Severe Thunderstorm Warning 49, NWS Glasgow, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
336 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A STRONG SUMMER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT NORTHEAST MONTANA TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

CURRENTLY THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH IS SWINGING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...PLACING NORTHEAST MONTANA IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THE MAIN FOCUS IS FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...TRANSITIONING
TO HEAVY SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS SUCH THAT
SOME STORMS THIS EVENING COULD BE SEVERE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
NORTH DAKOTA BORDER WHERE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS MORE FAVORABLE.

HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO BE A THREAT...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE AREAS
THAT ALREADY SAW HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS LAST NIGHT...THUS THE FLOOD
WATCH WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE VALLEY AND DANIELS COUNTIES.

TUESDAY MORNING WINDS WILL QUICKLY BE ON THE UPTICK AS THE UPPER
LOW DEEPENS OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT WINDS
REACHING 40 TO 60 MPH...THUS WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING FOR ALL OF NORTHEAST MONTANA.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY DECREASE BY SUNSET ON TUESDAY AS THE STACKED
SYSTEM PUSHES OUT TO THE EAST. PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE ALL BUT
ENDED ACROSS MONTANA AS WELL...WITH JUST THE FAR NORTHEAST
POSSIBLY SEEING SOME SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE CONSIDERABLY QUIETER AS UPPER
RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THE UPPER RIDGE REBOUNDS IN THE WEST...WHICH WILL GENERATE ZONAL
TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA. THIS
WILL BE A GENERALLY WARM AND DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALSO
CONTINUOUS DISTURBANCES IN CANADA WILL TEND TO MAINTAIN THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER THE LOCAL REGION. THIS WILL KEEP THE HOT
DESERT AIR TO OUR SOUTH...WHICH WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL. FEW NEEDED CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER HIGH DOMINATES OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD MONTANA STALLS OUT OVER HUDSON
BAY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP NORTHEAST MONTANA IN
SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST FLOW INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

REBOUNDING RIDGE WILL BRING HOT AND DRY WEATHER BACK INTO MONTANA
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER JET ACROSS WESTERN CANADA WILL
SUPPRESS RIDGE ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. WHILE MOST
OF THE MOISTURE ALSO REMAINS NORTH OF THE BORDER A FEW SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW COULD PUSH SHOWERS TOWARD THE HILINE BY
THE WEEKEND BUT WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...
A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY
THAT WILL BRING AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN...THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
SEVERE...AND VERY STRONG WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY.

MOSTLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER A SURFACE LOW IN NORTHEAST
WYOMING WILL BRING STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS OF 25-35KT...

...THEN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTH AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
EASTERN MONTANA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

...SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND/OR LARGE DAMAGING
HAIL...

...THEN WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.
SOME RAIN WILL BE HEAVY.

TUESDAY...VERY STRONG SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25-35G55KT...AND POSSIBLY
HIGHER...ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM.

SCT

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...
DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...GARFIELD...MCCONE...NORTHERN
PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...PETROLEUM...PRAIRIE...RICHLAND...
SHERIDAN...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR FORT PECK LAKE FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...
GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...NORTHERN
PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR MTZ122.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
235 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

MTZ016>027-059>062-281100-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-
DANIELS-SHERIDAN-WESTERN ROOSEVELT-PETROLEUM-GARFIELD-MCCONE-
RICHLAND-DAWSON-PRAIRIE-WIBAUX-NORTHERN PHILLIPS-
SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS-NORTHERN VALLEY-EASTERN ROOSEVELT-
235 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINGING A VARIETY OF WEATHER IMPACTS. A RED
FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ZONE 122 THIS EVENING. A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR FORT PECK LAKE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PHILLIPS...VALLEY...AND DANIELS COUNTIES
FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTHEAST MONTANA ON
TUESDAY. VERY STRONG WESTERLY WIND WILL BE PRESENT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
544 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     HAIL             14 SW HINSDALE          48.25N 107.30W
07/27/2015  E0.50 INCH       VALLEY             MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA AND DIME SIZED HAIL WITH HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUST TO
            AROUND 40 MPH.

&&

MATTM

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