Severe Thunderstorm Warning 164, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
245 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015

...SEVERE TSTMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND AGAIN WED AFTERNOON-EVE...

ALOFT: THE PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN LOCKED IN SINCE SAT WILL REMAIN
BASICALLY UNCHANGED OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HRS AS SUBTROPICAL HIGH
PRES CONTS OVER THE ARKLATEX. A PLUME OF MID-HIGH LVL MOISTURE
CONTS TO CIRCULATE AROUND THE WRN SIDE OF THE HIGH /THRU AZ/NM/CO/
AND THEN E INTO NEB/KS...ALONG WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED
CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED VORT MAXIMA THAT MAY AID IN TSTM
DEVELOPMENT. ONE OF THE MORE INTERESTING SYNOPTIC DEVELOPMENTS IS
THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE FORMERLY QUASI-STATIONARY WRN USA TROF.
THIS WILL FORCE A JET STREAK TO STRENGTHEN AND TOP THE RIDGE...
PLACING THE CNTRL PLAINS IN THE RRQ TONIGHT INTO WED AM. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE RISK FOR TSTMS. THE APPROACH OF THE TROF LATE
TOMORROW SUGGESTS GOOD POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT.

SURFACE: THE LEE-SIDE TROF WILL DEEPEN OVER WY/CO THIS AFTERNOON
AND LOW PRES SHOULD GRADUALLY EVOLVE OVER WRN KS. THE SFC TROF
ACROSS SRN KS WILL REMAIN S OF THE FCST AREA...AND THIS WILL
MAINTAIN E-SE FLOW.

PLEASE SEE SPC OUTLOOKS FOR ADDITIONAL INFO ON SVR WX POTENTIAL.

THIS AFTERNOON: ANOTHER NICE SUMMER DAY IS IN PROGRESS. CAN'T
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO OVER N-CNTRL KS AND S-CNTRL NEB W
OF HWY 281...WITHIN AREAS OF LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER...
MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH THE CAP IN PLACE.

WE ARE CURRENTLY MONITORING TOWERS GOING UP BETWEEN BBW-EAR.

TONIGHT: SCT TSTMS WILL DEVELOP OVER ERN CO AND WRN/SRN KS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE RRQ OF THE UPR-LVL JET AND THE ASSOCIATED
MASS/ THERMODYNAMIC ADJUSTMENTS...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR MCS
DEVELOPMENT FROM THIS ACTIVITY. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS MCS COULD STILL BE SVR BY THE TIME IT ARRIVES
INTO THE SW FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA...PROBABLY AFTER 9 PM.

MODEL QPF CLUSTERING AND SREF QPF PROBABILITIES SUGGEST TSTMS
WILL GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS AND LIFT NE INTO THE FCST AREA
TONIGHT. A 25-30 KT LOW-LVL JET IS FCST TO DEVELOP AND SHOULD AID
IN MAINTAINING NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG ITS COOL POOL.

WED: IT ALL DEPENDS ON WHAT HAPPENS TONIGHT. A DIMINISHING
CLUSTER OF TSTMS MAY BE ON-GOING OVER PARTS OF THE FCST AREA
DURING THE MORNING. THIS WILL PROBABLY LEAVE A LARGE AREA OF
EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS THAT WILL COMPLICATE AFTERNOON TSTM
INITIATION. SOME AREAS WILL BE DRY IN THE MORNING (PROBABLY NRN
KS) WITH A BREAK EVENTUALLY EXPECTED FOR S-CNTRL NEB.

IF/WHERE CLOUDS DON'T CLEAR...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A VERY COOL
DAY. SOME PARTS OF S-CNTRL NEB COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S.
HIGH TEMPS ARE LOW CONFIDENCE AND WILL PROBABLY BUST SVRL DEGS TOO
WARM IF SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY.

SEVERE: THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND ANY AREAS THAT CLEAR WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED FOR SVR TSTMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SUPERCELLS.
LOW- LVL WIND FIELDS ARE FCST TO STRENGTHEN E/NE OF THE SFC LOW
AND THIS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY ENLARGE HODOGRAPHS...WITH 0-3 KM SRH
OF 200-400 M2/S2. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN 0-1 KM SRH OF 100-200
M2/S2... SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES. IN ADDITION...MLCAPE IS FCST AS
HIGH AS 3000 J/KG. WE WILL KNOW MORE AT DAWN TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015

THE BIGGEST ISSUE REVOLVES AROUND DETERMINING CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE BIG ISSUE FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL
TEMPORARILY TAMP DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE A BIT...CAUSING
TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT COOLER...ALBEIT NOT THAT FAR FROM NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. WE COULD HAVE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NIGHT BEFORE
OCCUR...BEFORE NEW DEVELOPMENT OCCURS BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE A FOCUS CONVECTION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WITH DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S AND A
MODEST MID-LEVEL JET...WE COULD GET SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL OCCUR MORE TOWARD EVENING AS SOME
CAPPING COULD DELAY THE ONSET OF MUCH OF THE CONVECTION.
PRECIPITABLE WATER COULD NEAR 2 INCHES IN OUR EAST FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ACCORDING TO SREF ENSEMBLES. ENSEMBLES ALSO INDICATE THAT
IT WILL BE PRUDENT TO NUDGE UP CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
EVENING...UP TO NEAR 70 POPS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL AND EAST.

AS THE RIDGE BUILDS STRONGER FOR THURSDAY...CONVECTION CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...BUT WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS LIKELY COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY...WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES CREEPING UP INTO THE UPPER
80S TO MID 90S THURSDAY. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A STRONG
STORM...PERHAPS IN OUR SOUTH FROM RE-FIRING OF CONVECTION FROM
EARLIER IN THE DAY. A NORTHERN STREAM LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE IS
FORECAST TO FOCUS MOSTLY NORTH OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT
COULD SKIM THE CWA...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER RIDGING WILL RETROGRADE TO THE
WEST AND AMPLIFY OVER OUR AREA...WITH BOTH MODELS AND ENSEMBLE
MEANS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE HARD TO COME
BY DURING THE PERIOD...BUT NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION...AS
LOW- AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS MAY GIVE US A SMALL SHOT OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HERE AND THERE AS THEY RIDE ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD DUE TO THE RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z WED AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015

SIGNIFICANT AVIATION WX: POTENTIAL FOR IFR TSTMS 04Z-15Z/WED.

THIS AFTERNOON: VFR. JUST SOME FEW-SCT ALTOCU DRIFTING THRU AROUND
12K FT. LGT AND VRBL WINDS WILL BECOME E 5-10 KTS. CONFIDENCE:
HIGH

TONIGHT: VFR TO START...BUT A PERIOD OF TSTMS WITH IFR VSBYS IS
POSSIBLE AFTER 04Z. THERE IS TREMENDOUS UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING. E
WINDS UNDER 10 KTS...EXCEPT IN VRB IN TSTMS. CONFIDENCE: LOW

WED THRU 18Z: IFR TSTMS MAY BE ON-GOING AT 11Z. AFTER THE TSTMS
END...AN MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR CIG IS POSSIBLE. E WINDS UNDER 10
KTS...BUT THIS IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE LINGERING EFFECTS OF TSTMS.
CONFIDENCE: LOW

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
256 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
152000-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
256 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
PRIMARILY WEST OF HIGHWAY 281. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THESE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL TO AROUND 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...AND WIND
TO NEAR 60 MPH.

AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
TO FORM OUT TO THE WEST AND MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK
AREA. THIS STORM CLUSTER COULD BE SEVERE BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WEST OF
A LINE FROM BEAVER CITY NEBRASKA TO OSBORNE KANSAS. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH MONDAY. THE CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. HOWEVER...WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME STORMS COULD BE SUPERCELLS.
HAIL TO AT LEAST THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS...DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 MPH
AND A TORNADO OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE.

THERE COULD BE A STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

HALBLAUB