Severe Thunderstorm Warning 264, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
329 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015

...SCATTERED TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON-EVE PRIMARILY ALONG AND S OF
I-80 AND SOME COULD BE SVR WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015

THIS WILL SERVE AS THE PRIMARY AFD FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPDATED
FCST THRU TOMORROW IS ALREADY POSTED IN ANTICIPATION OF TSTMS
WHICH ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING.

ALOFT: A BROAD TROF ENCOMPASSED THE NRN USA FROM THE NRN PLAINS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A SUBTROPICAL HIGH WAS OVER NV WITH A RIDGE
OVER THE WRN USA. AMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR THRU TOMORROW WITH THE
FLOW OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS SHIFTING FROM WNW TO NNW.

SURFACE: A STRONG COOL FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES WSW
INTO SRN NEB WITH ITS WRN EDGE BANKED UP AGAINST THE ROCKIES. THIS
FRONT WILL STRENGTHEN AND SURGE S THRU THIS EVE...PROVIDING THE
FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT. WHILE THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE FRONT
WILL BE MUDDIED BY TSTM ACTIVITY...IT SHOULD WILL BE S OF THE FCST
AREA BY MIDNIGHT ON ITS WAY DEEP INTO THE SRN PLAINS TOMORROW.
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL SINK INTO THE NRN PLAINS TONIGHT AND
GRADUALLY OVERTAKE THE FCST AREA.

NOW: WE ARE WATCHING CU FIELDS DEVELOP/EXPAND ON SATELLITE. WE
WILL CONT MONITORING FOR ADDITIONAL INITIATION.

WE WILL BE WARNING FOR 50 DBZ ABOVE 30K AND 60 DBZ ABOVE 21K FT.

BE SURE TO FOLLOW SPC OUTLOOKS/MD'S AS WELL AS WATCHES/STATEMENTS
AND WARNINGS FROM THIS OFFICE.

SKYWARN: PREPARE FOR ACTIVATION AFTER 3 PM FROM I-80 SOUTH.

TONIGHT: ANY EVENING TSTM ACTIVITY WILL EXIT S AND E OF THE FCST
AREA. A COOL NIGHT FOR MOST OF S-CNTRL NEB AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE
MID-UPR 40S.

FRI: M/SUNNY AND COOL. HIGH TEMPS N AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES WILL
NOT MAKE 70F.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015

OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THIS
6-DAY PERIOD. WILL MAINLY FOCUS ON THE "BIG PICTURE" THEMES OF
PRECIP/TEMPS.

