Severe Thunderstorm Warning 20, NWS Glasgow, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
309 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ZONES
AND THE LOWER MISSOURI BREAKS. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO SPREAD
EASTWARD TOWARD THE BIG SHEEP MOUNTAINS AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES...AND THE SYSTEM SLIDES EASTWARD. THIS WIND SHIFT WILL
HELP ANY LINGERING SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN CANADA TO EXIT THE AREA
FOR AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES TO
LIE EAST OF A WOLF POINT TO CIRCLE LINE...WHERE FAVORABLE SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY LIES. SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
HAS BEEN SHUNTED BY EARLY STORMS AND CLOUD COVER THAT KEPT TEMPS
DOWN ACROSS THE EAST. EXPECT THIS TREND TO REVERSE HOWEVER AS
AMPLE CLEARING AND DAYTIME HEATING IS NOW PRESENT. THINGS SHOULD
QUIET DOWN BY LATE EVENING...ALTHOUGH ENOUGH FORCING IS PRESENT
FOR AN ISOLATED NOCTURNAL STORM OR TWO OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FEATURE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH
THROUGH ON THURSDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS NOW PLACE MORE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...I.E. PHILLIPS AND
PETROLEUM COUNTIES. THUS TRENDED UP POPS THERE. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO COOL WITH THE BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE...WITH
TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMALS. GILCHRIST

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

AS THE WESTERN STATES RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RETREAT
SOUTHWARD...NE MONTANA WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY UNDER A MORE
PROGRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING WITH EACH PASSAGE OF A SHORT-WAVE
DISTURBANCE FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND WESTERN CANADIAN
PRAIRIE. MODELS SHOW FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISCREPANCIES ARRIVE BY MONDAY
MORNING. GFS KEEPS US UNDER GENERAL TROUGHING FROM THE NORTH AND
THE EC WANTS TO BUILD IN A MUCH WEAKER TROUGH AND ALMOST A RIDGE.
BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...HOT HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN... ANCHORING THE WESTERN RIDGE. THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS MONTANA FRIDAY FOR A RETURN TO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES... WITH HIGHS AGAIN REACHING INTO THE
90S.

SATURDAY...A STRONG UPPER LOW...THAT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GULF OF
ALASKA AND DROP SOUTH INTO ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN...WILL BE
SENDING A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA AROUND SATURDAY
EVENING. THE DAY...TEMPERATURE-WISE...WILL BE A REPEAT OF FRIDAY
AS DESERT AIR CREEPS NORTH INTO THE REGION. THIS COLD FRONT
REACHING THE HOT AIR SHOULD INITIATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
BUT ALSO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO
SOUTHEAST MONTANA. WITH A DAY AND EVENING OF FIREWORKS...THIS
COULD BECOME A FIRE WEATHER ISSUE WHERE FUELS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM
THE RECENT HOT DRY PERIOD. WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...
SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP. FOR NOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
TIMING COULD RANGE FROM LATE AFTERNOON TO AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP
SIGNIFICANTLY...SENDING HIGHS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S. OFF TO THE WEST ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BE DEVELOPING...BUT THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD LAST INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION.

SCT

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VARYING MVFR TO VFR.

SYNOPSIS: SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS WITH MVFR VISIBILITY INTO
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...THIS EVENING ANY OF THE TERMINALS COULD SEE
A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WHICH COULD LOWER CIGS AND VIS BELOW VFR
LEVELS. STORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS OF 30 TO 40
MPH. OUTSIDE OF SMOKE GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE
THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

GILCHRIST

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR MTZ136-137.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR FORT PECK
LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

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