Severe Thunderstorm Warning 9, NWS Grand Junction, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
335 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

RADAR THIS AFTERNOON A BIT MORE SUBDUED COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.
HOWEVER UPSTREAM MOSAIC SHOWS PLENTY OF ACTION ASSOCIATED WITH A A
PV LOBE ROTATING INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN...AROUND THE PARENT
LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. VORTICITY IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE
EXIT REGION OF A JET LEVEL SPEED MAX WHICH IN TURN IS TIGHTENING A
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION DROPPING THROUGH OUR NORTHERN CWA LATE THIS
EVENING. CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY IN THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
OVERNIGHT LOOKS TO BE RELEASED BY THE FRONTO BAND AND KEPT THE
HIGHEST POPS RUNNING NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 THROUGH SUNRISE.
ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE BUT CONFIDENCE NOT AS
HIGH AND POPS WILL BE TRENDING DOWNWARD AFTER SUNSET. LOWS TONIGHT
LOOK A BIT MILDER THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.

THURSDAY THE TROUGH DIGS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND LINGERS OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON AND EVENING JET
SUPPORT OVER A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS NORTH OF I-70. A FEW THOSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. STORM INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET BUT SOME STORMS MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

A QUICK AND DRAMATIC TRANSITION FROM COOL TO WARM IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RUNNING BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF MAY BUT
WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY.
THE CULPRIT IS A BUILDING RIDGE FROM THE SW THAT WILL WORK
OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY.

FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ALONG THE
EASTERN CWA. FRIDAY NIGHT A FRONT RANGE COOL FRONT WILL BACK UP
AGAINST THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND MAY KEEP SHOWERS GOING
OVERNIGHT IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SAN JUANS AND THE PAGOSA
SPRINGS AREA. MOISTURE AND STORM COVERAGE ERODE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT LIMIT INSTABILITY.

MOUNTAIN SNOW PACK WILL GO THROUGH A PERIOD OF STRONG MELTING
BEGINNING SATURDAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS STAYING ABOVE
FREEZING. EXPECT A RISE IN STREAM AND RIVER LEVELS INTO NEXT WEEK.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE IS FLATTENED AS THE NEXT PACIFIC
TROUGH WORKS THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE. MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED UNTIL
PERHAPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS RETURNING TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1049 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

A SHORT BREAK IN THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS MORNING
IS LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST TERMINALS. HOWEVER
SOME CLOUD COVER HUGGING THE DIVIDE PEAKS ARE LEADING TO AREAS OF
TERRAIN OBSCURATION. AFTERNOON HEATING AND PLENTY OF REMAINING
MOISTURE WILL AGAIN LEAD TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. EXACT TIMING IS DIFFICULT BUT 27/20Z TO
28/04Z WILL BE THE PERIOD OF THE MOST ACTIVITY. THE MAIN THREATS
WILL BE GUSTY...ERRATIC WINDS AND LIGHTNING. FLIGHT CRITERIA COULD
BE TEMPORARILY DECREASED BY SHOWERS PASSING OVER THE FLIGHT
TERMINALS. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN UTAH AND COLORADO
OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE CLEARING IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...15/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...TGJT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
402 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-281015-
LOWER YAMPA RIVER BASIN-CENTRAL YAMPA RIVER BASIN-
ROAN AND TAVAPUTS PLATEAUS-ELKHEAD AND PARK MOUNTAINS-
UPPER YAMPA RIVER BASIN-GRAND VALLEY-DEBEQUE TO SILT CORRIDOR-
CENTRAL COLORADO RIVER BASIN-GRAND AND BATTLEMENT MESAS-
GORE AND ELK MOUNTAINS/CENTRAL MOUNTAIN VALLEYS-
CENTRAL GUNNISON AND UNCOMPAHGRE RIVER BASIN-
WEST ELK AND SAWATCH MOUNTAINS-FLATTOPS-
UPPER GUNNISON RIVER VALLEY-UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU AND DALLAS DIVIDE-
NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-
PARADOX VALLEY/LOWER DOLORES RIVER-
FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER-ANIMAS RIVER BASIN-
SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN-SOUTHEAST UTAH-EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN UINTA BASIN-TAVAPUTS PLATEAU-ARCHES/GRAND FLAT-
LA SAL AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS-CANYONLANDS/NATURAL BRIDGES-
402 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT. PERIOD OF RAIN...LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL
AND LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY THE THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE LOWER DESERT VALLEYS WILL BE DRIER
WITH WARMER CONDITIONS...BUT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER NORTHEAST
UTAH...THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN COLORADO AND THE WEST-CENTRAL
COLORADO VALLEYS.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA...EXCEPT THAT ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS ALONG AND
NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

CJC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
312 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

UTZ024-025-272145-
TAVAPUTS PLATEAU UT-EASTERN UINTA BASIN UT-
312 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL UINTAH COUNTY UNTIL 345
PM MDT...

AT 308 PM MDT...A MOBILE SKYWARN STORM SPOTTER REPORTED A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 26 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FORT DUCHESNE...MOVING EAST AT 20
MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM...ALONG
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...PEA-SIZED HAIL...AND OCCASIONAL CLOUD-TO-
GROUND LIGHTNING.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF CENTRAL UINTAH
COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
SMALL STREAM FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3990 10963 4004 10961 4004 10935 3988 10934
TIME...MOT...LOC 2108Z 266DEG 16KT 3997 10956

JRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
406 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0405 PM     HAIL             3 NNE RIDGWAY           38.20N 107.74W
05/27/2015  E0.25 INCH       OURAY              CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND PEA SIZE HAIL AS STORM MOVED
            THROUGH

&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1500776

MALEKSA

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>