Severe Thunderstorm Warning 12, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
712 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...THUNDERSTORMS...NOCTURNAL STRATUS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH NIGHTFALL...AFTER
WHICH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL STABILIZE...AND THE SUPPORTING
IMPULSE ALOFT WILL BEGIN SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION. THE
RESULTING SUBSIDENCE SHOULD PRECLUDE ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

A POTENT 40-KT LLJ WILL SURGE MVFR STRATUS NORTHWARD...BLANKETING
ALL TAF SITES SOON AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE STRATUS WILL STEADILY LIFT
THURSDAY MORNING...BUT WITH A STRONG INVERSION IN PLACE...IT MAY
TAKE MUCH OF THE DAY TO SCATTER OUT.

ALTHOUGH A DRYLINE WILL APPROACH THE I-35 CORRIDOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...THE CAP WILL LIKELY PREVENT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
OR OTHERWISE LIMIT COVERAGE.

25

&&

.UPDATE...
A QUICK ADJUSTMENT TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST REGARDING STORM
CHANCES FOR TONIGHT...AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR AREA AND MOVE INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT. 1000-1500 J/KG SBCAPE CONTINUES TO
MAINTAIN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WHILE CAPE ALOFT WITHIN THE HAIL
GROWTH ZONE /-10 TO -30 DEG C LAYER/ REMAINS 400-500 J/KG. WILL
CARRY 20-40 PERCENT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY SOUTHEAST
OF AN EASTLAND-MINERAL WELLS-GAINESVILLE LINE FOR THIS EVENING...
WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE EAST/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. SLIGHT
CHANCES WILL BE HELD ACROSS THE SE THIRD OF THE CWA FOR THE
OVERNIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING LIFT FROM THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR 30-40 KTS AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
INSTABILITY...SOME STORM ORGANIZATION AND UPSCALE GROWTH REMAINS
FOR NOW WITH ISOLATED STRONG-SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET
OR INTO MID EVENING. AS WE APPROACH MIDNIGHT AND BEYOND...LARGE-
SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD START TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE AREA ALONG WITH BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. ANY RISK FOR STRONG-SEVERE STORMS SHOULD WANE
WITH THE LACK OF A SURFACE FOCUS AND LARGER SCALE LIFT MOVING
AWAY FROM THE AREA.

ANOTHER UPDATE WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE THE 10 PM NEWS IF TRENDS
DICTATE THAT ADJUSTMENTS ARE NEEDED IN THE FORECAST.

05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015/
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EAST ACROSS TEXAS AND THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE CLOUDCOVER ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE HAS LIMITED ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
THAT SAID...LOCATIONS SOUTHWEST OF THE EARLIER ACTIVITY /AND
OUTSIDE OF THE THICKER CLOUD COVER/ ARE NOW EXPERIENCING
CONVECTIVE INITIATION...AND ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE
CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE. THOUGH THE BEST INSTABILITY HAS REMAINED
MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE AS COOLER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE AIDS IN ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION. WE WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION THIS EVENING
WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE SYSTEM
ACCELERATES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.

AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CONUS LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH NORTH TEXAS
FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A DRYLINE WILL SURGE EAST TO NEAR THE
I-35 CORRIDOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GOOD INSTABILITY IS BEING
ADVERTISED IN THE VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE A
STRONG CAP WILL PRECLUDE CONVECTIVE INITIATION FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE REGION. WE WILL KEEP SOME 20 POPS ALONG I-35 NORTH OF I-20
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHERE A LOW PROBABILITY FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL EXIST. LOW TO MID 90S TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA WHERE VEERED WINDS
AND DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE.

THE FAST MOVING FRONT WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF NORTH
TEXAS. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF WILL LIKELY REMAIN
TOO DRY FOR PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. STRONG NORTH
WINDS WILL USHER IN SEASONABLY COOL AIR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
AS A LARGER SCALE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE WEST COAST. INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE THE COOL AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE WILL
GENERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE AT THE
SURFACE MONDAY AS CYCLOGENESIS INTENSIFIES IN LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
THIS WILL PLACE NORTH TEXAS BACK IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR MOST OF
NEXT WEEK IN ADVANCE OF THE DEEPENING WEST COAST TROUGH. CHANCES
OF MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MONDAY THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK AS SUBTLE DISTURBANCES PASS OVERHEAD IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME OF
THESE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND WE
WILL GET A BETTER LOOK AT THE FORECAST ELEMENTS AS WE HEAD
THROUGH EASTER WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN ABOUT
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE 80S.

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  67  86  67  74  47 /  20  20  20  20   5
WACO, TX              66  84  67  77  48 /  30  10  10  30   5
PARIS, TX             64  79  65  72  42 /  30  20  20  30   5
DENTON, TX            66  84  66  74  44 /  20  20  20  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          65  81  66  73  44 /  20  20  20  20   5
DALLAS, TX            67  84  67  75  47 /  20  20  20  20   5
TERRELL, TX           65  82  67  74  45 /  30  20  20  30   5
CORSICANA, TX         65  81  66  76  47 /  30  10  10  30   5
TEMPLE, TX            66  83  66  77  48 /  30  10  10  30   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     65  90  66  74  45 /  20  10  10  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

25/05

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
719 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

TXZ135-148-020100-
HENDERSON TX-ANDERSON TX-
719 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN HENDERSON AND
NORTHWESTERN ANDERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM CDT...

AT 718 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12
MILES SOUTH OF ATHENS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3186 9570 3197 9598 3236 9581 3236 9551
      3233 9545 3229 9545 3224 9548 3220 9546
      3215 9548 3213 9546 3212 9546 3209 9543
TIME...MOT...LOC 0018Z 205DEG 28KT 3202 9585

MB

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
732 PM CDT WED APR 01 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 PM     HAIL             2 S POOLVILLE           32.95N  97.85W
04/01/2015  E1.00 INCH       PARKER             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL TO SIZE OF QUARTERS

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