Flash Flood Warning 48, NWS Goodland, KS

817 
WGUS73 KGLD 032338
FFSGLD

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
538 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

COC017-063-040200-
/O.CON.KGLD.FF.W.0048.000000T0000Z-150804T0200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
KIT CARSON CO-CHEYENNE CO-
538 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM MDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN KIT CARSON AND NORTHEASTERN CHEYENNE COUNTIES...

AT 537 PM MDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED THUNDERSTORMS 
PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN IN ARAPAHOE.  FLASH FLOODING WAS OCCURRING 6 
MILES NORTHWEST OF TOWN ON LOCAL ROADS.

FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN
KIT CARSON AND NORTHEASTERN CHEYENNE COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.

&&

LAT...LON 3891 10208 3883 10232 3907 10257 3918 10222

$$

JN

237 
WGUS73 KGLD 040027
FFSGLD

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
627 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

COC017-063-040036-
/O.CAN.KGLD.FF.W.0048.000000T0000Z-150804T0200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
KIT CARSON CO-CHEYENNE CO-
627 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN KIT CARSON AND
NORTHEASTERN CHEYENNE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED...AND FLOODING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO POSE
A THREAT.

LAT...LON 3891 10208 3883 10232 3907 10257 3918 10222

$$

JN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
227 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY
AND TOP THE RIDGE OVER THE ADJACENT PLAINS. CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE ALREADY IN EASTERN COLORADO.
HOWEVER...RETURNS ON THE THE NORTHERN FRINGE ARE DISSIPATING
RATHER QUICKLY IN AN AREA OF REDUCED INSTABILITY PER LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS...PERHAPS DUE TO PERSISTENT MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER
LIMITING INSOLATION. THIS IS IN LINE WITH HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE
WHICH SUGGESTS BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT WILL BE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 AND PERHAPS EVEN SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 40...AS COLD FRONT
SAGS INTO THAT AREA AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE. SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
LIMITED BY DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF LESS THAN 20KTS...WITH
PERHAPS A STRONGER STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HEAVY RAIN. ACTIVITY WILL WANE OVERNIGHT WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER DECOUPLING.

CONVECTION EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SLOW
MOVING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER PLAINS AND
BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...THE OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH WELL INTO NEBRASKA BY THE
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD NOT BE A PLAYER...HOWEVER A FAIRLY SHARP LEE
TROUGH/DRY LINE SETS UP NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AREA AND MAY BE
THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. STORMS WILL MOVE EAST INTO A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE/HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT IN NORTHWEST KANSAS
AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
PARTICULARLY CONCERNING...UP TO 55KTS...SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MAIN LIMITING FACTORS WILL
BE THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER FORCING AND DESTABILIZATION THAT
HINGES ON MORNING CLOUD EROSION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

A RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN
TRANSITION INTO THE PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE RIDGE WILL
FLATTEN SOME THURSDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL
SHIFT EAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER TORUGH OVER CENTRAL COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE INTO
EASTERN COLORADO THURSDAY AND THEN SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE PANHANDLE
REGION THUSDAY AFTERNOON.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE FA.  THE MAIN DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE WILL
PROVIDE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
FA. A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER PAST 06Z WEDNESDAY IN THE FAR EASTERN FA
WHERE THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF H8-7
LAYER MEAN RH SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WHEN POPS WILL BE NIL. SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY
MORNING.  A SHORTWAVE IS ADVERTIZED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.  A FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
SHIFTS INTO THE PANHANDLE REGION. MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.  MAX
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

IN THE EXTENDED..(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...

A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY.  NUMEROUS
SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE OVER THE RIDGE AND INITIATE STORMS ACROSS THE
FA DURING THIS TIME.  OTHER THAN SUNDAY, EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY
WILL HAVE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF STORMS OVER A LARGE
PART OF THE FA.

MIN TEMPERATIRES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS WARMING SLIGHTLY TO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL VARY
FROM THE UPPER 80S IN EASTERN COLORADO TO THE LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE FA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH TODAY IN ADVANCE OF
A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THERE IS A SLIM
CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING KGLD TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LACKING WITH MOST STORMS REMAINING SOUTH. OVERNIGHT...LOW CLOUDS
MAY IMPACT KGLD TOWARDS DAWN WITH MODELS INDICATING MVFR CEILINGS
BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...024

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1035 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-041645-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1035 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015 /1135 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
303 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

COZ091-032145-
KIT CARSON COUNTY CO-
303 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL KIT CARSON COUNTY
UNTIL 345 PM MDT...

AT 301 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 16
MILES SOUTH OF STRATTON...MOVING WEST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM AND CAN EXPECT UP TO AN
INCH OF RAIN IN VERY LOCALIZED SPOTS.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KIT
CARSON COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3904 10299 3926 10274 3907 10247 3904 10251
TIME...MOT...LOC 2101Z 111DEG 21KT 3907 10267

JN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
307 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

KSZ041-042-032145-
GREELEY KS-WICHITA KS-
307 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN GREELEY AND
SOUTHWESTERN WICHITA COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM MDT/445 PM CDT/...

AT 306 PM MDT /406 PM CDT/...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TRIBUNE...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS NEAR AN INCH AND WIND
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LEOTI...TRIBUNE...HORACE AND SELKIRK.

LAT...LON 3836 10186 3852 10192 3857 10134 3826 10141
      3826 10179
TIME...MOT...LOC 2106Z 161DEG 21KT 3843 10167

JN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
351 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

COZ092-032230-
CHEYENNE COUNTY CO-
351 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL CHEYENNE COUNTY UNTIL 430
PM MDT...

AT 350 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES NORTHEAST OF KIT CARSON...OR 18 MILES WEST OF CHEYENNE WELLS...
MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS NEAR AN INCH...AND WIND
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF CENTRAL CHEYENNE
COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3877 10257 3878 10280 3897 10281 3897 10251
TIME...MOT...LOC 2150Z 182DEG 18KT 3885 10269

JN