Severe Thunderstorm Warning 18, NWS Grand Junction, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
458 PM MDT SAT JUN 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT SAT JUN 6 2015

REMNANT MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM ANDRES HAS MOVED UP FROM THE
SOUTH AHEAD OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS AIR
MASS IS RELATIVELY UNSTABLE AND HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH HAVE FAVORED THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EFFICIENT
RAINERS DUE TO THE TROPICAL ORIGIN...AND A FEW OF THE STRONGER
STORMS HAVE PRODUCED SMALL HAIL. HOWEVER A MORE VIGOROUS AREA OF
STORMS HAS MOVED INTO THE LAKE POWELL AREA. THESE STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED AS A DRY SLOT PUSHED INTO THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS OVER
THE 4-CORNERS...AND WHERE THERE WAS SOME CLEARING EARLIER IN THE
DAY. EXPECT THAT THIS ENHANCED AREA WILL MOVE INTO OUR FORECAST
AREA SHORTLY...WITH A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTING INTO
THE EVENING. THE AREA OF MOST CONCERN WILL BE OVER SOUTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL UT...WHERE THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL
TO AROUND AN INCH OR MORE IN DIAMETER...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS. RAINFALL OVER OTHER AREAS IS EXPECTED TO BE
MORE MODERATE AND STEADY...BUT STILL SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. BY MIDNIGHT CONVECTION WILL HAVE
DIMINISHED. HOWEVER SOME MOSTLY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST OVERNIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...WITH SHOWERS LINGERING LONGEST OVER THE HIGHER
COLORADO MOUNTAINS. SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

THE UPPER LOW WILL WORK ACROSS UTAH TONIGHT AND SHEAR ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY...WITH SOME ENERGY SLITTING OFF
TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE UPPER FLOW SHIFTS FROM A MOIST SSW FLOW TO A
DRIER...BUT NOT DRY...WSW FLOW. THE THREAT OF HEAVY SHOWERS WILL
MOSTLY END...WITH SCATTERED STORMS FAVORING THE NORTH IN THE
DEFORMATION ZONE. SHOWERS WILL WIND DOWN SUNDAY EVENING...
LINGERING LONGEST OVER THE NORTHERN DIVIDE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WARMER ON SUNDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT S AT JUN 6 2015

ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE RIDGE THAT PINCHED OFF THE CUTOFF LOW
WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER THE REGION BRINGING DRY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS. HURRICANE BLANCA WILL MOVE NW AND PARALLEL THE
WESTERN COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA.

THE LOW OFF THE WEST COAST WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON WED. THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL PICK UP THE REMNANTS OF
BLANCA...WHICH IS PROJECTED TO TRACK OVER EASTERN UT AND WESTERN
CO AS EARLY AS WED AFTERNOON. THEREFORE WET CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
TO THE FORECAST AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ADDITIONAL ENERGY
AND MOISTURE WILL THEN KEEP THE AREA UNSETTLED INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 455 PM MDT SAT JUN 6 2015

SOUTH OF I70 OR SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KCNY TO KEGE:
UNTIL 03Z...SCT -TSRA/-SHRA WITH ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED WITH ASSOCIATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE TURBULENCE. LOCAL
MVFR VIS/CIGS CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR WITH STRONG TSRA...BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS WITH HEAVY RAINERS AND POSSIBLE HAIL SHAFTS. STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH G40-50KTS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SE
UTAH DESERTS AND SW COLORADO.
03Z TO 06Z...ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA MAY CAUSE BRIEF MVFR CIGS.
AFTER 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE.
AFT 18Z SUNDAY ISOLATED -TSRA MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.

NORTH OF I70: VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE WITH ISOLATED
-SHRA/-TSRA UNTIL 03Z THIS EVENING...AND FORMING AGAIN SUNDAY AFT
18Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT SAT JUN 6 2015

DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAIN...AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS EVENING...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SOME LOCATIONS WITHIN THIS WATCH AREA HAVE
RECEIVED AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN IN THE PAST 24-36 HOURS. IN
ADDITION...CREEKS AND STREAMS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE ALREADY BEEN
RUNNING HIGH DUE TO SNOW MELTING IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.
THEREFORE FLOW LEVELS IN SOME AREA WATERWAYS MAY APPROACH OR EVEN
EXCEED BANKFULL. SOME RIVERS RUNNING HIGH INCLUDE THE EAGLE RIVER
IN SOUTHEASTERN EAGLE COUNTY...THE ROARING FORK BETWEEN ASPEN AND
GLENWOOD SPRINGS...AND THE COLORADO RIVER FROM THE EAGLE/GRAND
COUNTY LINE TO THE COLORADO/UTAH BORDER. ALSO THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE WEST SALT CREEK LANDSLIDE CONTINUES IN MESA COUNTY.
DUE TO THE RECENT AND CONTINUING RAINFALL...MINOR BACK COUNTRY
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ALSO UNIMPROVED
ROADS MAY ALREADY BE...OR MAY BECOME IMPASSIBLE.

CAUTION IS ADVISED WHEN WALKING OR RECREATING NEAR RIVERS OR
STREAMS AS WATER IS RUNNING FAST AND HIGH...AND SOME RIVER BANKS
MAY BECOME UNSTABLE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ003-006-011-
     012-014-017>023.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR COZ007-009.

UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ022-025-
     027>029.

&&

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...PF
HYDROLOGY...EH+JOE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
731 AM MDT SAT JUN 6 2015

COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-071345-
LOWER YAMPA RIVER BASIN-CENTRAL YAMPA RIVER BASIN-
ROAN AND TAVAPUTS PLATEAUS-ELKHEAD AND PARK MOUNTAINS-
UPPER YAMPA RIVER BASIN-GRAND VALLEY-DEBEQUE TO SILT CORRIDOR-
CENTRAL COLORADO RIVER BASIN-GRAND AND BATTLEMENT MESAS-
GORE AND ELK MOUNTAINS/CENTRAL MOUNTAIN VALLEYS-
CENTRAL GUNNISON AND UNCOMPAHGRE RIVER BASIN-
WEST ELK AND SAWATCH MOUNTAINS-FLATTOPS-
UPPER GUNNISON RIVER VALLEY-UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU AND DALLAS DIVIDE-
NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-
PARADOX VALLEY/LOWER DOLORES RIVER-
FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER-ANIMAS RIVER BASIN-
SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN-SOUTHEAST UTAH-EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN UINTA BASIN-TAVAPUTS PLATEAU-ARCHES/GRAND FLAT-
LA SAL AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS-CANYONLANDS/NATURAL BRIDGES-
731 AM MDT SAT JUN 6 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH A THREAT OF HAIL...STRONG
WINDS...AND A POSSIBLE FUNNEL CLOUD OR TORNADO. WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF
EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO TODAY AND TONIGHT. HEAVY RAIN
MAY CAUSE SMALL STREAMS AND WASHES TO RISE RAPIDLY...AND DIRT OR
UNIMPROVED ROADS IN RURAL AREAS MAY BECOME IMPASSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY.

DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN ANOTHER STORM WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST SALT CREEK
LANDSLIDE IN NORTH CENTRAL MESA COUNTY UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON...
AS PEOPLE IN LOW LYING AREAS BELOW THE LANDSLIDE SHOULD STAY
ALERT TO CHANGING CONDITIONS.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST UTAH
AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING OVER EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO.

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