Wind Advisory 4, NWS Grand Junction, CO

365 
WWUS75 KGJT 280155
NPWGJT

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
755 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

COZ001-002-UTZ027-280300-
/O.EXP.KGJT.WI.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-150728T0200Z/
LOWER YAMPA RIVER BASIN-CENTRAL YAMPA RIVER BASIN-
ARCHES/GRAND FLAT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RANGELY...DINOSAUR...CRAIG...HAYDEN...
MEEKER...MOAB...CASTLE VALLEY...THOMPSON SPRINGS
755 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
WILL BE DROPPING BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. THEREFORE...THE WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING. 

$$

COZ003-UTZ025-280300-
/O.EXP.KGJT.WI.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-150728T0200Z/
ROAN AND TAVAPUTS PLATEAUS-TAVAPUTS PLATEAU-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...RIO BLANCO
755 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
WILL BE DROPPING BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. THEREFORE...THE WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1032 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

AN ENERGETIC SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
THROUGH TOMORROW. AS A RESULT...INCREASING GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS A DRY FRONT MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SCENARIO WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND WEST-
CENTRAL COLORADO...DISCUSSED IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST TODAY WITH ISOLATED POPS
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO.
BREEZY-WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE REGION WITH
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING HOURS. AS THE
ENERGETIC LOW MOVES NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN CANADA ON TUESDAY..DRY
CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN ACROSS NOAM THIS
WEEK. AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND PARK OVER HUDSON BAY REGION
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SHIFT OF LOW PRESSURE
FROM THE NORTHWEST STATES TO EASTERN CANADA WILL FORCE THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH WESTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
VICINITY OF THE 4 CORNERS BY THE WEEKEND. THE ORIENTATION OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE CELL WILL BE EAST TO WEST THROUGH MID WEEK...BUT IT
WILL BE RE-ORIENTING DIAGONALLY ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. THE POLAR JET STREAM WILL BE LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH
DURING THIS TIME. A SECONDARY WIND MAXIMA WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN CWA WHERE A THERMAL GRADIENT WILL EXIST BETWEEN THE
WARMER AIR UNDER THE RIDGE AND COOLER AIR TO THE NORTH. ASCENT FROM
JET WILL BE FAVORED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE
WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTRAL CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS
WILL KEEP A THREAT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN BORDER ZONES THIS WEEK...FAVORING THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.
TO THE NORTH A DRIER FLOW WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE AND
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEEK/S END. MOISTURE WILL
EVENTUALLY SATURATE THE RIDGE AND IT APPEARS CHANCED FOR A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR BY NEXT
WEEKEND. FOR THE MOST PART KEPT BLENDED MODEL SOLUTION FOR POPS.
HOWEVER THINK THERE IS A COOL TEMPERATURE BIAS AND DID PUSH HIGHS
UPWARDS THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS EQUATES TO HIGHS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL
GOING MID WEEK ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1032 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

WINDS CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR AVIATION OPERATIONS TODAY.
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO MIX TO THE SURFACE BY 18Z-19Z...
WITH LINGERING WINDSHEAR ENDING AS THIS OCCURS. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS SURFACE WIND
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 40KTS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT...THEN DECREASING. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE UNTIL AROUND
04Z. WINDS ALOFT WILL AGAIN INCREASE EARLY TUE MORNING FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF LOW LEVEL WINDSHEAR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A TIGHTENING SURFACE GRADIENT WHICH WILL
BRING INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A
WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
BOUNDARY. FUELS WILL BE AT CRITICAL LEVELS BASED ON LATEST INPUT
FROM PARTNERS. FORECASTED RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE BELOW 15
PERCENT AND EXPECTED WIND GUSTS WILL BE OVER 25 MPH...AND UP TO 40
MPH..THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE RED FLAG
WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
COLORADO...INCLUDING FIRE WEATHER ZONES 200...201...202 AND 203.
THE GUSTY NATURE TO THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY SUNSET
TONIGHT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ200>203.

UT...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MPM
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...EH
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
357 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-281000-
LOWER YAMPA RIVER BASIN-CENTRAL YAMPA RIVER BASIN-
ROAN AND TAVAPUTS PLATEAUS-ELKHEAD AND PARK MOUNTAINS-
UPPER YAMPA RIVER BASIN-GRAND VALLEY-DEBEQUE TO SILT CORRIDOR-
CENTRAL COLORADO RIVER BASIN-GRAND AND BATTLEMENT MESAS-
GORE AND ELK MOUNTAINS/CENTRAL MOUNTAIN VALLEYS-
CENTRAL GUNNISON AND UNCOMPAHGRE RIVER BASIN-
WEST ELK AND SAWATCH MOUNTAINS-FLATTOPS-
UPPER GUNNISON RIVER VALLEY-UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU AND DALLAS DIVIDE-
NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-
PARADOX VALLEY/LOWER DOLORES RIVER-
FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER-ANIMAS RIVER BASIN-
SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN-SOUTHEAST UTAH-EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN UINTA BASIN-TAVAPUTS PLATEAU-ARCHES/GRAND FLAT-
LA SAL AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS-CANYONLANDS/NATURAL BRIDGES-
357 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL LEAD TO WARM
AND WINDY CONDITIONS OVER EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO
TODAY. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE PUSHED EAST ON THESE WINDS
AND...EXCEPT FOR A FEW STORMS OVER THE DIVIDE MOUNTAINS...DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN COLORADO AND
EASTERN UTAH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED.