Severe Thunderstorm Warning 142, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
556 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

VERY UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RESULT
IN AN ACTIVE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING ACROSS THE ROCKIES COMBINES WITH A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET THAT IS FORECAST TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES...
HOWEVER...MULTIPLE WEAK BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ARE
SERVING FOR A FOCAL POINT OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

THAT SAID...SO FAR...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
STRUGGLED TO REACH HEIGHTS INDICATIVE OF LARGE HAIL...BUT THINK
THAT AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES THEY COULD DEVELOP A BIT
FURTHER...JUSTIFYING THE CURRENT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THROUGH
9 PM CDT FOR ALL OF OUR NEBRASKA COUNTIES. IN ADDITION TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...GIVEN THE RELATIVELY HIGH BASES OF THESE
STORMS...WE COULD SEE SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN ADDITION TO
HEAVY RAINFALL...AS THEY HAVE ALREADY PROVEN TO BE EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCERS ACROSS NORTH PLATTES FORECAST AREA.

WHILE SHEAR IS LACKING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH 0-6 KM VALUES ONLY
AROUND 20KTS...SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE LLJ KICKS
UP ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COUPLED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE
EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR
ADDITIONAL STORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...LARGE HAIL...AS WELL AS
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. TOYED WITH THE IDEA OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR PARTS OF THE AREA THAT HAVE SEEN THE MOST RAINFALL THE PAST
WEEK OR SO...BUT WAS UNABLE TO GET NEIGHBORING OFFICES ON BOARD IN
ORDER TO ISSUE THIS. THAT SAID...DO THINK FLOODING COULD
POTENTIALLY BE A PROBLEM DUE TO HIGH FORECAST QPF AMOUNTS AND
ANTECEDENT MOISTURE CONDITIONS...AND KEPT HEAVY RAINFALL MENTION
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A RESULT.

FOR THURSDAY...EXPECT A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT...WITH A DROP IN
850MB OF OVER 10C NOTED IN MODEL DATA...TO MAKES ITS WAY RAPIDLY
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. WHILE THE COOLEST AIR BEHIND
THIS FRONT WONT BE REALIZED UNTIL THE EXTENDED PERIODS...THURSDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE NOTABLY COOLER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES...WITH THE CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER LIMITED TO
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS THAT WILL STILL BE ON WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

ALOFT: THE POLAR JET WILL REMAIN WILL N OF THE FCST AREA WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE TROF OVER THE W AND A RIDGE IN THE E. THE LOW MOVING INTO
CA WILL OPEN UP AND MEANDER E THRU THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES...S OF THE
WESTERLIES. MULTIPLE SUBTLE PERTURBATIONS WILL BE EJECTED ACROSS THE
FCST AREA THRU MON...UNTIL IT DRIFTS E OF THE REGION. THEN
INDICATIONS FROM THE GFS/EC/GEM ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE THAT A LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS.

SURFACE: THE COOL FRONT THAT MOVES THRU DURING THE DAY THU WILL SINK
INTO THE SRN PLAINS. THIS FRONT WILL WASH OUT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH THE WARM SECTOR GRADUALLY OVERTAKING THE REGION BY SAT
WITH HIGH PRES ANCHORED OVER THE SE USA.

A FEW DETAILS...

THU NIGHT: WHATEVER TSTM ACTIVITY DOES DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON...IT
SHOULD QUICKLY BE S AND E OF THE FCST AREA.

THERE IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR POST-FRONTAL LOW STRATUS IN MOS AND
MULTI-MODEL CROSS SECTIONS INTO THU NIGHT INTO FRI. THIS WILL
SUPPRESS DAYTIME TEMPS. IF STRATUS LINGERS ALL DAY FRI...SOME AREAS
MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S.

FRI: MOST TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE FCST AREA OVER SRN KS
INITIALLY...CLOSE TO THE FRONT. INTO THE NIGHTTIME HRS...THERE ARE
INDICATIONS TSTMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS A RELATIVELY POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROF IS FCST TO PIVOT AROUND THE SE SIDE OF THE UPR LOW.

SAT: MORE TSTM POTENTIAL WITH THE TROF REMAINING OVERHEAD.

SUN-WED: NOT MUCH TIME TO DISCUSS DUE TO IMPENDING CURRENT TSTM
DEVELOPMENTS. TSTM THREATS APPEAR TO DECREASE WITH TEMPS INCREASING
AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 553 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
EVENING WITH STORMS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AS THE LLVL JET
STRENGTHENS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE IN TSTMS. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEPART LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO HOLD FIRM DURING THE DAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF
STORMS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THURSDAY WHICH SHLD BE SOUTH OF TERMINALS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...FAY

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