Severe Thunderstorm Warning 327, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
707 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING
DFW AREA AIRPORTS...AND TIMING THE WIND SHIFTS ASSOCIATED WITH
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING TOWARDS THE DFW AREA FROM STORMS ACROSS
THE REGION.

HAVE A WIND SHIFT TIMED FOR KDFW AND KDAL FROM SOUTH WINDS TO
NORTHWEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING IN
FROM DENTON COUNTY. HAVE A WIND SHIFT TIMED AT KAFW AND KFTW FOR
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING DUE EAST FROM PARKER COUNTY. THESE
BOUNDARIES ARE LIKELY TO MERGE...WITH THE DENTON COUNTY BOUNDARY
DOMINATING THE RESULTANT WIND DIRECTION BECAUSE MORE SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE FEEDING THIS BOUNDARY VERSUS THE PARKER COUNTY
BOUNDARY. EXPECT A NORTHWEST WIND TO EMERGE BEHIND THESE
BOUNDARIES HERE SHORTLY AFTER 00Z.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SHORT TERM RADAR TRENDS...AND AMEND FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ON AN AIRPORT BY AIRPORT BASIS IF WE SEE THEM
DEVELOP NEARBY. IF STORMS DO DIRECTLY IMPACT NORTH TEXAS
AIRPORTS...LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS ASIDE FROM LIGHTNING.

THINK WE WILL SEE A SECOND AREA OF DEVELOPING STORMS TONIGHT...
CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT. THIS SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT IS SUGGESTED BY
MANY SHORT-RANGE AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...AND IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...THINK
THAT DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL CAUSE MOST THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO SINK SOUTH IN ITS WAKE. AS A RESULT...DO NOT HAVE ANY
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION IN BEHIND THE EXPECTED FRONT PASSAGE AT
THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS AND NORTH FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015/
AT 3 PM A COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR LUBBOCK
TO OKLAHOMA CITY...AND IT CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING IN AN UNSTABLE AND
UNCAPPED AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITHIN AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS THAT IS ALSO ADVANCING SOUTHWARD. SO FAR CONVECTION IS
UNORGANIZED...BUT AS CONVECTIVE COLD POOLS ARE GENERATED...WOULD
EXPECT SOME CLUSTERS OF STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE RED RIVER
VALLEY REGION AND TRACK SOUTHWARD.

IT IS NOT ENTIRELY CERTAIN JUST HOW MUCH COVERAGE WILL OCCUR
DURING THE EVENING HOURS...BUT OBVIOUSLY THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR THESE LATE AFTERNOON CLUSTERS OF STORMS AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES TO SEED MANY MORE STORMS. IN EFFECT THIS MEANS MOST OF
THE CONVECTION COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE RAPIDLY
OVERTURNS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HOWEVER IS MORE IMPRESSED WITH THE
CONVECTIVE CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS IS WHEN SUSTAINED LIFT
BEGINS TO SATURATE A DEEP LAYER FROM 700-850MB WHICH YIELDS
1000-2000 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE WITH PARCELS LIFTED FROM THIS
LEVEL. SINCE THERE IS REALLY NOTHING TO INHIBIT THE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION FROM GROWING UPSCALE THIS EVENING...WILL SHOW HIGH POPS
DURING THE EVENING HOURS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...BUT
HAVE ALSO KEPT THE HIGH POPS CONTINUING AFTER MIDNIGHT IN CASE THE
EVENING ACTIVITY DOES NOT MATERIALIZE AND IT TAKES A LITTLE LONGER
FOR THINGS TO GET GOING. OTHERWISE THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO RAISE
POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS
THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES AS
THEY DROP SOUTHWARD. RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED EVERYWHERE TONIGHT...AS
THERE IS NOT ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO PREVENT GAPS IN ANY QUASI-
LINE THAT DEVELOPS...BUT DO EXPECT 50-80 PERCENT COVERAGE WITH THE
HIGHER COVERAGE OVER THE EASTERN ZONES. GIVEN THE SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND VERY WEAK WIND SHEAR...THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WITH ANY STORMS IS DAMAGING WINDS...OCCURRING PRIMARILY
BEFORE 10 PM. HOWEVER ALL STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.

THE FRONT WILL QUIETLY PASS THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT EVENING AND OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MAY GREATLY
DISTURB AND DISTORT THE WIND FIELDS AND SURFACE FEATURES SO THAT
IDENTIFYING FROPA MAY BE DIFFICULT. IN ANY CASE...THIS FRONT
SHOULD BECOME SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA TOMORROW...WITH SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IN ITS VICINITY. DRIER AIR WILL
BE MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...AND THUS THE BEST
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...ENDING BY
THE EVENING HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OUT OF THE AREA. HIGH
TEMPS SATURDAY WILL ALSO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER TODAY...WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THESE LOW DEWPOINTS AND OTHER FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING PARAMETERS WILL ENSURE PLEASANTLY COOL TEMPERATURES BY
SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE NEAR 90
FOR MOST OF THE CWA...BUT AGAIN DEWPOINTS WILL BE LOWER THAN
NORMAL...MAKING IT FEEL FAIRLY PLEASANT FOR LATE JUNE.

NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE EAST. MEANWHILE A
FAIRLY STRONG THERMAL LOW WILL SET UP OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS...ENSURING MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW TO MID
LEVELS. THE WIND PROFILE FROM 4000 FT UP WILL NOT BE TOO FAVORABLE
FOR BRINGING ANY QUALITY MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL KEEP
ANY RAIN CHANCES LOW. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR ANY RAIN LOOK LIKE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AXIS WILL
DROP INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE. WILL KEEP THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DRY...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THERE WILL BE
STRAY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EVERY AFTERNOON NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO REBOUND FROM THE WEEKEND COOL-DOWN...BUT HIGHS WILL STAY
NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AS TEXAS REMAINS IN A WEAKNESS
ALOFT.

TR.92

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  73  89  68  91  71 /  70  20   5   5   5
WACO, TX              74  89  67  91  69 /  50  40  20  10   5
PARIS, TX             72  86  67  88  68 /  70  20   0   5   5
DENTON, TX            71  88  65  90  67 /  60  20   0   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          73  87  64  89  67 /  70  20   0   5   5
DALLAS, TX            74  90  69  92  73 /  70  20   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           73  88  68  90  68 /  80  30   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         73  88  68  90  71 /  70  40  10  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            73  89  67  91  69 /  30  50  20  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     72  87  65  89  65 /  50  20   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
350 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-271200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
350 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGHEST NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 THIS
EVENING...THEN SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT. A FEW SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
BEING THE MAIN THREATS. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. A FEW STRONGER STORMS CONTAINING GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH
TEXAS ON TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

VERY LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DUNN

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
705 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

TXZ103-104-118-119-270100-
DALLAS TX-TARRANT TX-DENTON TX-COLLIN TX-
705 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN DALLAS...DENTON...COLLIN
AND NORTHEASTERN TARRANT COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM CDT...

AT 702 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW
WINDS EXTENDING FROM MCKINNEY TO LINCOLN PARK TO ROANOKE...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS AS THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. ANY STORMS WHICH POP UP
ACROSS THE AREA COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

LAT...LON 3342 9696 3341 9684 3340 9639 3334 9638
      3335 9629 3298 9630 3298 9651 3290 9652
      3289 9733 3343 9738
TIME...MOT...LOC 0002Z 273DEG 25KT 3318 9688

30