND THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
LARGE SCALE RIDGE INTO THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. DIFFLUENT FLOW IS
CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH TROUGH DIGGING
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A FEW WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE JUST TO
THE WEST/NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA. AT THE SURFACE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO NORTHCENTRAL COLORADO
OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST PART OF OUR CWA. PREFRONTAL TROUGH AXIS IS IN
PLACE FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO OVER GOODLAND AND NORTON KANSAS.

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD INITIATE
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH WITH
COVERAGE INCREASING THIS EVENING AS A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION. RECENT TRENDS IN ARW/NMM HAVE BEEN
TO SHIFT MOST ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER TO THE SOUTH ROUGHLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. CURRENTLY THE ORIENTATION OF FLOW
ALOFT AND OTHER GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS
ORIGINATING FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST OF THIS. EITHER WAY...DEEP
MOIST AIR MASS AND DECENT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF FRONT WILL SUPPORT
ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF CWA TRANSITIONING EASTWARD. STRONGEST CAPE
AXIS IF FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE INDICATED...THOUGH THERE
IS ENOUGH ELEVATED CAPE TO AT LEAST CONSIDER POTENTIAL FOR
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. DCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG COINCIDING DRY ADIABATIC
PROFILES BELOW 700MB COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE DOWNDRAFT
POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH AS MIXING RATIOS INCREASE
BELOW 700MB THIS EVENING THIS THREAT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH.

REGARDING FLASH FLOOD WATCH...ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT VALUES 1.2-1.6
WILL ONLY INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT APPROACHING 1.7-1.8 WHICH IS
WELL WITHIN 99TH PERCENTILE OR 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL.
WITH VERY SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND POSSIBILITY FOR
TRAINING/BACKBUILDING I AM COMFORTABLE WITH FLASH FLOOD WATCH. IF
ARW/NMM SOLUTION PANS OUT THEN WE MAY NEED TO CONSIDER ADDING
SOUTHERN PART OF FORECAST AREA TO WATCH.

MONDAY...WHILE FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD OCCUR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
MONDAY...GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A LOT OF SPREAD ON TIMING. THIS LOWERS
CONFIDENCE/TIMING OF ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ARW/NMM SHOW
A MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER DEVELOPING ALONG FRONT MONDAY
MORNING...THOUGH OTHER GUIDANCE IS SHOWING PREDOMINANTLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED ACTIVITY LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA. DEEP MOIST LAYER
REMAINS IN PLACE...SO WITH POTENTIAL FOR OVERRUNNING ALONG BAROCLINIC
ZONE...IT IS POSSIBLE FOR A MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTER IF WE CONTINUE TO
SEE WEAK HEIGHT FALL...WHICH COULD ALSO RESULT CONTINUING THREAT FOR
FLASH FLOODING.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT
ON FRONTAL POSITION/TIMING AS BETTER INSTABILITY WILL TEND TO BE
AHEAD OF FRONT. AS WITH TODAY...THREATS WOULD BE LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING
WINDS ALONG/SOUTH OF FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT SUN AUG 16 2015

FOR THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PACKAGE...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY...BRINGING AN END TO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND A TEMPORARY PARDON FROM THE WARMTH AND
HUMIDITY. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT RETURNS BEHIND TUESDAY'S SYSTEM. WITH
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED
TO FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...BRINING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE MOST IMPACTFUL WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD IS
ANTICIPATED MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. ACTIVE WEATHER
IS FORECAST AS A LARGE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH KICKS OUT OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS. STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION MONDAY EVENING DEPENDING ON THE FRONT
LOCATION AND ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS. ANY POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT MAY BE HIGHER MONDAY EVENING AS INITIAL DEVELOPMENT IN
COLORADO SHOULD BE MOVING IN. THE PRIMARY THREATS FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AS MENTIONED IN THE DAY 2
STORM PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOK...SURFACE VORTICITY/HELICITY
MAXIMIZED IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT MAY PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY
FOR A TORNADO TO OCCUR. CONFIDENCE IN THIS ISN'T AS HIGH AS HIGHER
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD POOL
DEVELOPMENT...HIGHLIGHTING A HIGHER THREAT OF MCS DEVELOPMENT WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT. IN TERMS OF FLASH FLOODING...A
THREAT WILL STILL EXIST ESPECIALLY IF HEAVY RAINS ARE RECEIVED
TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALL AS THE FRONT DOES FORCE SOME
MOISTURE SOUTH SO WE NO LONGER EXPECT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
NEARING THE 99TH PERCENTILE. STORM MOVEMENT REMAINS QUITE SLOW IN
TERMS OF STEERING WINDS ALOFT SO COLD POOL FORMATION/MOVEMENT SHOULD
BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER. THEREFORE...A FLASH FLOOD THREAT MAY PERSIST
AND ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY EVENING IN
LATER FORECAST PACKAGES.

