River Flood Warning 91, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
350 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

CORRECTED FIRST LINE IN 4TH PARAGRAPH

.DISCUSSION...
DUE TO PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE
GENERALLY COOLER THAN 24 HOURS EARLIER. BUT WITH DEW POINTS AROUND
70F AND LITTLE TO NO INHIBITION...CONVECTIVE CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS IN SIMILAR FASHION. MLCAPE VALUES
HAVE SOARED ABOVE 2000J/KG IN MANY AREAS SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR...WITH VALUES APPROACHING 2500J/KG IN FAR SOUTHERN ZONES
WHERE TEMPS HAVE REACHED THE MID 80S. PW VALUES NEARLY 2 INCHES IN
THESE AREAS WILL ASSURE CONSIDERABLE PRECIP LOADING IN STRONG
UPDRAFTS. DESPITE MORE PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT TODAY...THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN A FEW DOWNBURSTS...A SUBSET OF WHICH MAY REACH SEVERE
LIMITS AT THE SURFACE. SPEED SHEAR IS RATHER ORDINARY...BUT THE
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 3KM IS SUFFICIENT TO ROTATE THESE
STRONG UPDRAFTS. IN HIGH-INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENTS...TORNADOES CAN
OCCUR WITH THESE MINI-SUPERCELLS. ALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
REMAINS WEAK...IT HAS RECOVERED ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE SLOW-MOVING
MEANDERING STORMS WE ENCOUNTERED ON MONDAY. NONETHELESS...THE
FLOOD THREAT WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY AND
SATURATED SOILS. CREEKS AND STREAMS...AS WELL AS MAIN-STEM
RIVERS...REMAIN PRONE TO FLOOD.

NORTH OF I-20...TEMPERATURES ARE STRUGGLING TO REACH 80 DEGREES.
THIS IS LIMITING INSTABILITY TO VALUES UNDER 1500J/KG. BUT IN
FAR NORTHERN ZONES...WHERE A PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL ENHANCE THE
FORCING ALOFT...DEEP SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION WILL OCCUR. THOUGH
STILL IN THE WARM SECTOR...THESE CELLS WILL BE CLOSER TO A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL BACK THE SURFACE WINDS...ENHANCING THE
TORNADO THREAT. AT THIS TIME...ONLY MONTAGUE AND COOKE ARE
INCLUDED IN A TORNADO WATCH THAT CONTINUES THROUGH 9 PM.

MUCH OF THIS CONVECTION IS DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WILL DISSIPATE
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT WILL BE NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TRANSITING SHORTWAVE ENERGY. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH...
BUT THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN WILL PERSIST.

DESPITE SOME SUBSIDENCE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING ON WEDNESDAY...THE
EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HELP DRAG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO
THE I-20/I-30 CORRIDORS AT PEAK HEATING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BUT THEIR
DURATION WILL DEPEND ON THE SPEED OF THE FRONT AND THE EXTENT OF
THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING A SOUTHWARD-MOVING COLD POOL THAT COULD
LIMIT THE LIFESPAN OF INDIVIDUAL UPDRAFTS. HOWEVER...STORM MOTION
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY COULD PROLONG ROTATING UPDRAFTS
SUFFICIENTLY FOR A FEW TORNADOES. THEN AGAIN...IF TOO MANY
UPDRAFTS ARE COMPETING...TRAINING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND A
RESULTING FLOOD THREAT MAY BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD.

DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF THE WEDNESDAY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...THE
FRONT MAY PASS THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA. EVEN THOUGH DEW POINTS WILL
BE REDUCED IN THE POSTFRONTAL AIR ON THURSDAY...OVERRUNNING 850MB
MOISTURE AND RENEWED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PREVENT A BREAK
IN THE WET PATTERN. RAIN CHANCES WILL STEADILY INCREASE INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...LIKELY DISRUPTING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. IT STILL
APPEARS THE MAIN EVENT WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WHEN A
POTENT SHORTWAVE TRACKS THROUGH NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE POSITION AND TIMING...THOUGH
THIS FAR OUT...THERE ARE UNSURPRISINGLY SOME DIFFERENCES IN
STRENGTH. WITH THE CURRENT PROJECTED TIMING...THE MAIN CONCERN
WOULD BE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND FLOODING.

25

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 109 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/
CONCERNS...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR REDEVELOPING
AFTER 06Z...GOING DOWN TO IFR BY 10Z WEDNESDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAD ALREADY DEVELOPED
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AS OF 1730Z. HAVE PLACED A TEMPO
TSRA FOR THE 19-24Z PERIOD IN THE METROPLEX AND WACO. EXPECT MVFR
CEILINGS TO SPREAD BACK NORTH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. CEILINGS SHOULD
LOWER TO IFR BY 10Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOR
NOW HAVE PLACED VSCH STARTING AT 10Z.

58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  70  83  61  74  62 /  60  50  50  40  40
WACO, TX              71  85  65  77  63 /  30  20  50  40  40
PARIS, TX             68  80  60  74  59 /  50  50  50  40  30
DENTON, TX            69  81  59  71  60 /  60  50  50  40  40
MCKINNEY, TX          69  81  60  74  60 /  60  50  50  40  30
DALLAS, TX            70  84  62  74  63 /  50  50  50  40  40
TERRELL, TX           70  83  63  77  62 /  40  40  50  40  30
CORSICANA, TX         70  84  65  77  64 /  30  30  50  40  30
TEMPLE, TX            69  84  67  78  64 /  20  20  40  40  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     68  81  59  71  60 /  50  50  50  40  50

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091-100>102-
115-116.

&&

58/25

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
400 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-201215-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
400 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW
STORMS COULD BRIEFLY REACH STRONG TO SEVERE LIMITS WITH
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. AN
ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ON TOP OF SATURATED SOILS MAY POSE A
FLOODING PROBLEM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ISOLATED AREAS OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY...ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN AND FLOODING.

SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WILL INCREASE THIS COMING WEEKEND...THOUGH
MANY UNCERTAINTIES EXIST ON OVERALL THREATS AND SYSTEM EVOLUTION
AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED MAINLY NORTHWEST OF A
LAMPASAS TO WACO TO ATHENS LINE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
250 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

TXZ134-192030-
ELLIS TX-
250 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ELLIS COUNTY UNTIL 330 PM CDT...

AT 250 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
BARDWELL...OR NEAR ENNIS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WAXAHACHIE...ENNIS...MIDLOTHIAN...RED OAK...FERRIS...PALMER...OAK
LEAF...BARDWELL...ALMA...GARRETT AND PECAN HILL.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...
 INTERSTATE 35E BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 392 AND 409.
 INTERSTATE 45 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 244 AND 266.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3215 9674 3240 9699 3255 9680 3255 9653
      3253 9651 3251 9650 3251 9651 3250 9650
      3248 9651 3243 9648 3241 9644 3235 9645
      3233 9643 3233 9638
TIME...MOT...LOC 1950Z 235DEG 25KT 3233 9675

AJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
326 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0316 PM     TORNADO          4 ENE WAXAHACHIE        32.42N  96.79W
05/19/2015                   ELLIS              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TORNADO 4 MILES EAST OF WAXAHACHIE. MEDIA VIDEO CONFIRMS
            TOUCHDOWN.