Flash Flood Warning 70, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
651 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION ONGOING FROM WICHITA FALLS
SOUTHWARD TO COLEMAN TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED CELLS PERSISTING FARTHER
EAST FROM NEAR MINERAL WELLS TO NW OF WACO. FOR NOW...BELIEVE
MOST CONVECTION WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST OF THE METROPLEX
TAF SITES...AND HAVE KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE INITIAL HOURS OF
THESE TAFS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY FAVORABLE
ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGH AT LEAST SUNSET. AS SUCH...MAY
NEED TO ADD VCTS TO AT LEAST THE KFTW...KAFW..AND KDFW TAFS...IF
CURRENT CONVECTION HOLDS TOGETHER.

OTHERWISE...ALL TAFS SHOW A TREND TOWARD MVFR CIGS BY 06Z...AND
EVENTUALLY IFR CIGS BY 10Z AS LOW CLOUDINESS EVOLVES IN MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT. SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
ANOTHER BAND OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF OKLAHOMA
AFTER 06Z...WITH THE DECAYING REMNANTS POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE
METROPLEX BY 10Z. CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT GREAT ON THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS ACTIVITY...BUT HAVE SHOWN AT LEAST VCSH CONDITIONS IN THE
METROPLEX AFTER 10Z. ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF
WACO THROUGH 12Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/
DUE TO PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE
GENERALLY COOLER THAN 24 HOURS EARLIER. BUT WITH DEW POINTS AROUND
70F AND LITTLE TO NO INHIBITION...CONVECTIVE CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS IN SIMILAR FASHION. MLCAPE VALUES
HAVE SOARED ABOVE 2000J/KG IN MANY AREAS SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR...WITH VALUES APPROACHING 2500J/KG IN FAR SOUTHERN ZONES
WHERE TEMPS HAVE REACHED THE MID 80S. PW VALUES NEARLY 2 INCHES IN
THESE AREAS WILL ASSURE CONSIDERABLE PRECIP LOADING IN STRONG
UPDRAFTS. DESPITE MORE PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT TODAY...THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN A FEW DOWNBURSTS...A SUBSET OF WHICH MAY REACH SEVERE
LIMITS AT THE SURFACE. SPEED SHEAR IS RATHER ORDINARY...BUT THE
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 3KM IS SUFFICIENT TO ROTATE THESE
STRONG UPDRAFTS. IN HIGH-INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENTS...TORNADOES CAN
OCCUR WITH THESE MINI-SUPERCELLS. ALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
REMAINS WEAK...IT HAS RECOVERED ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE SLOW-MOVING
MEANDERING STORMS WE ENCOUNTERED ON MONDAY. NONETHELESS...THE
FLOOD THREAT WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY AND
SATURATED SOILS. CREEKS AND STREAMS...AS WELL AS MAIN-STEM
RIVERS...REMAIN PRONE TO FLOOD.

NORTH OF I-20...TEMPERATURES ARE STRUGGLING TO REACH 80 DEGREES.
THIS IS LIMITING INSTABILITY TO VALUES UNDER 1500J/KG. BUT IN
FAR NORTHERN ZONES...WHERE A PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL ENHANCE THE
FORCING ALOFT...DEEP SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION WILL OCCUR. THOUGH
STILL IN THE WARM SECTOR...THESE CELLS WILL BE CLOSER TO A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL BACK THE SURFACE WINDS...ENHANCING THE
TORNADO THREAT. AT THIS TIME...ONLY MONTAGUE AND COOKE ARE
INCLUDED IN A TORNADO WATCH THAT CONTINUES THROUGH 9 PM.

MUCH OF THIS CONVECTION IS DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WILL DISSIPATE
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT WILL BE NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TRANSITING SHORTWAVE ENERGY. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH...
BUT THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN WILL PERSIST.

DESPITE SOME SUBSIDENCE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING ON WEDNESDAY...THE
EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HELP DRAG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO
THE I-20/I-30 CORRIDORS AT PEAK HEATING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BUT THEIR
DURATION WILL DEPEND ON THE SPEED OF THE FRONT AND THE EXTENT OF
THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING A SOUTHWARD-MOVING COLD POOL THAT COULD
LIMIT THE LIFESPAN OF INDIVIDUAL UPDRAFTS. HOWEVER...STORM MOTION
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY COULD PROLONG ROTATING UPDRAFTS
SUFFICIENTLY FOR A FEW TORNADOES. THEN AGAIN...IF TOO MANY
UPDRAFTS ARE COMPETING...TRAINING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND A
RESULTING FLOOD THREAT MAY BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD.

DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF THE WEDNESDAY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...THE
FRONT MAY PASS THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA. EVEN THOUGH DEW POINTS WILL
BE REDUCED IN THE POSTFRONTAL AIR ON THURSDAY...OVERRUNNING 850MB
MOISTURE AND RENEWED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PREVENT A BREAK
IN THE WET PATTERN. RAIN CHANCES WILL STEADILY INCREASE INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...LIKELY DISRUPTING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. IT STILL
APPEARS THE MAIN EVENT WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WHEN A
POTENT SHORTWAVE TRACKS THROUGH NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE POSITION AND TIMING...THOUGH
THIS FAR OUT...THERE ARE UNSURPRISINGLY SOME DIFFERENCES IN
STRENGTH. WITH THE CURRENT PROJECTED TIMING...THE MAIN CONCERN
WOULD BE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND FLOODING.

25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  70  83  61  74  62 /  60  50  50  40  40
WACO, TX              71  85  65  77  63 /  30  20  50  40  40
PARIS, TX             68  80  60  74  59 /  50  50  50  40  30
DENTON, TX            69  81  59  71  60 /  60  50  50  40  40
MCKINNEY, TX          69  81  60  74  60 /  60  50  50  40  30
DALLAS, TX            70  84  62  74  63 /  50  50  50  40  40
TERRELL, TX           70  83  63  77  62 /  40  40  50  40  30
CORSICANA, TX         70  84  65  77  64 /  30  30  50  40  30
TEMPLE, TX            69  84  67  78  64 /  20  20  40  40  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     68  81  59  71  60 /  50  50  50  40  50

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091-
100>102-115-116.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
400 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-201215-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
400 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW
STORMS COULD BRIEFLY REACH STRONG TO SEVERE LIMITS WITH
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. AN
ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ON TOP OF SATURATED SOILS MAY POSE A
FLOODING PROBLEM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ISOLATED AREAS OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY...ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN AND FLOODING.

SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WILL INCREASE THIS COMING WEEKEND...THOUGH
MANY UNCERTAINTIES EXIST ON OVERALL THREATS AND SYSTEM EVOLUTION
AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED MAINLY NORTHWEST OF A
LAMPASAS TO WACO TO ATHENS LINE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
750 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     TORNADO          10 NE MINERAL WELLS     32.90N  97.98W
05/19/2015                   PALO PINTO         TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
902 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

TXZ129-130-141-200245-
COMANCHE TX-EASTLAND TX-ERATH TX-
902 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL COMANCHE...
SOUTHEASTERN EASTLAND AND NORTHWESTERN ERATH COUNTIES UNTIL 945 PM
CDT...

AT 901 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES NORTHEAST OF GORMAN...OR 14 MILES SOUTHEAST OF RANGER...MOVING
EAST AT 45 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
STEPHENVILLE...GORMAN AND HUCKABAY.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3250 9827 3228 9817 3218 9826 3216 9872
      3236 9879
TIME...MOT...LOC 0201Z 258DEG 39KT 3229 9856

AJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
936 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0925 PM     HAIL             JACKSBORO               33.22N  98.17W
05/19/2015  E1.75 INCH       JACK               TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL AT 380 & 1156

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1009 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     TSTM WND DMG     RUNAWAY BAY             33.17N  97.87W
05/19/2015                   WISE               TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROOFS REPORTED OFF TWO SEPARATE APARTMENT BUILDINGS IN
            RUNAWAY BAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1029 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1023 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 E RUNAWAY BAY         33.17N  97.81W
05/19/2015                   WISE               TX   PUBLIC

            MAJOR DAMAGE TO AT LEAST 2 HOUSES NEAR 3312 FM 920
            BETWEEN RUNAWAY BAY AND PARADISE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1031 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1023 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BOONSVILLE              33.07N  97.87W
05/19/2015                   WISE               TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LARGE TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN. RESIDENTIAL STRUCTURES
            COLLAPSED NEAR CR 3655 AND FM 920