River Flood Warning 231, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
948 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

.UPDATE...
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS PART OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS THIS EVENING WITH SOME AREAS CONTINUING TO EXPERIENCE
FLOODING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST IS MOVING EAST AND
WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT. LIFT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH IS SPREADING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE AND NEW
CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS NEW
CONVECTION INDICATES THE BEGINNING OF ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS NEXT ROUND. STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS AS
NOTED ON THE FWD SOUNDING AND REGION VAD WIND PROFILES CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT RAIN DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING AND WILL AIDE IN
SUSTAINING THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN OVERNIGHT.

IN THE SHORT TERM...CONCERNS ARE GROWING FOR THE LINE OF STORMS
THAT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY FROM JOHNSON COUNTY SOUTHWEST TO
COMANCHE COUNTY AND EVEN FURTHER TO TOM GREEN COUNTY. IF THE
CELLS CONTINUE TO TRAIN OVER THIS AREA...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...STRONG STORMS MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES MAY BE PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND ALSO HEAVY RAINFALL.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION BUT WILL BEGIN ENDING ACROSS OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BEFORE DAYBREAK AS THE FRONT STARTS MOVING
INTO NORTH TEXAS. THIS NEXT ROUND OF RAIN SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION AT A DECENT SPEED AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST AND THE FRONT HELPS ADVANCE THE RAIN. HOWEVER...FLASH
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN WHERE HEAVY RAINS HAVE
ALREADY FALLEN AND WHERE HIGHER RAINFALL RATES OCCUR.
OVERNIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL FALL
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO
INCLUDE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM COMANCHE TO GRANBURY TO
ENNIS TO ATHENS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-3 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

JLDUNN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 654 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015/
/00Z TAFS/

CHALLENGES WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND CIGS THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS...AS WE AWAIT LINE OF NON-SEVERE STORMS TO THE
WEST OF I-35/I-35W. IN ADDITION...TIMING THE COLD FRONT AND
CHANGEOVER TO NORTH FLOW SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE CHALLENGING AS
WELL AND STILL LOOKS TO OCCUR BETWEEN 09Z-12Z SATURDAY AT DFW
METRO AIRPORTS AND BY 15Z AT WACO.

THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SWING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NEW
MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS AS OF 00Z. MOVEMENT OF THE SQUALL LINE
OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS CONTINUES TO BE EAST NEAR 20KTS WHICH
WILL BRING IT INTO WESTERN DFW METRO AIRPORTS BY 01Z AND DALLAS
LOVE FIELD AND ARLINGTON BY 0130Z. SOUTHERN PART OF LINE WILL BE
BE SLOWER TO PROGRESS EAST...AS CELLS WITHIN THE LINE MOVE NE
25KTS. IT/S LIKELY WACO REGIONAL WON/T SEE THE LINE UNTIL MID-
LATE EVENING.

MVFR CIGS...MOSTLY BELOW 2 KFT WILL CONTINUE NEXT 12-18 HRS WITH
OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS LIKELY WITH BOTH HEAVIER SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE
LINE AND WITH THE MAIN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA ITSELF. MVFR CIGS WILL
LINGER AS WELL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE
LIFTING TO VFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS 15-25KTS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE LINE OF
STORMS...WITH VARIABLE GUSTS WITHIN THE LINE...BEFORE VEERING
SLIGHTLY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST UNDER 10 KTS BEHIND THE LINE AND AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY MORNING...EXPECT
NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS MUCH OF THE DAY.

05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015/
A POWERFUL UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS THE
ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS REMAINING
NEAR A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. THE STORMS NEAR THE
WARM FRONT WILL HAVE AMPLE SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY AND BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND
EVEN A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO. THEREFORE...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WACO TO CENTERVILLE.

THE STORMS NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL ALSO BE
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
SOME FLASH FLOODING. THEREFORE...WE WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KILLEEN TO WACO TO
CORSICANA TO ATHENS FROM THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL NOON SATURDAY.
ALTHOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD STAY BETWEEN
ONE AND THREE INCHES. EVEN AMOUNTS IN THIS RANGE COULD RESULT IN
FLOODING ISSUES DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL AND ALREADY SATURATED
SOILS.

