Special Weather Statement, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
721 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2015

NOT SURE THE CHANGE WAS NECESSARILY "WORTH IT" AT THIS STAGE IN
THE GAME...BUT FELT STRONGLY ENOUGH IN THE MAIN THREAT FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER NIGHTFALL WITHIN
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE EXISTING FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA
(ESPECIALLY THE TRI-CITIES PORTION)...THAT HAVE DELAYED THE "START
TIME" OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7PM TO 10PM. EVEN BY 10
PM...ITS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT MUCH OF THE CWA COULD STILL BE RAIN-
FREE...ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY SHOULD AT LEAST BE ON THE INCREASE IN OUR
WEST. RECAPPING...THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD GET THROUGH THE
PRE-NIGHTFALL HOURS DRY EXCEPT FOR THE LIMITED...ONGOING WEAK
CONVECTION THAT CONTINUES FESTERING IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF
OUR NEB ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2015

FOCUS WILL BE ON THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT...AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE STORMS. SOME DISCUSSION WILL BE MADE ON
TEMPERATURES...MAINLY FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHEN WE COULD SEE HEAT
INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 100-105 FOR SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA.

MODELS ARE IN EXTREMELY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR RAINFALL POTENTIAL
TONIGHT...AND THEY HAVE BEEN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WHICH IS VERY
NICE FOR A CHANGE. WE WILL BE UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL TRANSITION AROUND A
RIDGE WHICH OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CONUS. THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM
WILL PASS RIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. DEEP LAYER LIFT FROM 1000 MB
TO 500 MB IS STRONG AND SHOULD PROMOTE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET NOSES
INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MAX
OUT AROUND 2.00 TO 2.25 INCHES TONIGHT WHICH IS AT OR GREATER THAN 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO IMPRESSIVE RANGING BETWEEN 5 AND 8 DEGREES
CELSIUS BETWEEN 925 MB AND 700 MB. ALL THINGS ARE POINTING TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH SHOULD
RESULTING IN MOST AREAS RECEIVING HEAVY RAINFALL BETWEEN 1 AND 2
INCHES. PERHAPS MORE IN SOME MORE ISOLATED AREAS. THAT BEING
SAID...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. AS FOR THE SEVERE THREAT...THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE WIND
AND HAIL. DEEP LAYER SHEAR (0-6 KM) VALUES RANGE FROM ABOUT 30 TO 55
KNOTS...AND 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES RANGE BETWEEN 150 TO 300
M^2/S^2...SO ROTATING UPDRAFTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
HOWEVER...STORMS SHOULD NOT BE DISCRETE AND MORE CLUSTERED/LINEAR IN
NATURE...SO THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED TODAY/TONIGHT. THAT
BEING SAID...THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY FOR A TORNADO...BUT
CHANCES ARE STORMS WILL NOT BE SURFACED BASED AND MORE ELEVATED.
OVERALL...TORNADO THREAT IS SMALL...AND AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WIND
AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO UPPER
90S FLIRTING WITH 100 DEGREES. DEPENDING ON EXACTLY HOW MUCH
MOISTURE WE GET TONIGHT DEWPOINTS COULD INCREASE FOR TOMORROW. AS OF
NOW...WE HAVE HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING BETWEEN ABOUT 98 AND 104 FOR
SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM LOGAN KANSAS TO HEBRON NEBRASKA. STAY TUNED TO SEE IF
TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINTS CHANGE AT ALL AFTER TONIGHT RAINFALL. WE
COULD SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES WITHIN ADVISORY CRITERIA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2015

