Severe Thunderstorm Warning 124, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
535 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015

ALOFT: A RIDGE IS OVER THE PLAINS WITH TROFS OF THE ERN AND WRN
USA. A SHORTWAVE TROF WAS MOVING THRU THE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL COMPLETE THIS ACTION TONIGHT...WITH THE RIDGE REBUILDING IN
ITS WAKE WITH RISING HEIGHTS.

SURFACE: A SFC LOW WAS OVER SW KS. A SYNOPTIC COOL FRONT EXTENDED
NE FROM THIS LOW THRU NEB-IA-WI. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS TRAILING
BEHIND THE MCS OVER ERN KS AND THE WRN EDGE OF THE BOUNDARY
INTERSECTED THE FRONT NEAR NORTON KS. ALL OF THESE BOUNDARIES WILL
BE FOCI FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT THRU TONIGHT.

AS THE UPR TROF DEPARTS...THIS WILL ALLOW THE SYNOPTIC FRONT TO
GRADUALLY SINK SE AND BY MIDDAY TOMORROW IT SHOULD MERGE WITH
OTHER CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES AND BE ORIENTED FROM W-E NEAR I-70.

EXPECT SCT TSTMS TO CONT AND/OR DEVELOP NEAR VARIOUS BOUNDARIES
AND EVENTUALLY GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS THAT WILL PROPAGATE THRU
ERN NEB/KS. OTHER STORMS WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE FRONT RANGE.
WITHOUT UPR SUPPORT...THESE STORMS PROBABLY WON'T SURVIVE THE TRIP
E.

PLEASE SEE SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK AS WELL AS THE WPC EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE ENVIRONMENT AND
CONVECTIVE EXPECTATIONS.

ALSO REFER TO MESO DISC 887.

HEAVY RAIN: SLOW-MOVING OR STALLED BOUNDARIES ALONG WITH THE LLJ
SUGGESTS REPEATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND/OR SLOW STORM MOVEMENT IS
POSSIBLE. CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGEST SLOW MOVEMENT ONCE THE LLJ
DEVELOPS WITH CELL TRAINING POSSIBLE. THEREFORE THE FF WATCH WAS
EXTENDED UNTIL 10 AM/FRI.

THIS ENVIRONMENT IS THE MADDOX MESOHIGH-TYPE. THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT
IS A RED FLAG.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015

THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY AND THEN
SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK ON MONDAY. THIS AT LEAST
BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH EITHER DRY CONDITIONS OR VERY LOW CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE IS WIDESPREAD MODEL
DISCREPANCY WITH WHERE THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL BE AS WE HEAD INTO
THE WEEKEND DUE TO HOW ONGOING CONVECTION WILL IMPACT THE
BOUNDARIES LOCATION. HOWEVER...AT LEAST SOME FORECAST MODELS KEEP
THIS BOUNDARY OVER SOME PORTION OF OUR CWA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...EVEN IF THAT MEANS THE BOUNDARY SLIDES THROUGH AND THEN
PUSHES BACK INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...WITH THE SFC
BOUNDARY IN THE GENERAL AREA...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT AT THIS TIME WILL BE
LESS THAN 50/50 GIVEN MODEL UNCERTAINTY. EXPECT THESE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL BE ADJUSTED AND FINE TUNED AS WE APPROACH THIS TIME
FRAME AND AFTER WE SEE HOW CONVECTION PLAYS OUT TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
GIVEN THE RECENT HEAVY RAIN IN SOME AREAS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL ALSO CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SHOULD SEE WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
EVENTUALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH AT LEAST A TEMPORARY TREND
TOWARDS DRIER CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY WARM IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

THURSDAY...THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF BOTH BRING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA BRINGING AN END TO THE BRIEF DRY
PERIOD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE LIKELY
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WILL ALSO HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 530 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS BEFORE LOWER
CEILINGS TAKE OVER THE TERMINALS. THEREAFTER...MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE REALIZED THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS FRIDAY. THERE COULD VERY WELL BE SOME IFR CONDITIONS
PRESENT IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE TERMINALS. WE WILL
MONITOR SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS CLOSELY TO SEND OUT AMENDMENTS
AS NECESSARY ONCE CONVECTION GETS GOING. OTHERWISE...CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON EXACT TIMING AT THE MOMENT FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...TIMING...AND COVERAGE. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO
AT LEAST MENTION THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME AND IS
NOTED IN THE CURRENT TAF.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NEZ061>064-073>077-
     083>087.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KSZ005>007-018-019.

&&

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...GUERRERO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
402 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
052115-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
402 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING. THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK THAT
SOME STORMS WILL BE SEVERE. LARGE HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IN
DIAMETER...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS. A TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE PRIMARILY
BEFORE 9 PM.

SLOW STORM MOVEMENT AND/OR REPEATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST THE OUTLOOK AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. PLEASE SEE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MESSAGE FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

FLOOD WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE PLATTE RIVER BETWEEN GOTHENBURG AND THE CENTRAL CITY AREA.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH SATURDAY BEING THE MORE LIKELY DAY FOR POTENTIAL
SEVERE WEATHER. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN THAT COULD
LEAD TO...OR WORSEN EXISTING FLOODING ISSUES.

FLOOD WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE PLATTE RIVER BETWEEN GOTHENBURG AND THE CENTRAL CITY AREA
FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF THE OUTLOOK
AREA.

SPOTTERS...PLEASE RELAY ALL REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NWS
IN HASTINGS.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

HALBLAUB/WESELY

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