STARTING WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...HAVE MAINTAINED AN
OFFICIALLY "DRY" FORECAST (MEANING LESS THAN 15 PERCENT CHANCES
BUT NOT NECESSARILY ZERO) FOR THE FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY TIME
FRAME...AND THEN MAINTAINED A LOW-CONFIDENCE 20 PERCENT SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STARTING WITH THE SHORTER TERM PORTION OF THIS
TIME FRAME...OBVIOUSLY DID NOT DEEM ANYTHING WORTHY OF "RUINING"
THE GOING DRY FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM DO TRY SPITTING OUT SOME SIGNALS OF SPOTTY
SPRINKLY/LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...AND THEN AGAIN MAYBE LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SEEMS TO BE TIED TO SMALL RIBBONS
OF MID-LEVEL SATURATION/LIFT EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH. BOTTOM LINE
IS...CANNOT TRULY GUARANTEE A COMPLETELY DRY WEEKEND FOR EVERY
SQUARE INCH OF THE CWA...BUT THE CHANCE OF RAIN SEEMS FAR TOO LOW
(AT LEAST FOR NOW) FOR A FORMAL FORECAST INCLUSION. GOING FARTHER
OUT IN TIME INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SOME MODELS ARE ALREADY HINTING
THAT AT LEAST WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD RETURN TO THE CWA
AS EARLY AS THE SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY DAYTIME TIME FRAME (MAINLY
PER THE GFS SOLUTION)...BUT GIVEN THAT THE LATEST ECMWF IS LESS
SUGGESTIVE WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. GETTING INTO
THE TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY TIME FRAME...THE PLAIN TRUTH IS THAT
NONE OF THESE 4 PERIODS CAN BE RULED OUT FOR AT LEAST SPOTTY
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES...BUT AT THIS DAY 6-7 DAY TIME RANGE THE
NIGHT PERIODS SEEM TO CARRY A TOUCH MORE MODEL SUPPORT FOR PRECIP
THAN THE DAY PERIODS...SO WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCES AT NIGHT WHILE
LEAVING THE DAY PERIODS DRY. OBVIOUSLY STAY TUNED FOR PLENTY OF
POSSIBLE CHANGES HERE.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...AGAIN NO "MAJOR" CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. VERY GENERALLY...THE COOLEST DAY IS RIGHT AWAY SATURDAY
AND THE COOLEST NIGHTS ARE RIGHT AWAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. MORE SPECIFICALLY...SATURDAY HIGHS ONLY AIMED INTO THE
LOW-MID 70S...LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT GENERALLY LOW 40S TO LOW 50S AND
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT LOW-MID 50S. IF ANYTHING...THE LATEST GUIDANCE
HAS SLIGHTLY "WARMED" LOWS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND HAVE MORE IN THE
WAY OF MID-UPPER 40S IN MOST NEBRASKA ZONES VERSUS LOW 40S. AS
SOUTHERLY BREEZES KICK BACK IN...A STEADY WARMUP COMMENCES FROM
SUNDAY INTO MID-WEEK...WITH SUNDAY HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOW-MID 80S
MOST AREAS AND THEN MID-UPPER 80S PREVALENT MONDAY-TUESDAY. AT THE
VERY LEAST...FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES COULD HIT 90 BOTH OF THESE
DAYS...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE HIGHS RAISED CLOSER TO 90
WITH TIME FOR MORE OF THE CWA. THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO LOWER HIGHS SLIGHTLY MORE SO INTO THE LOW-
MID 80S FOR THE WED-THURS TIME FRAME...BUT OF COURSE CONFIDENCE IN
THIS DAY 6-7 TIME FRAME IS A BIT SHAKY AS USUAL. FOLLOWING
SUIT...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO WARM BACK UP INTO MAINLY THE UPPER
50S-MID 60S RANGE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. CERTAINLY NO FLIRTATIONS
WITH THE FIRST FROST OF THE SEASON ON THE HORIZON YET.

FINISHING UP WITH A BRIEF OVERVIEW OF THE MAJOR LARGE SCALE
FEATURES: THE FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT FRAME FEATURES PRIMARILY
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DEEP TROUGH SLOWLY
DEPARTING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. AS THIS OCCURS...A
SEASONABLE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE INTO THE
PLAINS BRIEFLY (PROVIDING THE COOLISH FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)
BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FIRMLY BACK IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY. IN
FACT...SUNDAY IS TRENDING BREEZIER (GUSTS OF AT LEAST 20-25 MPH
LIKELY). BY THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME FRAME...FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS
BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY AS A LARGER SCALE TROUGH SETTLES INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS. SOME WEAK ENERGY COULD BRUSH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THIS TROUGH...BUT AS MENTIONED HAVE
MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. FINALLY BY TUESDAY NIGHT-
THURSDAY TIME FRAME...THIS LARGER SCALE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST THROUGH
MAINLY THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS...WITH SOMEWHAT WEAKER
FLOW/SHORTWAVE ENERGY BRUSHING THE LOCAL CENTRAL PLAINS REGION.
CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT SOME OFF-AND-ON SHOWERS/STORMS DURING
THIS TIME...BUT FAR...FAR TOO EARLY TO GET CAUGHT UP IN THE
DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRI AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015

THIS AFTERNOON: VFR WITH MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 8K FT.
SCT IFR TSTMS WILL DEVELOP WITH GREATEST CHANCE OF HITTING THE
TERMINALS 21Z-23Z. WATCH FOR POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS. NE WINDS 10-15
KTS OUTSIDE OF TSTMS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TONIGHT: VFR DECREASING CLOUDS. LIGHT N WINDS UNDER 10 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

FRI THRU 18Z: VFR. LIGHT N WINDS UNDER 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...HALBLAUB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
827 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2015

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
111330-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
827 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
...MAINLY FROM INTERSTATE 80 SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE...WITH HAIL AT LEAST
THE SIZE ONE INCH IN DIAMETER...AND DAMAGING WINDS AROUND 60 MPH.
HOWEVER...THE GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE FROM NEBRASKA
HIGHWAY 136 DOWN INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...WHERE HAIL TO NEAR 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER WILL BE POSSIBLE. A TORNADO ALSO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...INCLUDING NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

HALBLAUB

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