Severe Thunderstorm Warning 27, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
247 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THERE IS
SOME STRATOCUMULUS AND GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT. ALL
OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE TIMING AROUND 4 OR 5 PM THIS
AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN EXPECTED AND HAVE
MOVED THUNDERSTORMS A LITTLE FURTHER WEST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THEN
AS THE FRONT MOVES TO THE EAST...KEPT THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST
DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST A LITTLE
LATER. MUCAPE OF 1500 TO 1600 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40
KNOTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

THE CAPE MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST FAIRLY EARLY AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE ENDING FROM WEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
BEHIND THE THUNDERSTORMS THE SKIES SHOULD START TO CLEAR AND WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TONIGHT AS
COLD ADVECTION TAKES PLACE LATE TONIGHT.

A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES
AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH READINGS
ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WEAK QUASI-ZONAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE
NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD
AT 00Z TUESDAY. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
PROMOTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LOW IS
THEN EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE REST OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD PROMOTE DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND SUCH HAS
BEEN PRESENTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. TUESDAY NIGHT AND
BEYOND...UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LOW MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. AS A RESULT...GUIDANCE FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS
AND EC BOTH SUGGEST PERIODIC CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS
VARIOUS PORTIONS OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD. THIS PRESENTS A
DIFFICULT/CHALLENGING FORECAST AS IT APPEARS PROBABLE THAT SOMEBODY
ACROSS THE CWA IS GOING TO OBSERVE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AT SOME
POINT BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGH AND SATURDAY...BUT IT IS VERY DIFFICULT
TO SAY PRECISELY WHO AND WHERE. GIVEN THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH 20-30%%
POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...AND LEFT THE SUPERBLEND SOLUTION OF 20-60% POPS ACROSS
VARIOUS PORTIONS OF THE CWA UNCHANGED FOR THE MOST PART FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND. THANKFULLY...THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC
BOTH SUGGEST POTENTIAL ENERGY WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE DURING THE
LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD...SO ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE PERIODIC WEAK
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE PERIOD...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME.

FINALLY...GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A MUCH DRIER
BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS WILL PROMOTE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AT OR
BELOW 25% ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY. THESE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES...ALONG WITH A STRONG BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD...WILL LIKELY
PROMOTE NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND COULD PROMOTE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IF THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
FALL OFF MUCH MORE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. GIVEN THIS...WILL
CONTINUE MENTIONING NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN THE HWO FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015

THE COLD FRONT IS A BIT SLOWER TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON BUT WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS
WELL. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND BE LIGHT AND BECOME
MORE VARIABLE AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...JCB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
246 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
131200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
246 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING PRIMARILY BETWEEN 4 PM AND 10 PM...MAINLY EAST OF A LINE
FROM ORD TO HOLDREGE TO PHILLIPSBURG. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL BE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A STRONG SOUTH WIND...WORKING IN
CONCERT WITH LOW VALUES OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY...WILL PROMOTE NEAR-
CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...GENERALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 6 AND
INCLUDING NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT CURRENTLY
EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED IN SOME AREAS AFTER 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
557 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015

NEZ041-122345-
NANCE NE-
557 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN NANCE COUNTY UNTIL 645 PM
CDT...

AT 557 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
FULLERTON...OR 31 MILES WEST OF COLUMBUS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30
MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FULLERTON...GENOA AND BELGRADE.

LAT...LON 4142 9770 4131 9797 4146 9810 4151 9802
      4151 9789 4153 9788 4153 9771
TIME...MOT...LOC 2257Z 236DEG 26KT 4143 9796

ROSSI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
606 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     HAIL             6 N CLARKS              41.30N 97.84W
04/12/2015  M0.50 INCH       MERRICK            NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA TO DIME SIZED HAIL

&&

PBEDA

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