Special Weather Statement, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
237 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...A FEW SEVERE TSTMS POSSIBLE THRU LATE THIS EVE WITH VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...

ALOFT: THE UPR-LVL FLOW WAS CHARACTERIZED BY TROFS OVER THE ERN
USA AND WRN USA...WITH A RIDGE MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND OVER
THE PLAINS. THE FLOW WILL BE PROGRESSIVE THRU TOMORROW WITH
GENERAL DEAMPLIFICATION. WV IMAGERY SHOWED A LOW OVER WY/CO WITH
A TROF EXTENDING SE INTO KS. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE INTO THE FCST
AREA TONIGHT AND E OF THE REGION TOMORROW. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL
FOLLOW TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

SURFACE: THE POLAR FRONT WAS QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE OH AND
MID MS RIVER VALLEYS...ACROSS NRN KS AND THEN NW BANKED UP AGAINST
THE ROCKIES. THIS FRONT WILL PROBABLY SINK S INTO NRN OK...
PROBABLY SHOVED S BY TSTM OUTFLOWS.

SVR TSTM WATCH 470 IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW FRINGE OF THE FCST
AREA UNTIL 9 PM.

WITH THE UPR TROF MOVING THRU...TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU THE
NIGHT...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO PART OF TOMORROW MORNING.

AM VERY CONCERNED ABOUT EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL.

RAINFALL: CONTEMPLATED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALONG AND S OF HWY 6...
INCLUDING N-CNTRL KS. SINGLE CELL STORM MOVEMENTS HAVE BEEN VERY
SLOW TODAY...AND ARE ONLY FCST TO BE 5-15 KTS FROM N-S ACROSS THE
FCST AREA TONIGHT.

THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/FRONT THAT LIES ACROSS
NRN KS. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING PERSISTENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND ONCE
THE MODEST LOW-LVL JET FORMS...IT WILL FURTHER MAINTAIN/ENHANCE
LIFT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.

WE WILL CONT TO MONITOR TRENDS AND MAY STILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH BEFORE THIS AFTERNOON IS OVER. WE HAVE ALREADY ISSUED A
WARNING FOR SE PHILLIPS COUNTY.

WHILE THE FCST AREA HAS NOT SEEN MUCH RAIN OVER THE LAST WEEK...
IF PERSISTENT/REPEATED TSTM ACTIVITY OCCURS...LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TOMORROW: ANY LEFTOVER RAIN SHOULD BE E OF THE FCST AREA BY MIDDAY
AT THE LATEST.

MULTI-MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS COULD
LINGER THRU MUCH OF THE DAY...PUTTING A CAP ON TEMPS. WE HAVE
INDICATED SOME IMPROVEMENT W AND S OF THE TRI-CITIES IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS COULD BE HELD IN THE 70S N AND E OF THE TRI-
CITIES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE MID TERM PERIOD FOCUSES ON A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TRUDGES
ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THIS LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD...THE
PLAINS REMAIN SITUATED IN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ABOVE THE RIDGE AND
THUS REAP THE BENEFITS OF SEVERAL PASSING DISTURBANCES. THIS WILL
RESULT IN NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR OFF AND ON PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...AS THE RIDGE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW
AMPLIFIED...THE PLAINS REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF 850 MB
TEMPERATURES. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY MILD FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR IN THE 80S TO EVEN LOW 90S IN PORTIONS OF NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. HOWEVER...WARM TEMPERATURES ARE NOT THAT FAR AWAY
AND MAY EVEN NOSE THEIR WAY IN A DAY OR TWO AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
RIDES NORTH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.

BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...MODELS ARE HINTING AT A
POSSIBLE PATTERN CHANGE AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD.
RIDGING LOOKS TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FRONT
RANGE WHICH WILL BRING BACK OUR HOT SUMMER TEMPERATURES AND LIKELY
DECREASE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THAT IS SEVERAL DAYS
AWAY AND MODELS HAVE BEEN KNOWN TO CHANGE DRAMATICALLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z WED AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THIS AFTERNOON: VFR MULTI-LAYERED CLOUD COVER. THE PROBABILITY OF
IFR TSTMS AFFECTING THE TERMINALS INCREASES AFTER 21Z. E WINDS
GENERALLY 10-15 KTS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

TONIGHT: DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT TSTMS...BUT THE GREATEST
PROBABILITY APPEARS TO BE UNTIL 05Z. HOWEVER...CAN'T RULE OUT
ADDITIONAL TSTMS AFTER 05Z. MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR STRATUS MAY THEN
DEVELOP...AS INDICATED BY GFS MOS AND GFS LAMP GUIDANCE. SE WINDS
UNDER 10 KTS EXCEPT IN/NEAR TSTMS. CONFIDENCE: LOW

WED THRU 18Z: THE DAY PROBABLY BEGINS WITH IFR OR MVFR STRATUS...
AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT FOG IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING TSTMS.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR SHOULD OCCUR BY 15Z. ESE WINDS UNDER
10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: LOW

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
114 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
051815-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
114 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE BEFORE
MIDNIGHT...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM BROKEN BOW TO KEARNEY TO
HEBRON NEBRASKA. HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. IN ADDITION...
SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...POSSIBLY
EXCEEDING 3 INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS...AND THIS COULD LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. AT THIS TIME TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE
FORECAST TO PIN DOWN SPECIFICS IN REGARD TO ANY SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

HALBLAUB

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
421 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

NEZ061-074-084-042200-
FRANKLIN NE-KEARNEY NE-BUFFALO NE-
421 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR KEARNEY...SOUTHEASTERN BUFFALO
AND NORTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

AT 421 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR ODESSA TO NEAR
HUNTLEY...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  KEARNEY AND WILCOX AROUND 435 PM CDT.
  HILDRETH AROUND 445 PM CDT.
  UPLAND AROUND 455 PM CDT.
  CAMPBELL AND HEARTWELL AROUND 500 PM CDT.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 268 AND 287.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4071 9872 4023 9873 4023 9918 4066 9918
      4066 9919 4071 9919
TIME...MOT...LOC 2121Z 270DEG 35KT 4068 9928 4026 9933

HALBLAUB