Severe Thunderstorm Warning 37, NWS Grand Junction, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
345 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015

PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EARLIER TODAY PROVIDED ADDED ENERGY TO THE
AFTERNOON CYCLE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ALREADY SOME STRONG STORMS WITH
HALF INCH HAIL...AND A FUNNEL CLOUD IN MONTICELLO...HAVE BEEN
REPORTED. THE FLOW HAS BECOME MORE WESTERLY TODAY BRINGING SOME
DRYING. HOWEVER FEEL THIS IS ALSO ADDING TO THE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. STORMS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING WITH THE PEAK
EXPECTED AROUND 7-8ISH PM MDT. AS THE DIURNAL CYCLE WINDS DOWN
LATER THIS EVENING...DO NOT EXPECT MANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
TO LINGER OVERNIGHT.

LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY DRIER AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BE
FELT BETTER ON THURSDAY AS DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO
THE 30S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS...WITH LESS OF A
CHANGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD. THEREFORE EXPECT THU TO BE A
'DOWN-DAY' CONVECTION-WISE. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO FEEL THE
EFFECTS OF MORE SUN AND WILL APPROACH...BUT STILL STAY A COUPLE
DEGREES SHY OF...NORMAL HIGHS FOR MID JULY. THE AIR MASS
CONTINUES TO DRY OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015

FRIDAY WILL REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE BEFORE MOISTURE QUICKLY
INCREASES FRI NIGHT AND ON SAT AS THE NEXT MONSOONAL SURGE MOVES
NORTH. THIS HAPPENS AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A
WESTERN TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN. SO LOOK FOR
WETTER CONDITIONS FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND. THE WESTERN TROUGH
WILL SUPPRESS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CWA AS LOW
PRESSURE ENERGY PASSES TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL BRING DRIER AIR
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE 12Z GFS NOW SHOWS THIS DRYING WELL
UNDERWAY BY SUN AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION.
PREVIOUS RUNS ARE SLOWER WITH THE DRYING...WAITING UNTIL MON.
THEREFORE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BY MIDWEEK MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MORE TYPICAL MONSOONAL
PATTERN WILL REDEVELOP FOR AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING...DROPPING OFF AFTER 02-03Z. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS...SMALL
HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH THESE STORMS.
HOWEVER AN ISOLATED STORM MAY BECOME STRONGER WITH HALF INCH HAIL
POSSIBLE. BRIEF ILS CIGS MAY OCCUR AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH...ALONG
WITH LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. FEW STORMS WILL LINGER BEYOND
06Z. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND ON THURSDAY.
THEREFORE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE MOST
PLENTIFUL.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...EH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
518 AM MDT WED JUL 15 2015

COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-161200-
LOWER YAMPA RIVER BASIN-CENTRAL YAMPA RIVER BASIN-
ROAN AND TAVAPUTS PLATEAUS-ELKHEAD AND PARK MOUNTAINS-
UPPER YAMPA RIVER BASIN-GRAND VALLEY-DEBEQUE TO SILT CORRIDOR-
CENTRAL COLORADO RIVER BASIN-GRAND AND BATTLEMENT MESAS-
GORE AND ELK MOUNTAINS/CENTRAL MOUNTAIN VALLEYS-
CENTRAL GUNNISON AND UNCOMPAHGRE RIVER BASIN-
WEST ELK AND SAWATCH MOUNTAINS-FLATTOPS-
UPPER GUNNISON RIVER VALLEY-UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU AND DALLAS DIVIDE-
NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-
PARADOX VALLEY/LOWER DOLORES RIVER-
FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER-ANIMAS RIVER BASIN-
SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN-SOUTHEAST UTAH-EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN UINTA BASIN-TAVAPUTS PLATEAU-ARCHES/GRAND FLAT-
LA SAL AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS-CANYONLANDS/NATURAL BRIDGES-
518 AM MDT WED JUL 15 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL GENERATE MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS...SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING...BUT THE
COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRYING ARRIVES DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK RESULTING IN DECREASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A SIGNIFICANT UPTICK IN MONSOON
MOISTURE COULD BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS
PORTENDS A THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING DUE TO HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
229 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0210 PM     HAIL             5 ESE MONTICELLO        37.85N 109.25W
07/15/2015  E0.38 INCH       SAN JUAN           UT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            THIS STORM ALSO PRODUCED A BRIEF FUNNEL CLOUD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1500926

DC

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
238 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015

UTZ024-152100-
EASTERN UINTA BASIN UT-
238 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL UINTAH COUNTY UNTIL
300 PM MDT...

AT 238 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 15
MILES SOUTHEAST OF MYTON...OR 16 MILES SOUTH OF FORT DUCHESNE...
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL UINTAH
COUNTY.

LAT...LON 4021 10962 3997 10954 3991 10997 4011 10997
TIME...MOT...LOC 2038Z 256DEG 21KT 4005 10984

JAM

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
313 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015

COZ002-003-013-152145-
ROAN AND TAVAPUTS PLATEAUS CO-FLATTOPS CO-
CENTRAL YAMPA RIVER BASIN CO-
313 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL RIO BLANCO COUNTY UNTIL
345 PM MDT...

AT 313 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 15
MILES SOUTHWEST OF MEEKER...OR 50 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CRAIG...MOVING
EAST AT 15 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MEEKER.

LAT...LON 3983 10823 4001 10828 4012 10787 3987 10780
TIME...MOT...LOC 2113Z 257DEG 15KT 3994 10814

JAM