ON TUESDAY...THE FRONT SHOULD FINALLY SLIDE ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE
REGION...RESTRICTING HIGHEST INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND
PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WHEN
THIS COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH TIME FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS WOULD MEAN SEVERE WEATHER
IS POSSIBLE BUT UNLIKELY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL PERTURBATIONS
MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE MAIN FORCING AND WITH SOME
INSTABILITY REMAINING IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...THERE SHOULD
BE ADDITIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY REMAINS IN DOUBT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 536 PM MDT SUN AUG 16 2015

VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 0Z TAFS. MAIN ISSUE IS
TIMING THE BEST WINDOW FOR STORMS TO MOVE OVER THE TAF SITES.
STORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING VERY SPORADICALLY ALONG AND BEHIND A
COLD FRONT THAT IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STORMS OVER THE SITES WILL
BE THE EVENING HOURS. AFTER THAT CONFIDENCE IS LESS WHETHER STORMS
WILL BE OVER THE SITES SO HAVE VCTS UNTIL LATER IN THE NIGHT WHEN
ENVIRONMENT LOOKS LESS FAVORABLE FOR STORM COVERAGE.

MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES
DUE TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL. THOUGHT ABOUT PLACING A MENTION OF MVFR
VISIBILITY IN THE TEMPO GROUPS FOR THIS REASON...BUT AM NOT THAT
CONFIDENT THE REDUCED VISIBILITY FROM THE STORMS WILL BE LONG
ENOUGH TO WARRANT THAT LOW A MENTION IN THE TAFS. KMCK DID REPORT
VISIBILITIES AROUND 2 MILES DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FOR A FEW
MINUTES...SO WOULD EXPECT THESE BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES
IF HEAVY RAINFALL MOVES OVER THE SITES.

OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
BRINGING MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS TO KMCK...BUT LOOKS TO REMAIN
NORTH OF KGLD AT THIS TIME. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH
MOST OF THE MORNING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM MDT /7 AM CDT/ MONDAY FOR
     KSZ001>003-013-014.

CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ090-091.

NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM MDT /7 AM CDT/ MONDAY FOR
     NEZ079>081.

&&

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JTL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
307 PM MDT SUN AUG 16 2015

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-172115-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
307 PM MDT SUN AUG 16 2015 /407 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL UP TO ONE INCH AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. HEAVY RAIN WITH SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA AS STORMS DEVELOP NEAR A COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE AREA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND CAN BE
EXPECTED. A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING IS LIKELY WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TRI-STATE REGION
TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WOULD BE THE MAIN
THREATS. THUNDERSTORMS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
803 PM MDT SUN AUG 16 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0802 PM     HAIL             TRIBUNE                 38.47N 101.75W
08/16/2015  E0.88 INCH       GREELEY            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

KOCHASIC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
908 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015

KSZ042-170245-
WICHITA KS-
908 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WICHITA COUNTY UNTIL 945 PM
CDT...

AT 908 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5
MILES EAST OF TRIBUNE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LEOTI AND SELKIRK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3859 10157 3870 10135 3870 10133 3833 10117
      3828 10157
TIME...MOT...LOC 0208Z 250DEG 27KT 3849 10165

JRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
809 PM MDT SUN AUG 16 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0808 PM     HAIL             3 E TRIBUNE             38.47N 101.70W
08/16/2015  E0.75 INCH       GREELEY            KS   PUBLIC

&&

KOCHASIC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
810 PM MDT SUN AUG 16 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0809 PM     TSTM WND GST     TRIBUNE                 38.47N 101.75W
08/16/2015  M56 MPH          GREELEY            KS   AWOS

&&

KOCHASIC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
818 PM MDT SUN AUG 16 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0817 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 N WINONA              39.09N 101.25W
08/16/2015                   LOGAN              KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            18 INCHES OF WATER RUNNING OVER COUNTY ROAD 230. ROAD
            CLOSED BETWEEN WINONA AND THOMAS COUNTY LINE. WATER IS
            ABOUT 75 TO 100 YARDS WIDE.

&&

KOCHASIC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
821 PM MDT SUN AUG 16 2015

KSZ041-170245-
GREELEY KS-
821 PM MDT SUN AUG 16 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN GREELEY COUNTY UNTIL 845
PM MDT...

AT 821 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES EAST OF TRIBUNE TO
11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TOWNER...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TRIBUNE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3836 10204 3854 10159 3828 10157 3826 10203
TIME...MOT...LOC 0221Z 333DEG 24KT 3845 10165 3834 10193

JRM