River Flood Warning 149, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
112 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.AVIATION...
THE LEADING EDGE OF A LARGE BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD
MOVED TO THE EAST OF A LINE FROM KGYI /SHERMAN/ TO KDAL /DALLAS
LOVE FIELD/ TO KGRK /KILLEEN/. A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST 10Z...AND MAYBE 12Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SO HAVE KEPT A VCTS FOR THE
02-01Z PERIOD. EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME
VFR CEILINGS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING... 29/18Z
THROUGH 30/01Z. THE NORTH WINDS THAT ARE OCCURRING BEHIND THE BAND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD COME BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH
BEFORE DAYBREAK.

58

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE.
THE ATMOSPHERE IS MOIST AND UNSTABLE AS NOTED BY THE 18Z FWD
SOUNDING WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES OVER 3500 J/KG. THE FLOW
IS FAIRLY WEAK THROUGH THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SO STORMS
THAT DO FORM WILL BE FAIRLY SLOW MOVING AND EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS. THEREFORE...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP. THE EARLY CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH WITH
THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
WILL BE ORGANIZING IN WEST TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
APPROACH THE WESTERN ZONES LATER THIS EVENING AND MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND WIND
PRODUCERS AND THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING IN MANY
LOCATIONS. WE HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH
TO INCLUDE ALL NORTH TEXAS COUNTIES. THE WATCH WILL START AT 6 PM
TONIGHT AND RUN THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

WE HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS IN PLACE FRIDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF A LATER ARRIVAL OF THE WEST TEXAS STORMS.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE SQUALL LINE COULD
ADVANCE OUT AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE FRIDAY MORNING AND LEAVE MUCH
IF NOT ALL OF NORTH TEXAS IN SUBSIDENCE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON IT WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO ENTER INTO NORTH TEXAS.
THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. STORMS CHANCES SHOULD
DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE DRY/COOL AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT DEEPENS. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND SHOULD BRING AN END TO
ALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY SUNDAY EVENING.

THE EXTENDED MODELS HAVE BEEN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
REGARDS TO THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS NORTH TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE STATE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING IN THE GULF. THIS SHOULD BRING A TEMPORARY END TO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HOWEVER...THE GFS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A
CUT OFF LOW UNDER THE RIDGE AND PARKS IT NEAR THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IF THIS PATTERN
VERIFIES IT WOULD RESULT IN SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES. FOR NOW...WE WILL LEAVE POPS LOW FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AND CONFINE THEM ONLY TO THE EXTREME EASTERN ZONES.
OVERALL...NEXT WEEK LOOKS MUCH DRIER AND WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  67  81  68  83  65 /  60  60  30  10   5
WACO, TX              66  82  63  81  64 /  30  60  40  30   5
PARIS, TX             68  81  64  77  64 /  60  60  30  20  10
DENTON, TX            66  78  62  78  63 /  60  60  20  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          65  79  61  81  63 /  60  60  30  10   5
DALLAS, TX            69  80  65  83  66 /  60  60  30  10   5
TERRELL, TX           69  83  64  82  65 /  50  60  30  20   5
CORSICANA, TX         68  82  66  80  65 /  30  60  40  20   5
TEMPLE, TX            67  83  66  81  64 /  30  60  50  30  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     65  79  61  79  61 /  60  60  30  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR TXZ091>095-
100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

58/58

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1119 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-300430-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
1119 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE FROM CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THAT MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING. A FEW
STORMS SOUTH OF A COMANCHE TO HILLSBORO TO ATHENS MAY PRODUCE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN THAT
MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING. IN ADDITION...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH SATURDAY MAY BECOME
SEVERE...PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF A COMANCHE TO MIDLOTHIAN TO PARIS LINE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. SPOTTER ACTIVATION
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
238 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0237 AM     FLASH FLOOD      JOSHUA                  32.47N  97.38W
05/29/2015                   JOHNSON            TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            BRIDGE IS OUT ON OAK HILL ROAD IN JOSHUA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
312 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0306 AM     FLASH FLOOD      GARLAND                 32.92N  96.63W
05/29/2015                   DALLAS             TX   PUBLIC

            WATER APPROACHING THE DOORS OF ONE HOME ON RESISTOL IN
            GARLAND.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
313 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0309 AM     FLASH FLOOD      DALLAS                  32.77N  96.78W
05/29/2015                   DALLAS             TX   PUBLIC

            WATER COVERS THE YARD AND IS UP TO PORCHES NEAR 635 AND
            OATES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
324 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0322 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SW GARLAND            32.91N  96.64W
05/29/2015                   DALLAS             TX   PUBLIC

            MULTIPLE VEHICLES STUCK IN HIGH WATER ON NORTHWEST
            HIGHWAY AND GARLAND ROAD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
326 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0322 AM     FLASH FLOOD      GRAND PRAIRIE           32.75N  96.98W
05/29/2015                   DALLAS             TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            FIRST FLOOR APARTMENTS FLOODED ON 1000 SOUTH BELT LINE.
            RESIDENTS EVACUATED.

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