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE WILL EXIST OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD AT 00Z
SUNDAY...WITH QUASI-ZONAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA.
THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS
BEGINNING LATE MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THE PASSAGE OF MULTIPLE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
PERTURBATIONS WITHIN THE MEAN QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL BRING A CHANCE
FOR ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS
VARIOUS PORTIONS OF THE CWA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOW POPS...GENERALLY
IN THE 20-30% RANGE...EXIST IN THE FORECAST FOR VARIOUS PORTIONS OF
THE CWA SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A RESULT. TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...LITTLE IF ANY SYNOPTIC-SCALE OMEGA IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. GIVEN THIS...THERE ALSO SEEMS TO BE LITTLE IF ANY
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA TUESDAY AND BEYOND.
THAT SAID...THERE MAY BE AN EXCEPTION ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION MAKES AN ATTEMPT TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. GIVEN THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH ~20%
POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERN CWA BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE IN THE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS SHOULD PROMOTE
SIMILAR TEMPERATURE READINGS FROM DAY TO DAY SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
PERHAPS STARTING TUESDAY...BUT MORE SO WEDNESDAY AND
BEYOND...THERMAL ADVECTION THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO
PROMOTE A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 90S FOR MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWA BY LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 721 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2015

WILL STATE UP FRONT THAT ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN
THUNDERSTORM-FREE AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THESE FIRST
3-4 HOURS THIS EVENING...ANYTHING AFTER THAT IS "FAIR GAME"
REGARDING THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...HEAVY RAINFALL
AND SUB-VFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY. INSTEAD OF TRYING TO GET
OVERLY-DETAILED WITH THUNDERSTORM TIMING THAT IS STILL SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN...WILL CONTINUE TO BROAD-BRUSH THE ENTIRE LATE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A GENERIC VICINITY THUNDERSTORM (VCTS)
MENTION...AND DEFER TO LATER TAF AMENDMENTS/ISSUANCES TO INSERT
TEMPO AND/OR PREVAILING GROUPS WITH MORE TIMING CONFIDENCE. THERE
IS A GOOD BET HOWEVER THAT BOTH TERMINALS WILL REALIZE A PERIOD OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT SOME POINT TONIGHT...POTENTIALLY
FEATURING ERRATIC/GUSTY WINDS AS WELL.

GETTING INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD SATURDAY
DAYTIME...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERLY HIGH IN CEILING
TRENDS...FELT THERE IS ENOUGH OF A CHANCE OF LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPING BEHIND THE DEPARTING CONVECTION THAT HAVE INTRODUCED AN
MVFR CEILING FOR THE MORNING HOURS. COULD SEE SOME REDUCED
VISIBILITY AS WELL...BUT FOR NOW WILL ONLY GO WITH LOW-END VFR. BY
THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON HOURS ANTICIPATE A RETURN TO VFR CEILING
AND HAVE LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS...AS
THOSE CHANCES SHOULD MAINLY FOCUS EAST OF THE TERMINALS.

AS FOR SURFACE WINDS...OBVIOUSLY THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW COULD
GREATLY MODERATE THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS...BUT THE
VERY GENERAL EXPECTATION NOT ACCOUNTING FOR THUNDERSTORM
INFLUENCES IS THAT A GENERALLY EAST-SOUTHEAST BREEZE TONIGHT WILL
BECOME SOMEWHAT VARIABLE IF NOT NORTHERLY/WESTERLY DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD BEHIND A PASSING BOUNDARY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR NEZ039-040-046-047-
     060>062-072>075-082>085.

KS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...GUERRERO
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
616 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2015

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
081200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
616 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
LIKELY ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA...GENERALLY MOVING IN FROM WEST TO
EAST...BUT WITH SOME ACTIVITY ALSO FORMING DIRECTLY OVER THE LOCAL
AREA. SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN COUNTIES
WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR...WITH QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. HEAVY RAINFALL
IS ALSO LIKELY. ALTHOUGH ALMOST ANY LOCATION IS PRONE TO HEAVY
RAIN TONIGHT...THE AREA MOST FAVORED TO OBSERVE HEAVY RAIN IS
GENERALLY NORTH OF THE NEBRASKA-KANSAS STATE LINE AND ALONG AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR...WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT. PLEASE SEE THE FLASH FLOOD PRODUCT FOR MORE DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN ROUGHLY 99 AND 104 DEGREES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM LOGAN KANSAS...TO HEBRON NEBRASKA.

LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXIST IN THE FORECAST FOR VARIOUS
PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE NEEDED
TONIGHT...AND ANY REPORTS OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AT LEAST 2 INCHES
WOULD BE APPRECIATED.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

PFANNKUCH/GUERRERO/BRYANT

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