FARTHER NORTH...LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WEAK AND STORMS
THROUGH TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND GENERALLY BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS. HOWEVER...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...SOME HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN ENDING PRECIPITATION QUICKLY
AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS IN THE EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE REASON THE PRECIP WILL
END QUICKLY ON SATURDAY WILL BE AN INTRUSION OF ELEVATED DRY AIR
FROM THE SOUTHWEST (DRY SLOT) AND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL DRY AND COOL THE LOW LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS DRY
AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RESULT IN LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING IN THE 40S AND 50S.

THERE IS A BIT OF MODEL DISCREPANCY WITH REGARDS TO SUNDAY. THE
LATEST RUN OF THE GFS SLOWLY TRANSLATES THE UPPER LOW ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS AND WRAPS SOME ELEVATED MOISTURE AROUND IT AND PRODUCES
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. THE
CANADIAN SOLUTION ALSO SHOWS A SIMILAR SCENARIO BUT WITH LIGHTER
PRECIP AMOUNTS DISPLACED FARTHER SOUTH. THE OTHER MODELS ARE
FASTER IN LIFTING THE UPPER LOW TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND KEEP ALL
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE CWA. FOR NOW WE WILL BUMP
POPS UP TO 20 PERCENT ON SUNDAY MAINLY NORTH OF INTESTATE 20.
ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION BY SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW.

BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO START THE WORK WEEK BUT THIS
RIDGE WILL BE VERY TEMPORARY AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS
ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE BEGINNING TUESDAY AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL SET UP
ACROSS THE REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN/STORM CHANCES
INCREASING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. AS OF NOW...IT
APPEARS THAT THE RAIN SHOULD END SOMETIME ON FRIDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED NEXT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  64  74  55  73  53 /  90  30  10  20   5
WACO, TX              64  77  54  74  50 /  90  40  10  10   5
PARIS, TX             61  72  55  69  52 /  90  70  10  20  10
DENTON, TX            61  72  51  73  50 /  90  30  10  20   5
MCKINNEY, TX          63  73  53  72  51 /  90  30  10  20   5
DALLAS, TX            65  74  56  73  55 /  90  30  10  20   5
TERRELL, TX           64  75  55  71  52 /  90  50  10  20  10
CORSICANA, TX         65  77  57  73  54 /  90  60  10  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            65  77  54  75  51 /  90  40  10  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     59  71  49  75  48 /  80  20  10  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR TXZ130>135-
141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

05/82

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1005 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

TXZ118-119-133-134-145-310400-
JOHNSON TX-HILL TX-DALLAS TX-TARRANT TX-ELLIS TX-
1005 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN ELLIS...WESTERN DALLAS...
EASTERN JOHNSON...NORTH CENTRAL HILL AND SOUTHEASTERN TARRANT
COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 PM CDT...

AT 1005 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR KENNEDALE TO NEAR
COVINGTON...AND MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DALLAS...FORT WORTH...ARLINGTON...IRVING...GRAND PRAIRIE...
RICHARDSON...MANSFIELD...EULESS...DESOTO...CEDAR HILL...
DUNCANVILLE...BURLESON...LANCASTER...WAXAHACHIE...UNIVERSITY PARK...
MIDLOTHIAN...FOREST HILL...GLENN HEIGHTS...RED OAK AND HIGHLAND PARK.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...
 INTERSTATE 35W BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 9 AND 36.
 INTERSTATE 35E BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 383 AND 438.
 INTERSTATE 20 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 439 AND 472.
 INTERSTATE 820 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 27 AND 35.
 INTERSTATE 45 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 276 AND 284.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3214 9677 3219 9737 3276 9728 3297 9670
TIME...MOT...LOC 0305Z 263DEG 15KT 3268 9719 3221 9733

JLDUNN

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