Alert archive / Colorado / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2015

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 43, NWS Grand Junction, CO

October 19, 2015Archuleta County, La Plata County, Colorado

NWS Grand Junction, CO issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Oct 19, 2015, 4:13 PM MDT for Archuleta County, La Plata County, Colorado. It was in force for 47 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Oct 19, 2015, 4:13 PM MDT (22:13 UTC)
Expired: Oct 19, 2015, 5:00 PM MDT
In force: 47 min
Issued by: NWS Grand Junction, CO
Area: Storm-based polygon

Counties Archuleta County, CO, La Plata County, CO

The radar

The Grand Junction radar (KGJX), 213 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:14 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Albuquerq/Krtlnd, NM (KABQ), launched 12:00Z, 10.2 hours before the alert went out and 255 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 29 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -140 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1292 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 26 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 93 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 150 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: -0.0
Supercell composite: -0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Junction, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Oct 19, 4:05 PM MDT, 8 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 19, 4:05 PM MDT, 8 minutes before

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Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 19, 4:35 AM MDT, 11 hours 38 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
435 AM MDT MON OCT 19 2015

COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-201200-
LOWER YAMPA RIVER BASIN-CENTRAL YAMPA RIVER BASIN-
ROAN AND TAVAPUTS PLATEAUS-ELKHEAD AND PARK MOUNTAINS-
UPPER YAMPA RIVER BASIN-GRAND VALLEY-DEBEQUE TO SILT CORRIDOR-
CENTRAL COLORADO RIVER BASIN-GRAND AND BATTLEMENT MESAS-
GORE AND ELK MOUNTAINS/CENTRAL MOUNTAIN VALLEYS-
CENTRAL GUNNISON AND UNCOMPAHGRE RIVER BASIN-
WEST ELK AND SAWATCH MOUNTAINS-FLATTOPS-
UPPER GUNNISON RIVER VALLEY-UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU AND DALLAS DIVIDE-
NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-
PARADOX VALLEY/LOWER DOLORES RIVER-
FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER-ANIMAS RIVER BASIN-
SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN-SOUTHEAST UTAH-EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN UINTA BASIN-TAVAPUTS PLATEAU-ARCHES/GRAND FLAT-
LA SAL AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS-CANYONLANDS/NATURAL BRIDGES-
435 AM MDT MON OCT 19 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHEAST UTAH AND THE VALLEYS OF
SOUTHWEST COLORADO THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EAST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST UTAH AND WEST CENTRAL COLORADO TODAY. GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS TO NEAR 58 MPH AND HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAIN IS
ALSO EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER SOUTHEAST UTAH AND THE LOWER VALLEYS OF
SOUTHWEST COLORADO. THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL VARY BETWEEN 9500 AND 12000 FEET
WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Oct 19, 3:48 PM MDT, 25 minutes before

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Local storm report, Oct 19, 4:07 PM MDT, 6 minutes before

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The office that day

Everything else NWS Grand Junction, CO issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 19, 3:38 AM MDT	Areal Flood Advisory	GJT	Dolores, Montezuma	6 hr
Oct 19, 3:46 AM MDT	Flash Flood Watch	GJT	Dolores, La Plata, Mesa, Montezuma, Montrose, San Miguel	41 hr
Oct 19, 3:48 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	GJT	La Plata	42 min
Oct 19, 1:39 AM MDT	Special Weather Statement	GJT	Grand	51 min
Oct 19, 3:36 AM MDT	Areal Flood Advisory	GJT	Grand, San Juan	3 hr
Oct 19, 8:33 AM MDT	Areal Flood Advisory	GJT	Grand	6 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Colorado, 2015 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.